MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions
YouDidntDidYou
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Seasonal flucuation for all... revenues down the same as units (but about 18%, not 43%)
In reply to jim stirling, May 4, 2013

Did I say Mft was dominating the market??? No, well then.
Mft is the largests selling mount in Japan and parts of SE Asia.
Mirrorless has 49% market shere in Japan
MIrrorless has 41% in SE Asia
Mirrorless has 20% in Europe (probably nearer 30% in the  UK)
Mirrorless has 14% in North America
This is all from a standing start that started just over 4 years ago.
re Pixmania I've been monitoring them for over 3 years (and using them or 6 years it was where I bought my 10+ Canon Pixma and Selphyr prints from) because I've had under consideration to set up a mft only camera store via their dropshipping service with a prestashop add on.
In the last year or so, Pixmania have announced falling profits and sales at the same time have started to allow third party sellers in their camera listings, also some of the camera popularity rankings have started to look a little skew whiff with unusual colour or kit choices or brands (eg Samsung) appearing high in their list so personally I lend less credence to their rankings now.
Likewise I've never lent credence to Amazon rankings even if it was in favour of mft (for various reasons previously stated on dpreview).
As regards to Flickr performance of the E-M5 and D800 I had already been monitoring them!
For the E-M5 to have about 60% of the amount of images uploaded is pretty good by anyone's standard. If you analyse the figures further you would see that E-M5 users post more images from their cameras suggesting they get better value and enjoyment out of their cameras.Their posts on flickr forums are also more happier and less problematic....
Why do you insists on making snidey personal attacks in your replys?
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MichaelKJ
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Re: Seasonal flucuation for all... revenues down the same as units (but about 18%, not 43%)
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, May 4, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Did I say Mft was dominating the market??? No, well then.
Mft is the largests selling mount in Japan and parts of SE Asia.
Mirrorless has 49% market shere in Japan
MIrrorless has 41% in SE Asia
Mirrorless has 20% in Europe (probably nearer 30% in the  UK)
Mirrorless has 14% in North America
This is all from a standing start that started just over 4 years ago.
re Pixmania I've been monitoring them for over 3 years (and using them or 6 years it was where I bought my 10+ Canon Pixma and Selphyr prints from) because I've had under consideration to set up a mft only camera store via their dropshipping service with a prestashop add on.
In the last year or so, Pixmania have announced falling profits and sales at the same time have started to allow third party sellers in their camera listings, also some of the camera popularity rankings have started to look a little skew whiff with unusual colour or kit choices or brands (eg Samsung) appearing high in their list so personally I lend less credence to their rankings now.
Likewise I've never lent credence to Amazon rankings even if it was in favour of mft (for various reasons previously stated on dpreview).
As regards to Flickr performance of the E-M5 and D800 I had already been monitoring them!
For the E-M5 to have about 60% of the amount of images uploaded is pretty good by anyone's standard. If you analyse the figures further you would see that E-M5 users post more images from their cameras suggesting they get better value and enjoyment out of their cameras.Their posts on flickr forums are also more happier and less problematic....
Why do you insists on making snidey personal attacks in your replys?
living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

As usual, you can't be bothered to provide sources to support you claims.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: Seasonal fluctuation for all... revenues down the same as units
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, May 4, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

The current Mirrorless share of the interchangeable market in Japan is 49.4%....not bad in a little over 4 years?

No increase in market share over the past year.

Re: The Canon EOS M The Future of EOS M [CR1]http://www.canonrumors.com/2013/04/the-future-of-eos-m-cr1/  "Spluttered out of the gate
The Canon EOS M system hasn’t been the sales success Canon had hoped. Bad press about the autofocus and lack of lenses are probably big reasons why. There’s also a feeling Canon isn’t totally committed to the mirrorless market, as the segment hasn’t really been a dominant player in the United States, like it has in parts of Asia...."

BCN data suggest that the EOS-M has increased in popularity recently.  With EOS-M comprising 3 of the top 4 mirrorless cameras in Japan in April, if its sales have been disappointing, what does that imply about the sales of other mirrorless?

Micro Four Thirds is the top selling mount in Japan.

Let's hope it continues to be. Maybe you aren't surprised that the best selling Panasonic didn't make the top 20 last month, but I am.

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Marty4650
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Why none of this matters
In reply to MichaelKJ, May 4, 2013

First of all, we don't know if this means "MFT sales are down." These figures are for mirrorless cameras as a whole, and it could mean that some of the other brands (Samsung, Pentax, Nikon, etc.) are down, with NEX and M4/3 being up.

But even if MFT sales are actually down it could also mean the pipeline has been filled, since these aren't "sales numbers" at all, just shipments to distributors.

Like any new technology the biggest growth is during the first year, until everyone who wants one has one. Then, after that, you only have new users coming on and replacement models for upgrades.The same thing happened for TVs, computers, and other electronic devices. Once everyone who wants one has one, the only sales left are for replacements.

But the most important thing to remember is that even at a 4:1 sales ratio compared to DSLRs, MILC cameras have grabbed a huge chunk of the ILC market. Prior to 2009, that ratio was 4:0 with DSLRs getting 100% of that market. Today, they are getting only 75% or so.

Did anyone honestly expect MILC cameras to drive DSLRs out of the marketplace? A 25% market penetration is a pretty big deal for any consumer product.

We have had cars for over 100 years now, and some people still prefer riding horses!

HOORAY! Someone still wants me! And I don't just mean Taco Bell!

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Alan Lai
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Re: Again, this says little too
In reply to Jorginho, May 4, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

We need answers if we want to know, not assumptioms.

1) Are people shooting more with iPhones etc simply because they make it easy?

2) Are they eroding all camera sales?

3) are they eroding P&S sales?

4) Are they also enhancing sales, as people get more interested in photgraphy but want better IQ (in the short run, or in the long run?)?

It is not that easy, but I suspect that the specialized camera's that are meant for people interested in pjhotgraphy will be less affected than P&S cams.

From what I've seen,

1) Yes. You don't have to carry an extra equipment to take pictures. Since everything now is revolving around social network and cute cat pictures, nobody wants a dedicated camera and they can't tell the qualitative differences between a picture taken by a good camera and a phone.

2) Since the majority of camera sales are made up with casual "picture takers". In that sense, the answer is yes.

3) Definitely.

4) Refer to point #1. This argument is only valid when the said people can actually SEE the differences and WANT to take better pictures. It also depends on whether they perceive the value of shelling out $1000 for a piece of equipment can ONLY take pictures. And from what I've seen, the majority of people wants smartphone instead of dedicated camera.

There are no assumptions. If you look at the flag ship smartphone trend from the last few years, where the manufacturers put so much effort in building a better phone camera, you just know that most people don't like dedicated camera.

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Eamon Hickey
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mirrorless ILC market should not be saturated yet
In reply to Marty4650, May 4, 2013

Marty4650 wrote:

Like any new technology the biggest growth is during the first year, until everyone who wants one has one.

Often the biggest rate of growth is early, but that's partly a mathematical quirk -- it's easy to achieve impressive growth rates when you're starting from zero.

Then, after that, you only have new users coming on and replacement models for upgrades.The same thing happened for TVs, computers, and other electronic devices. Once everyone who wants one has one, the only sales left are for replacements.

Most consumer product markets don't saturate in just two or three years. DSLR sales, for example, have grown every year for more than a decade (except maybe the year following the financial collapse -- not sure of my memory on that). They just keep going up. (This year may be different.) Compact digital camera sales grew every year from about 1995 to 2008 or so before they effectively leveled off (and they have been falling quickly for the last three years or so -- that market is indeed saturated, and now shrinking in the face of disruptive competition from smartphones).

I don't know the figures for smartphones, but I'd be amazed if they haven't grown significantly every year for the past 7 or 8 years, including the year following the financial collapse.

The total unit market size for mirrorless ILC cameras is still far below the unit market size for mirrored ILC cameras (i.e. DSLRs). There's no reason why mirrorless can't achieve similar or higher unit numbers. Indeed, at the introduction of the m4/3rds format, Panasonic predicted that within 5-10 years the total unit market for ILC cameras would near 30 million units per year. I was skeptical, but I now think Panasonic will probably turn out to be right. The ILC unit market is now just about 20 million units per year (as opposed to about 12 million when Panasonic made their prediction). Last year, mirrorless ILC shipments were 4 million units, as opposed to 16 million DSLRs.

In other words, there's still plenty of room for mirrorless growth. It shouldn't stall out at 4 million units annually. I don't think it will. I think there's little doubt that it will eventually overtake DSLR unit sales (although I expect there will still be a healthy business in DSLRs for many, many years).

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Marty4650
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I tend to agree
In reply to Eamon Hickey, May 4, 2013

I agree that MILC camera sales will grow, and eventually own more than half the ILC market.

But I disagree that it will happen anytime soon. It will probably take at least another ten years for this to happen, because there are still several issues that need to be addressed. Things like PDAF on MILC cameras, better EVFs, better performance for sports and action photography, etc. But I do think every one of these problems will eventually be solved, and it will happen.

So we just disagree on how soon.

Plus there are some powerful incentives for both the manufacturer and consumer that will drive  MILC camera sales in the future:

For the consumers:

  • Smaller and lighter cameras.... which means:
  • MILCs will have wider appeal for young people, women and seniors
  • Much more discrete, you won't be "the camera geek" anymore
  • Each generation of MILC cameras gets more capable
  • the MILC lens catalogs are starting to look good

For the manufacturer:

  • FF profits are nice, but they need products with mass market appeal
  • MILCs are cheaper to build with more profit potential
  • a new opportunity to sell more lenses to people who already own lenses
  • Finally, something new to sell. And it might even become trendy.
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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Seasonal flucuation for all... revenues down the same as units (but about 18%, not 43%)
In reply to MichaelKJ, May 4, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Did I say Mft was dominating the market??? No, well then.
Mft is the largests selling mount in Japan and parts of SE Asia.
Mirrorless has 49% market shere in Japan
MIrrorless has 41% in SE Asia
Mirrorless has 20% in Europe (probably nearer 30% in the  UK)
Mirrorless has 14% in North America
This is all from a standing start that started just over 4 years ago.
re Pixmania I've been monitoring them for over 3 years (and using them or 6 years it was where I bought my 10+ Canon Pixma and Selphyr prints from) because I've had under consideration to set up a mft only camera store via their dropshipping service with a prestashop add on.
In the last year or so, Pixmania have announced falling profits and sales at the same time have started to allow third party sellers in their camera listings, also some of the camera popularity rankings have started to look a little skew whiff with unusual colour or kit choices or brands (eg Samsung) appearing high in their list so personally I lend less credence to their rankings now.
Likewise I've never lent credence to Amazon rankings even if it was in favour of mft (for various reasons previously stated on dpreview).
As regards to Flickr performance of the E-M5 and D800 I had already been monitoring them!
For the E-M5 to have about 60% of the amount of images uploaded is pretty good by anyone's standard. If you analyse the figures further you would see that E-M5 users post more images from their cameras suggesting they get better value and enjoyment out of their cameras.Their posts on flickr forums are also more happier and less problematic....
Why do you insists on making snidey personal attacks in your replys?
living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

As usual, you can't be bothered to provide sources to support you claims.

Erm you have seen the graphs and figures here on dpreview and on 43rumors, some have also be on petapixel etc.Flickr  stats can easily be checked yourself and should be simple to analyse....

living life to the Four Thirds!
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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Seasonal fluctuation for all... revenues down the same as units
In reply to MichaelKJ, May 4, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

The current Mirrorless share of the interchangeable market in Japan is 49.4%....not bad in a little over 4 years?

No increase in market share over the past year.

Re: The Canon EOS M The Future of EOS M [CR1]http://www.canonrumors.com/2013/04/the-future-of-eos-m-cr1/  "Spluttered out of the gate
The Canon EOS M system hasn’t been the sales success Canon had hoped. Bad press about the autofocus and lack of lenses are probably big reasons why. There’s also a feeling Canon isn’t totally committed to the mirrorless market, as the segment hasn’t really been a dominant player in the United States, like it has in parts of Asia...."

BCN data suggest that the EOS-M has increased in popularity recently.  With EOS-M comprising 3 of the top 4 mirrorless cameras in Japan in April, if its sales have been disappointing, what does that imply about the sales of other mirrorless?

Micro Four Thirds is the top selling mount in Japan.

Let's hope it continues to be. Maybe you aren't surprised that the best selling Panasonic didn't make the top 20 last month, but I am.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

1. Nor a decrease even though Mft has reduced it's targeting of camera joshi and is now more focused on canikon's traditional natural bread and butter customer.

2.EOS M sales imply zero about Mft sales.EOS M actually mirrors Nikon 1 trend and they'll end up in the exact same predicament.

3.Panny are doing 85% right, they were doing about 70%they'll get there, they need to lead more with design and technology,  introduce more innovation, better marketing and be more assertive...
living life to the Four Thirds!
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MichaelKJ
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Re: Seasonal flucuation for all... revenues down the same as units (but about 18%, not 43%)
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, May 4, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Did I say Mft was dominating the market??? No, well then.
Mft is the largests selling mount in Japan and parts of SE Asia.
Mirrorless has 49% market shere in Japan
MIrrorless has 41% in SE Asia
Mirrorless has 20% in Europe (probably nearer 30% in the  UK)
Mirrorless has 14% in North America
This is all from a standing start that started just over 4 years ago.
re Pixmania I've been monitoring them for over 3 years (and using them or 6 years it was where I bought my 10+ Canon Pixma and Selphyr prints from) because I've had under consideration to set up a mft only camera store via their dropshipping service with a prestashop add on.
In the last year or so, Pixmania have announced falling profits and sales at the same time have started to allow third party sellers in their camera listings, also some of the camera popularity rankings have started to look a little skew whiff with unusual colour or kit choices or brands (eg Samsung) appearing high in their list so personally I lend less credence to their rankings now.
Likewise I've never lent credence to Amazon rankings even if it was in favour of mft (for various reasons previously stated on dpreview).
As regards to Flickr performance of the E-M5 and D800 I had already been monitoring them!
For the E-M5 to have about 60% of the amount of images uploaded is pretty good by anyone's standard. If you analyse the figures further you would see that E-M5 users post more images from their cameras suggesting they get better value and enjoyment out of their cameras.Their posts on flickr forums are also more happier and less problematic....
Why do you insists on making snidey personal attacks in your replys?
living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

As usual, you can't be bothered to provide sources to support you claims.

Erm you have seen the graphs and figures here on dpreview and on 43rumors, some have also be on petapixel etc.Flickr  stats can easily be checked yourself and should be simple to analyse....

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Unlike Jim Pilcher, you apparently can't be bothered to take the time to back up your claims. Imo, your credibility f your claims suffers when you can't take the trouble to back up your claims.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: Seasonal fluctuation for all... revenues down the same as units
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, May 4, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

The current Mirrorless share of the interchangeable market in Japan is 49.4%....not bad in a little over 4 years?

No increase in market share over the past year.

Re: The Canon EOS M The Future of EOS M [CR1]http://www.canonrumors.com/2013/04/the-future-of-eos-m-cr1/  "Spluttered out of the gate
The Canon EOS M system hasn’t been the sales success Canon had hoped. Bad press about the autofocus and lack of lenses are probably big reasons why. There’s also a feeling Canon isn’t totally committed to the mirrorless market, as the segment hasn’t really been a dominant player in the United States, like it has in parts of Asia...."

BCN data suggest that the EOS-M has increased in popularity recently.  With EOS-M comprising 3 of the top 4 mirrorless cameras in Japan in April, if its sales have been disappointing, what does that imply about the sales of other mirrorless?

Micro Four Thirds is the top selling mount in Japan.

Let's hope it continues to be. Maybe you aren't surprised that the best selling Panasonic didn't make the top 20 last month, but I am.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

1. Nor a decrease even though Mft has reduced it's targeting of camera joshi and is now more focused on canikon's traditional natural bread and butter customer.

CIPA data indicate less than 1% difference in price per MFT camera in first quarter of 2013 versus first quarter of 2012. This suggests that the success of the E-M5 was countered by sales at bargain basement prices of outdated MFT models.

2.EOS M sales imply zero about Mft sales.EOS M actually mirrors Nikon 1 trend and they'll end up in the exact same predicament.

Please explain why EOS M having 3 models in the top 20 for April in Japan says nothing about MFT sales.  Are you assuming that the EOS M is a competitor camera?

3.Panny are doing 85% right, they were doing about 70%they'll get there, they need to lead more with design and technology,  introduce more innovation, better marketing and be more assertive...

They make excellent cameras, but recent Japanese sales data are discouraging.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Seasonal flucuation for all... revenues down the same as units (but about 18%, not 43%)
In reply to MichaelKJ, May 4, 2013

Erm its quite difficult to embed image links from a smartphone on dpreview.Also there is large cross readership between this forum and 43rumors, I would that the majority if that cross readership don't suffer short term memory loss.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Seasonal fluctuation for all... revenues down the same as units
In reply to MichaelKJ, May 4, 2013

1. In the eyes of those consumers that purchased those "basement priced" Mft models they are not out of date.For Panny and Oly they represent an future upgrade path and potential lens purchasers.

2. As acknowledged this is a low quarter (seasonal me thinks) example its better to have a Christmas week number 1 than it would be to have a late January number 1 single.Also Mft has weight of numbers....ie the sum of parts.

3. Panny is a company that thinks and focuses global, Olympus is focusing on Japan, SE Asia, UK, Germany,China, Spain then secondary on North America, Italy etc because their imaging division has less resources...

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Rriley
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Re: I tend to agree
In reply to Marty4650, May 5, 2013

Marty4650 wrote:

I agree that MILC camera sales will grow, and eventually own more than half the ILC market.

But I disagree that it will happen anytime soon. It will probably take at least another ten years for this to happen, because there are still several issues that need to be addressed. Things like PDAF on MILC cameras, better EVFs, better performance for sports and action photography, etc. But I do think every one of these problems will eventually be solved, and it will happen.

I dont think tech matters as much as all that for a large proportion of the market. I think that most sales occur in the base camera groups, where most people are going to look at what seems to them be a 'good brand', in the lowest pricing brackets. This group would largely be unaware of the finer aspects of the cameras they are at first attracted too.

In support of that BCN Data reveals the effect price has on camera sales, just look over their charts

and BTW, gone is the attachment of high Mp cameras to sales, that in itself is a judgement on 'tech'. Just like we couldnt say there is that much 'known difference' between Nikons D3100/5100 series (22.4% share) and less sales performing D3200/5200 series, the difference is led on price.

So we just disagree on how soon.

Plus there are some powerful incentives for both the manufacturer and consumer that will drive  MILC camera sales in the future:

For the consumers:

  • Smaller and lighter cameras.... which means:
  • MILCs will have wider appeal for young people, women and seniors
  • Much more discrete, you won't be "the camera geek" anymore
  • Each generation of MILC cameras gets more capable
  • the MILC lens catalogs are starting to look good

For the manufacturer:

  • FF profits are nice, but they need products with mass market appeal
  • MILCs are cheaper to build with more profit potential
  • a new opportunity to sell more lenses to people who already own lenses
  • Finally, something new to sell. And it might even become trendy.

With high end APSC being withdrawn from the market, cheap FF has become high end APSC. The high end APSC category has simply disappeared from the product sheets because cheap FF 'must' be supported by volume to aid its sales. While that guarantees some persuasion for success, it will also drive some buyers down into mid range ($1200) APSC such as D7000/D7100, resulting in potentially lost income in sales from cheap FF where I think its intended to be heading to $1800. Not much meat in low end FF sales me thinks and I think thats where their strategy is a little faulted.

That in itself is no bad thing either, as it pushes the APSC volume generating lines which we have to admit is where the core of the money is, and the crowning achievement of greatest market share as incentive. So theres that voluntary evacuation between $1200-$1800, the low end of that is where i would expect any 'pro' offering in m43 and indeed 43rds as m43rds appears to straddle across C&N  price paths while C&N stagger each other.

With lower parts count and less in material weight ultimately mirrorless are in a far better position to subsist in the area of low budget cameras, and  will have a stronger commonality to higher end mirrorless cameras. People can suppose cameras are dumped onto the market (not that I am accusing you of this), I would contend they continue to exist to service the bottom of the market, that is exactly what I would be doing if I were them anyway. Why else would D3100 continue to exist, these cameras are kept in production for a purpose, that purpose is based on costs.

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Marty4650
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Riley, you make a good point
In reply to Rriley, May 5, 2013

The only times where cameras get dumped is when they are discontinued, replaced by newer models, or simply when someone blundered by building too many of them, expecting a sales share that never materialized. I think the later is what happened with the EPL1, since they built so many of them that there are new bodies selling for under $200 today.

I also think Olympus learned from this and used more conservative forecasts after that. The OM-D is still selling for very close to list price more than a year after introduction. There doesn't seem to be very many left over E-P3s. This was a smart business decision by Olympus.

This market pretty much operates by pull and not push.  The most successful companies build what people want, not what they can sell for the cheapest prices. Nikon and Canon have been successful because they have built what people want. And while it may seem like "APSC is dead" Nikon and Canon still continue to build these APSC cameras and sell them in much greater quantity than FF and MILC cameras combined. Again, a smart business decision by Canikon.

I also think the term "cheap full frame camera" is a misnomer. There are some stripped down models that are cheaper, but they are still not cheap by any means. The cheapest full frame cameras still cost twice as much as a good APSC camera, and make the OM-D and GH3 look like relative bargains. And once you go beyond the "nifty fifty lens with a plastic mount" the better full frame lenses certainly aren't cheap.

But "cheap" is a relative term. The Canon 6D and the Nikon D600 are only cheap when you compare them to a Canon 1Dx or a Nikon D4. They are pretty expensive when you compare them to a Canon 60D or Nikon D7100, which are cameras better suited for amateur shooters.

Putting it plainly, full frame will always be a niche product for high end users. It has become the new medium format. Even if the makers can someday get the price down to $499, they will still be too large and heavy for most users. Most of the mass market thinks that even M4/3 is too big, and prefer their camera phones. Canikon might be going in the wrong direction with these. But, like I said, they cover all the bases too.

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YouDidntDidYou
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incredible GF5 and EM5!!
In reply to Rriley, May 5, 2013

Thanks for those figures they show a truly incredible sales performance of the GF5 and EM5 which didn't hit retail until May and April 2012 but were well placed.

Judging by the higher selling and more stable price of the EM5 it must easily be the most profitable mirrorless camera ever

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YouDidntDidYou
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EPL1 sales
In reply to Marty4650, May 5, 2013

The EPL1 was produced in the right quantities and sold at the right price for the right amount of time.

It was sold to camera joshi, successfully creating , targeting and saturating that market before anyone else.Also it was used as a starter camera, there is many an EM5 and EP3 owner on here and flickr  who began on the EPL1

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Rriley
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Re: Riley, you make a good point
In reply to Marty4650, May 5, 2013

Marty4650 wrote:

The only times where cameras get dumped is when they are discontinued, replaced by newer models, or simply when someone blundered by building too many of them, expecting a sales share that never materialized. I think the later is what happened with the EPL1, since they built so many of them that there are new bodies selling for under $200 today.

Remember from the beginning EPL1 looked different and was sized slightly differently than the surrounding Pen models. Thats testament to how cheap a camera can be, where I suspect that models such as EPL1 have been especially designed for volume production and farmed out to one of the third string makers such as Sharp. Sharp were owned by Panasonic, not sure if they still are but the 3 have had a long relationship. Its said that Sharp built the E-1 and designed much of the sub assembly.

I also think Olympus learned from this and used more conservative forecasts after that. The OM-D is still selling for very close to list price more than a year after introduction. There doesn't seem to be very many left over E-P3s. This was a smart business decision by Olympus.

I think this is the flip side to the pricing strategy that existed in the E410/510 days, which saw some odd occurrences in pricing that became globally difficult to track with world currency fluctuations a too little a buffer. Without keen observation stock ends up being squirreled away below cost, which is counter to what they are here for.

In the here and now, essentially both push and pull marketing strategies can be happening at the same time, just with different models from different plants, but also with different purposes.

This market pretty much operates by pull and not push.  The most successful companies build what people want, not what they can sell for the cheapest prices. Nikon and Canon have been successful because they have built what people want. And while it may seem like "APSC is dead" Nikon and Canon still continue to build these APSC cameras and sell them in much greater quantity than FF and MILC cameras combined. Again, a smart business decision by Canikon.

It goes to the inflexibility of volume manufacture, where these days high volume plant are designed around products especially suitable for volume manufacture. The component fit, the tolerances, the use of machine screws, IC circuits and modular components meld together with a trained workforce with such synchronicity the plant cannot operate at much above or below its designed output.

Its a manufacturing process that sees the holder in it for the long haul through good times and unexpected market downturns. So from a pure statistic point of view a market downturn might have little effect on plant output and subsequent sales numbers, but prices and therefore profit will certainly suffer. Volume manufacture releases the rewards in the good times, but is a lead weight around a companies neck in the bad or uncertain times.

I also think the term "cheap full frame camera" is a misnomer. There are some stripped down models that are cheaper, but they are still not cheap by any means. The cheapest full frame cameras still cost twice as much as a good APSC camera, and make the OM-D and GH3 look like relative bargains. And once you go beyond the "nifty fifty lens with a plastic mount" the better full frame lenses certainly aren't cheap.

I think the intent is to bring cheap FF down to high end APSC prices, historically around $1700-1800 is the place to be. We will see this in the near future, maybe a year or so out.

But "cheap" is a relative term. The Canon 6D and the Nikon D600 are only cheap when you compare them to a Canon 1Dx or a Nikon D4. They are pretty expensive when you compare them to a Canon 60D or Nikon D7100, which are cameras better suited for amateur shooters.

Putting it plainly, full frame will always be a niche product for high end users. It has become the new medium format. Even if the makers can someday get the price down to $499, they will still be too large and heavy for most users. Most of the mass market thinks that even M4/3 is too big, and prefer their camera phones. Canikon might be going in the wrong direction with these. But, like I said, they cover all the bases too.

Yes I think FF is a niche too, but Olympus entire operation is one of a niche builder or should be. For which I think Fuji do this more successfully from the product design standpoint, and weve seen Fuji consolidate this IP over the last few years. The question is, is it profitable and can they continue to innovate.

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Riley
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Re: Seasonal fluctuation for all... revenues down the same as units
In reply to MichaelKJ, May 7, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

The current Mirrorless share of the interchangeable market in Japan is 49.4%....not bad in a little over 4 years?

No increase in market share over the past year.

Re: The Canon EOS M The Future of EOS M [CR1]http://www.canonrumors.com/2013/04/the-future-of-eos-m-cr1/  "Spluttered out of the gate
The Canon EOS M system hasn’t been the sales success Canon had hoped. Bad press about the autofocus and lack of lenses are probably big reasons why. There’s also a feeling Canon isn’t totally committed to the mirrorless market, as the segment hasn’t really been a dominant player in the United States, like it has in parts of Asia...."

BCN data suggest that the EOS-M has increased in popularity recently.  With EOS-M comprising 3 of the top 4 mirrorless cameras in Japan in April, if its sales have been disappointing, what does that imply about the sales of other mirrorless?

I havent checked so I can take your word for it
however its plain you werent looking at aggregate sales

as it happens, P&O have just over 50% of the mirrorless market
last time I looked BCN Data didnt have EOS even in the top 10 (aggregate)

CIPA Data

Im thinking the previous year was an up year, and to extent this is just more normalised data

Micro Four Thirds is the top selling mount in Japan.

Let's hope it continues to be. Maybe you aren't surprised that the best selling Panasonic didn't make the top 20 last month, but I am.

volume isnt about profit, Panasonic have enough problems

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No, this is not why.
In reply to Grobb, May 7, 2013

tron555 wrote:

Its because people thinking about getting a m4/3 camera and come across a post like this: http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/51378681 That entire thread is all about people trying to figure out which apertures and focal lengths each of their very expensive lenses take sharp images?!?! It seems like you can’t get a good current m4/3 camera, buy 2 good lenses (short/long) and get sharp images from corner to corner. It seems from reading that entire thread that you need at least 4-5 expensive lenses to cover all your needs. Is it possible some people are coming to the conclusion that sure, you can spend $4-600 on a very good m4/3 camera, BUT you need to spend at least another $1-1,500 (or more) on an entire arsenal of specialized lenses? That is the only thing stopping me from purchasing my first m4/3 (E-PL5) right now. Is it not possible to just have a short/long range reasonably prices lenses and get reasonably sharp images from corner to corner across the focal range? If no, this makes purchasing a m4/3 camera system a very costly and complicated process. Especially from people coming from fixed lens camera's that do not have to contend with those kind of issues or expenses and possibly frustrations.

The line of reasoning promoted in the text above is not at all typical of how users are making decisions about what camera, which lenses, or what system to buy into. You are way over thinking the process (and speculating without supporting data) and then drawing unfounded conclusions about purchasing decisions.

The idea that you can't get reasonably sharp images from any particular M43 lens (with the exception of the 15mm Oly) is baseless. Even the lowly regarded Oly 17mm and 14-42 kit lenses are capable of printing up to 13"x19" with acceptable results.

Dan

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