MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions
YouDidntDidYou
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Eyes wide shut?
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 29, 2013

Lol I need to read the useless article more carefully look at your title of this thread.

Why did he pick just 5 quarters and not 9, 14 or 19?Likewise his title of the article " mirrorless shipments down year to year" is misleading there is no full year comparisons in the article!

Furthermore he suggests that the EM5, GX1 and X PRo 1have been poor sellers, when in all likelihood its been the Nikon1, EOS M and Pentax Q that have been the poor sellers.

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

At the end of the day micro four thirds has the momentum and growing market share and is stealing sales that should of been canikon DSLR and they are doing the same in the video.

Eyes wide shut?

fyi: EM5 has been produced in batches of 8000 each six weeks.

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meland
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 29, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Lol I need to read the useless article more carefully look at your title of this thread.

Why did he pick just 5 quarters and not 9, 14 or 19?Likewise his title of the article " mirrorless shipments down year to year" is misleading there is no full year comparisons in the article!

Furthermore he suggests that the EM5, GX1 and X PRo 1have been poor sellers, when in all likelihood its been the Nikon1, EOS M and Pentax Q that have been the poor sellers.

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

At the end of the day micro four thirds has the momentum and growing market share and is stealing sales that should of been canikon DSLR and they are doing the same in the video.

Eyes wide shut?

fyi: EM5 has been produced in batches of 8000 each six weeks.

Which does seem quite good, until you realise that the EOS 5DIII is produced at 30,000 per month.

living life to the Four Thirds!
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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to meland, Apr 29, 2013

meland wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Lol I need to read the useless article more carefully look at your title of this thread.

Why did he pick just 5 quarters and not 9, 14 or 19?Likewise his title of the article " mirrorless shipments down year to year" is misleading there is no full year comparisons in the article!

Furthermore he suggests that the EM5, GX1 and X PRo 1have been poor sellers, when in all likelihood its been the Nikon1, EOS M and Pentax Q that have been the poor sellers.

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

At the end of the day micro four thirds has the momentum and growing market share and is stealing sales that should of been canikon DSLR and they are doing the same in the video.

Eyes wide shut?

fyi: EM5 has been produced in batches of 8000 each six weeks.

Which does seem quite good, until you realise that the EOS 5DIII is produced at 30,000 per month.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

8,000 batch is for the European market as evidenced from Oly statement about cracked screen problem ie serial number range and date of production range and where EM5's were destined for...

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

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meland
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 29, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

meland wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Lol I need to read the useless article more carefully look at your title of this thread.

Why did he pick just 5 quarters and not 9, 14 or 19?Likewise his title of the article " mirrorless shipments down year to year" is misleading there is no full year comparisons in the article!

Furthermore he suggests that the EM5, GX1 and X PRo 1have been poor sellers, when in all likelihood its been the Nikon1, EOS M and Pentax Q that have been the poor sellers.

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

At the end of the day micro four thirds has the momentum and growing market share and is stealing sales that should of been canikon DSLR and they are doing the same in the video.

Eyes wide shut?

fyi: EM5 has been produced in batches of 8000 each six weeks.

Which does seem quite good, until you realise that the EOS 5DIII is produced at 30,000 per month.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

8,000 batch is for the European market as evidenced from Oly statement about cracked screen problem ie serial number range and date of production range and where EM5's were destined for...

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Europe takes approximately 1/3rd of global production so those figures do look a bit more healthy.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 30, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Lol I need to read the useless article more carefully look at your title of this thread.

Why did he pick just 5 quarters and not 9, 14 or 19?

Because CIPA didn't start reporting mirrorless shipments until the first quarter of 2012. ILC shipments for 2011 and before lumped both DSLRs & mirrorless together.

Likewise his title of the article " mirrorless shipments down year to year" is misleading there is no full year comparisons in the article!

Nitpicking on your part

Furthermore he suggests that the EM5, GX1 and X PRo 1have been poor sellers, when in all likelihood its been the Nikon1, EOS M and Pentax Q that have been the poor sellers.

EOS M is currently the best selling mirrorless camera in Japan (it must be the Canon name).

GX1 is a great camera but when you see it is currently selling for $275 at B&H it is hard to argue that it has been more successful than the other cameras you claimed were sales failures.

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect.

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

Ask Thom--he has always answered my emails.  Perhaps it is because DSLR sales weren't down nearly as much as mirrorless.

At the end of the day micro four thirds has the momentum and growing market share and is stealing sales that should of been canikon DSLR and they are doing the same in the video.

Wish you were right, but momentum stopped a year ago.

Eyes wide shut?

fyi: EM5 has been produced in batches of 8000 each six weeks.

Great camera that I love. However, I'm not convinced that Oly is making a profit on any of their other models.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 30, 2013

http://www.canonrumors.com/2013/04/the-future-of-eos-m-cr1/ Canon EOS M not the success it had been hoped

Micro four thirds does have the monentum judging by activity here, on flickr, the large amount of community mft sites and forums (both photo and video), 43rumors etc

Unlike the activity of Sony Nex which has slowed in the last 9 months, Nikon 1's poorly marketed and received J2, J3,S1 and V2,Pentax Q never took off outside Europe, Ricoh is discontinuing their GXR and Samsung NX isn't setting the world alight.

Olympus have stated before that their PEN lines are profitable and I'm pretty sure their lenses are too...

BTW Hogan has been reading this thread.

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TrapperJohn
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A surprising lack of detail and context
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 30, 2013

Q1 2012, the only body M43 had that qualified as a high end body was the GH2... maybe... as it's main purpose was video. At that time, the hot selling bodies were the G3 and EPL2.

Since then, we've had the EM5 which has really transformed the M43 scene, and the GH3. Plus quite a few high end lenses: 75 1.8, 12-35, 35-100, 17 1.8... a bit more expensive than kit grade zooms.

So instead of raw figures, perhaps we can see revenue? My guess is, it won't reflect nearly as much of a dip, if any at all, due to the fact that, while fewer units were shipped, they were, on the average, more high end bodies and lenses, because there are a lot more of both now than there were a year ago. Plus, with the debut of the EM5, a lot of advanced amateurs and even pros started buying into the system.

I wonder what Hogan is up to, with these sorts of half done analyses. Either he has very little understanding of statistics, or it's skewed to make mirrorless look bad.

Some people are getting really weird about this mirrorless and M43 thing - look at some of the silly threads on open talk. Maybe he's trying to cash in on the dslr paranoia.

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Ulric
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 30, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect.

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

Ask Thom--he has always answered my emails.  Perhaps it is because DSLR sales weren't down nearly as much as mirrorless.

Here's a graph I posted in a thread on the same topic in Open Talk. It shows quarter-to-quarter change. As you can see, DSLR sales are down more than ML, i.e. falling more rapidly (although from a higher starting point). Neither is doing well.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Eyes wide shut?
In reply to Ulric, Apr 30, 2013

Ulric wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

He also ignores Oly and Panny statements saying that future launches would be in April and September with shipping in May and October ie q2 and q4 with immediate effect.

Why aren't the DSLR figures published on his bythom site?

Ask Thom--he has always answered my emails.  Perhaps it is because DSLR sales weren't down nearly as much as mirrorless.

Here's a graph I posted in a thread on the same topic in Open Talk. It shows quarter-to-quarter change. As you can see, DSLR sales are down more than ML, i.e. falling more rapidly (although from a higher starting point). Neither is doing well.

If you cut off you graphat q4 it looks totally different, which proves that these shipment figures as thre stand cant really be taken  for a trend...we need the next 3 quarters, plus mft has largely raised its average selling price so units shipped tell us less....

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Jorginho
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I have said it umpteen times, people are clueless about significance
In reply to JeanPierre Martel, Apr 30, 2013

It is really funny if you look with what sort of authority some speak abotu these 5 data. N=5! and insist it is meaningfull for trends etc...Some of them are so ignorant, you simply know it is of no use to even argue with them that I think it is better to just leave them in their own fictional belief that they can draw some conclusions based upon tjhis and that theirs is the right one..

There is one conclusion that can be drawn: without any MORE data and background, the numbers only show us what they show. They cannot give us any clue what will happen or not.

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deckfrost
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Re: I have said it umpteen times, people are clueless about significance
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 30, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

It is really funny if you look with what sort of authority some speak abotu these 5 data. N=5! and insist it is meaningfull for trends etc..

and what would you say if N was 450 days ??? N=450 enough, would the trend be different ?

seriously guy LOL

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marike6
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DSPR Paranoia?
In reply to TrapperJohn, Apr 30, 2013

TrapperJohn wrote:

Some people are getting really weird about this mirrorless and M43 thing - look at some of the silly threads on open talk. Maybe he's trying to cash in on the dslr paranoia.

DSLR paranoia?  You mean like this thread on Open Talk?

DSLR Owners Know But Don't Seem to Like The Future

Sounds to me like the OP in this Open Talk thread is the paranoid (and delusional) one.

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mferencz
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 30, 2013

I believe shipments are down for a few reasons.  One, camera sales are down in general,  Two,  The two primary camera companies in the world are just dabbling their toes in mirrorless, which leads to three, they are busy shrinking current camera models size wise to compete with mirrorless all the while protecting their treasure chests of lens options as long as they can.

Some fools like to think mirrorless camera sales being stagnant are a direct result of mirrorless being inferior or pointless and thus enlightened buyers have noted this and therefore not buying them.  Complete nonsense.  Canon and Nikon have the leverage still to show the traditonal DSLR is still the best option, and maybe it is still for now.  Oly and Fugi and Sony are just paving the road for them to parade down after the dust has settled.

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Jorginho
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Re: I have said it umpteen times, people are clueless about significance
In reply to deckfrost, Apr 30, 2013

Selective quoting is not a strenght I believe.

"There is one conclusion that can be drawn: without any MORE data and background, the numbers only show us what they show. They cannot give us any clue what will happen or not."

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tt321
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Re: DSPR Paranoia?
In reply to marike6, Apr 30, 2013

marike6 wrote:

TrapperJohn wrote:

Some people are getting really weird about this mirrorless and M43 thing - look at some of the silly threads on open talk. Maybe he's trying to cash in on the dslr paranoia.

DSLR paranoia?  You mean like this thread on Open Talk?

DSLR Owners Know But Don't Seem to Like The Future

Sounds to me like the OP in this Open Talk thread is the paranoid (and delusional) one.

Your link above seems broken?

Here is the thread:

http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/51371520

Thanks for causing me to look at open talk. SLR vs mirrorless seems a hugely popular battle. Hmm.

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Just Having Fun
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Thom's article did exactly what he wanted
In reply to TrapperJohn, Apr 30, 2013

It got people talking/posting, it brought attention to mirrorless cameras, and it made his site popular.

IMHO, the blog was rather flawed, but with another year's worth of data we will know more.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: I have said it umpteen times, people are clueless about significance
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 30, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

It is really funny if you look with what sort of authority some speak abotu these 5 data. N=5! and insist it is meaningfull for trends etc...Some of them are so ignorant, you simply know it is of no use to even argue with them that I think it is better to just leave them in their own fictional belief that they can draw some conclusions based upon tjhis and that theirs is the right one..

There is one conclusion that can be drawn: without any MORE data and background, the numbers only show us what they show. They cannot give us any clue what will happen or not.

As I recall, it wasn't that long ago many people here were using data for similar time periods to argue that mirrorless is the future and that DSLRs' days were numbered. However, presented with data showing a slide in mirrorless shipments, people seem eager to claim that these data are meaningless.

You seem to be arguing that these data are neither good or bad news. However, I, for one, would be happier if mirrorless shipments were up from last year.  Stock markets rise and fall based on quarterly reports and monthly economic employment and GDP data.  I guess you know more about what is meaningful than the investors, analysts, government policy makers, etc who make decisions based on quarterly and monthly data.

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Grobb
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Or, maybe this is why!
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 30, 2013

Its because people thinking about getting a m4/3 camera and come across a post like this: http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/51378681 That entire thread is all about people trying to figure out which apertures and focal lengths each of their very expensive lenses take sharp images?!?! It seems like you can’t get a good current m4/3 camera, buy 2 good lenses (short/long) and get sharp images from corner to corner. It seems from reading that entire thread that you need at least 4-5 expensive lenses to cover all your needs. Is it possible some people are coming to the conclusion that sure, you can spend $4-600 on a very good m4/3 camera, BUT you need to spend at least another $1-1,500 (or more) on an entire arsenal of specialized lenses? That is the only thing stopping me from purchasing my first m4/3 (E-PL5) right now. Is it not possible to just have a short/long range reasonably prices lenses and get reasonably sharp images from corner to corner across the focal range? If no, this makes purchasing a m4/3 camera system a very costly and complicated process. Especially from people coming from fixed lens camera's that do not have to contend with those kind of issues or expenses and possibly frustrations.

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Eamon Hickey
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revenues down the same as units (but about 19%, not 43%)
In reply to TrapperJohn, May 2, 2013

TrapperJohn wrote:

So instead of raw figures, perhaps we can see revenue? My guess is, it won't reflect nearly as much of a dip, if any at all, due to the fact that, while fewer units were shipped, they were, on the average, more high end bodies and lenses, because there are a lot more of both now than there were a year ago.

CIPA also provides revenue numbers. Revenues for mirrorless ILC cameras shipped in Q1 2013 were 82% of revenues for the same period in 2012, so about 18% lower.

It turns out that's about the same as the drop in units shipped. I noticed that the units shipped figure Mr. Hogan was using for Q1 2012 wasn't correct -- he has since updated his original article to reflect that.

Using the correct figures, mirrorless ILC units shipped in Q1 2013 were about 81.5% of units shipped for the same period in 2012. So about 19% lower.

That's a more modest decline, and slightly less than the decline for DSLRs (although the difference isn't significant, in my view). With the corrected figures, it strengthens my feeling that the cause is probably mostly slack economic conditions in much of the world, rather than anything specific about the mirrorless camera business.

Still, I'm surprised at the relatively significant decline in mirrorless ILC sales.

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Eamon Hickey
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addendum, now that numbers are corrected
In reply to Eamon Hickey, May 2, 2013

I noticed that the figure Mr. Hogan was originally using for mirrorless ILC units shipped in Q1 2012 wasn't correct. The actual figure was lower: 740,846

Mr. Hogan has since updated his article with the correct figure.

Using the correct figures, shipments in Q1 2013 were about 81.5% of shipments in the same period in 2012. That's a more modest decline, and roughly the same as the decline in DSLR unit sales over the same periods. It tends to strengthen my feeling that the cause is probably mostly due to slack economic conditions in much of the world. But that's just an impression -- wouldn't bet too much on it.

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