MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions
safaridon
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Re: Means little
In reply to cfh25, Apr 27, 2013

cfh25 wrote:

See the first paragraph of the article on his Nikon site:

"Apple today launched a new TV campaign. A one minute ad of people using iPhones as cameras with only one line at the end: "Every day, more photos are taken with the iPhone than any other camera."

The erosion of all areas of the traditional camera market - DSLRs, mirrorless, and compacts - is easily explained. Why carry a phone, a camera, a computer, a gps, a TV, when you can get them in one unit. Whilst there'll remain a market for the enthusiast, the casual family photographer has gone elsewhere.

Very good logical explanation.  Also one can share the pictures or video with others a continent away almost instantly not to mention the savings  of not having to buy all these  other mentioned items!   Given the vastly improved IQ of pictures made with iphones etc  I would bet at normally  small viewed or printed sizes that the majority on this forum might not even be able to identify which picture was taken by the iphone or compact, mirrorless, or DSLR under average conditions?

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: five quarters is an eternity
In reply to Eamon Hickey, Apr 27, 2013

Mirrorless isn't a business that should be growing, mirrorless is made up of a number of businesses and some may be growing, some might be static and some might of bombed, these figures font break that down so are near worthless.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Means little
In reply to safaridon, Apr 27, 2013

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

Strange how Hogan doesn't mention Nikon 1, Pentax Q or EOS M but does mention Oly,Panny and Sony in the article so inferring that it is their sales are down. when in actual fact the  selective figures are for all mirrorless players.

Also traditionally over the last 3 years mirrorless has shown a dip in shipping in Dec-Jan with shipping picking up again in February onwards....which is actually shown in Hogan's graph.

Again in 2013 Oly and Panny are doing most of their announcements and shipments in q2 April-June

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MichaelKJ
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Re: Means little
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 27, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Mirrorless took some market share from DSLRs, but that appears to have stopped about one year ago.

What do you think DSLRs should have done to maintain market share?

I think most people would find Thom's interpretation more credible than yours. I've seen my sons and many friends go from being frequent users of their DSLRs to only using them on special occasions. Their iPhones have completely replaced their compact cameras and about 90% of the photos they used to take with their DSLRs.

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micronean
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Re: Means little
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Mirrorless took some market share from DSLRs, but that appears to have stopped about one year ago.

What do you think DSLRs should have done to maintain market share?

I think most people would find Thom's interpretation more credible than yours. I've seen my sons and many friends go from being frequent users of their DSLRs to only using them on special occasions. Their iPhones have completely replaced their compact cameras and about 90% of the photos they used to take with their DSLRs.

What advantage does a smartphone have over a DSLR? It's definitely not IQ, nor sensor size (and all the advantages a large sensor brings). It's all about size, convenience, and the ability to share a photo immediately. DSLRs cannot--and will not--compete in this realm.

There was probably a time when the only way to take a nice quality photo was to use a DSLR, and so its size, expense, and sophistication, was more of a compromise to the average consumer (In fact, I remember the early point-and-shoot, "5MP", cameras had a terrible delay resulting in blur, and the colors were a tad off, and it was nearly impossible to take a good picture once the sun began to set). Quality has now caught up sufficiently in smaller cameras and we now see what features were not really wanted by consumers.

DSLRs just cannot meet this demand. They were not designed for it. It's perfectly natural that its sales drop. It ISN'T natural that manufacturers keep pushing cheap DSLR models, or giving them huge rebates, to push sales towards a design that will never meet the casual consumers' prime demands. That's ridiculous!

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Means little
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 28, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Mirrorless took some market share from DSLRs, but that appears to have stopped about one year ago.

What do you think DSLRs should have done to maintain market share?

I think most people would find Thom's interpretation more credible than yours. I've seen my sons and many friends go from being frequent users of their DSLRs to only using them on special occasions. Their iPhones have completely replaced their compact cameras and about 90% of the photos they used to take with their DSLRs.

Mirrorless hasn't stopped taking market share and potential market share from DSLRs. This is evident when you look at mirrorless users on flickr  you can see all the previous cameras they use to shoot with via the exif data. Just like its evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters.

Canikon still make DSLRs difficult to use,still tie their users to OVFs, still over segment the market etc in fact they have dug their own grave.

Yes smartphones have  very obviously totally eaten into the point and shot market and will continue to do so.No smartphones are no to blame for DSLR's decline they have done that themselves. At worse smartphones have affected the camera joshi which Olympus had already successfully targeted and is now repositioning itself away from.

Your son's friends haven't discovered mft and just prove my point about how frustrating and difficult DSLRs are for most of their users... Canikon have sold them a false dream.

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YouDidntDidYou
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someone else's loss actually...
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 28, 2013

Olympus mirrorless sales rose by 12% for the year and by 28% in q4 so those figures are someone else's loss....

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meland
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Re: Means little
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 28, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Mirrorless took some market share from DSLRs, but that appears to have stopped about one year ago.

What do you think DSLRs should have done to maintain market share?

I think most people would find Thom's interpretation more credible than yours. I've seen my sons and many friends go from being frequent users of their DSLRs to only using them on special occasions. Their iPhones have completely replaced their compact cameras and about 90% of the photos they used to take with their DSLRs.

Mirrorless hasn't stopped taking market share and potential market share from DSLRs. This is evident when you look at mirrorless users on flickr  you can see all the previous cameras they use to shoot with via the exif data. Just like its evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters.

Not that I'm an advocate for DSLRs, mirrorless or any particular format come to that but I'm not sure flickr is really a very good indication of world wide market share.  Or that you can draw the conclusion that "its (sic) evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters."

Canikon still make DSLRs difficult to use,still tie their users to OVFs, still over segment the market etc in fact they have dug their own grave.

Difficult to use?  Tie their users to OVF (which many would see as a distinct advantage although it obviously creates size issues)?  Over segment the market - and you don't think that will happen to mirrorless too?  And as for having dug their own grave - well they may have picked out a possible plot but I don't think they have started digging yet.

Yes smartphones have  very obviously totally eaten into the point and shot market and will continue to do so.No smartphones are no to blame for DSLR's decline they have done that themselves. At worse smartphones have affected the camera joshi which Olympus had already successfully targeted and is now repositioning itself away from.

I've nothing against Olympus having used OM1 / OM2 SLRs for many years and loved them.  But unfortunately Olympus lost the plot (and virtually all their market share) when most other SLR manufacturers successfully moved to autofocus.  So no longer being unable to compete in the SLR market it was either do something different (4/3 and M4/3) or get out of the interchangeable lens camera business altogether.

Your son's friends haven't discovered mft and just prove my point about how frustrating and difficult DSLRs are for most of their users... Canikon have sold them a false dream.

Sold them a false dream?  Not at all.  Many 'casual' users bought into SLRs and more latterly DSLRs because they wanted something better than could be obtained from the point and shoot cameras of the time. Many are no more difficult to use than point and shoots - in fact most are used that way and exposure, focus, etc., are all taken care of automatically.  You could argue that DSLRs are too large for many people and I wouldn't disagree at all.  With the 100D Canon are attempting to address that but of course many other formats are potentially even smaller.

Horses for courses really and fortunately we're spoilt for choice.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: someone else's loss actually...
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 28, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Olympus mirrorless sales rose by 12% for the year and by 28% in q4 so those figures are someone else's loss....

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Source?

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JeanPierre Martel
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 28, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

How can we draw a conclusion so large, based on so small data?

So there is a drop during the first quarter of 2013, compared to the same quarter during 2012. So what? Is the Western economy crumbling because the Dow Jones index fell last week? Come on guys, lets be serious.

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Jorginho
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n=5 and some perspective over 10 years
In reply to Eamon Hickey, Apr 28, 2013

If we had 15months, n would be 15. Still...we have only one motnh of:

arpil, may, june, july, august, september in it.

In quarters n=5. Good luck with statistical signifcance. And without that AND any background on why it the numbers are down in Q1 2013, we can say nothing to the relevance of it.

Some people here seem eager to do so or they tell me that others take these numbers serious. I am not saying you should not take them serious. You should if it is your interest or your livelihood depends on it. And you should come up with answers to questions, not assumptions.

So I'll await that and will not opionate on something I have little knowledge about other than 5 figures.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: someone else's loss actually...
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 28, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Olympus mirrorless sales rose by 12% for the year and by 28% in q4 so those figures are someone else's loss....

living life to the Four Thirds!
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Source?

...the source is your very own Thom Hogan in his article in Feb 2013 entitled "The Final Three Results"
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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: Means little
In reply to meland, Apr 28, 2013

meland wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Mirrorless took some market share from DSLRs, but that appears to have stopped about one year ago.

What do you think DSLRs should have done to maintain market share?

I think most people would find Thom's interpretation more credible than yours. I've seen my sons and many friends go from being frequent users of their DSLRs to only using them on special occasions. Their iPhones have completely replaced their compact cameras and about 90% of the photos they used to take with their DSLRs.

Mirrorless hasn't stopped taking market share and potential market share from DSLRs. This is evident when you look at mirrorless users on flickr  you can see all the previous cameras they use to shoot with via the exif data. Just like its evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters.

Flickr is the end user/consumer and is more representative than dpreview posters.
From flickr users you can work out gender,age group, country, how often they use their camera, how they use their camera, editing programs, what they like to photograph, what lenses they use etc

Not that I'm an advocate for DSLRs, mirrorless or any particular format come to that but I'm not sure flickr is really a very good indication of world wide market share.  Or that you can draw the conclusion that "its (sic) evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters."

Canikon still make DSLRs difficult to use,still tie their users to OVFs, still over segment the market etc in fact they have dug their own grave.

Smartphones have LCD screens not OVFs and give live real previews close to the final result. Individual mft cameras are targeted at more flexible consumers and have been taken up by such.
Yep they been digging the last 3 years the EOS M and Nikon 1 are fails.

Difficult to use?  Tie their users to OVF (which many would see as a distinct advantage although it obviously creates size issues)?  Over segment the market - and you don't think that will happen to mirrorless too?  And as for having dug their own grave - well they may have picked out a possible plot but I don't think they have started digging yet.

Yes smartphones have  very obviously totally eaten into the point and shot market and will continue to do so.No smartphones are no to blame for DSLR's decline they have done that themselves. At worse smartphones have affected the camera joshi which Olympus had already successfully targeted and is now repositioning itself away from.

Not being able to compete in the DSLR market has actually been a godsend for Panny and Oly.

I've nothing against Olympus having used OM1 / OM2 SLRs for many years and loved them.  But unfortunately Olympus lost the plot (and virtually all their market share) when most other SLR manufacturers successfully moved to autofocus.  So no longer being unable to compete in the SLR market it was either do something different (4/3 and M4/3) or get out of the interchangeable lens camera business altogether.

Your son's friends haven't discovered mft and just prove my point about how frustrating and difficult DSLRs are for most of their users... Canikon have sold them a false dream.

Time and time again I meet ordinary consumers who spent £500-1200 of their hard earned money on DSLR cameras from which they find it difficult to get the images out of their cameras, that to me is a fail.

Sold them a false dream?  Not at all.  Many 'casual' users bought into SLRs and more latterly DSLRs because they wanted something better than could be obtained from the point and shoot cameras of the time. Many are no more difficult to use than point and shoots - in fact most are used that way and exposure, focus, etc., are all taken care of automatically.  You could argue that DSLRs are too large for many people and I wouldn't disagree at all.  With the 100D Canon are attempting to address that but of course many other formats are potentially even smaller.

Horses for courses really and fortunately we're spoilt for choice.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

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meland
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Re: Means little
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 28, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

meland wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

DSLRs market share is eroding because they have failed to evolve with the consumer over the last 5 years.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Mirrorless took some market share from DSLRs, but that appears to have stopped about one year ago.

What do you think DSLRs should have done to maintain market share?

I think most people would find Thom's interpretation more credible than yours. I've seen my sons and many friends go from being frequent users of their DSLRs to only using them on special occasions. Their iPhones have completely replaced their compact cameras and about 90% of the photos they used to take with their DSLRs.

Mirrorless hasn't stopped taking market share and potential market share from DSLRs. This is evident when you look at mirrorless users on flickr  you can see all the previous cameras they use to shoot with via the exif data. Just like its evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters.

Flickr is the end user/consumer and is more representative than dpreview posters.
From flickr users you can work out gender,age group, country, how often they use their camera, how they use their camera, editing programs, what they like to photograph, what lenses they use etc

Thank you for your explanation of Flickr.  I do know what it is but for all its attributes it is not an indicator of market share.

Not that I'm an advocate for DSLRs, mirrorless or any particular format come to that but I'm not sure flickr is really a very good indication of world wide market share.  Or that you can draw the conclusion that "its (sic) evident that mft users use exposure compensation, white balance settings, metering modes etc more often than DSLR shooters."

Canikon still make DSLRs difficult to use,still tie their users to OVFs, still over segment the market etc in fact they have dug their own grave.

Smartphones have LCD screens not OVFs and give live real previews close to the final result. Individual mft cameras are targeted at more flexible consumers and have been taken up by such.

So?  OVFs give a more realistic image that for many people are easier to compose on and follow fast moving subjects.  And they use less power.

Yep they been digging the last 3 years the EOS M and Nikon 1 are fails.

Disagree.  Nikon and Canon may have not got there act together in this sector yet but they will.

Difficult to use?  Tie their users to OVF (which many would see as a distinct advantage although it obviously creates size issues)?  Over segment the market - and you don't think that will happen to mirrorless too?  And as for having dug their own grave - well they may have picked out a possible plot but I don't think they have started digging yet.

Yes smartphones have  very obviously totally eaten into the point and shot market and will continue to do so.No smartphones are no to blame for DSLR's decline they have done that themselves. At worse smartphones have affected the camera joshi which Olympus had already successfully targeted and is now repositioning itself away from.

Not being able to compete in the DSLR market has actually been a godsend for Panny and Oly.

You are correct on that one.

I've nothing against Olympus having used OM1 / OM2 SLRs for many years and loved them.  But unfortunately Olympus lost the plot (and virtually all their market share) when most other SLR manufacturers successfully moved to autofocus.  So no longer being unable to compete in the SLR market it was either do something different (4/3 and M4/3) or get out of the interchangeable lens camera business altogether.

Your son's friends haven't discovered mft and just prove my point about how frustrating and difficult DSLRs are for most of their users... Canikon have sold them a false dream.

Time and time again I meet ordinary consumers who spent £500-1200 of their hard earned money on DSLR cameras from which they find it difficult to get the images out of their cameras, that to me is a fail.

It's probably dangerous to judge everyone by the standards of people you have met.

Sold them a false dream?  Not at all.  Many 'casual' users bought into SLRs and more latterly DSLRs because they wanted something better than could be obtained from the point and shoot cameras of the time. Many are no more difficult to use than point and shoots - in fact most are used that way and exposure, focus, etc., are all taken care of automatically.  You could argue that DSLRs are too large for many people and I wouldn't disagree at all.  With the 100D Canon are attempting to address that but of course many other formats are potentially even smaller.

Horses for courses really and fortunately we're spoilt for choice.

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

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YouDidntDidYou
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mft like a DSLR only better
In reply to meland, Apr 28, 2013

1. Flickr is useful, also the most popular image taker on flickr is the iphone and flickr's camera stats do quite accurately reflect a camera's popularity ie its sales and usage.
2. Most people view their images on screens ie mobile, computers and LCDs and with the most recent mft cameras it's far easier to follow fast moving subjects as the refresh rate is faster than the human eye ie about 24 frames per second. Power is everywhere nowadays people borrow/use other people's mobile phone chargers all the time ie this week other people have used my charger on their kindle, dongle and their phones.Adding micro usb charging to mft cameras is the next logicalstep plus third party batteries are cheap and plentiful. One other point with a mft camera you will take less wasted shots, more keepers and have smaller file sizes so less battery usage and faster processing.
3. Canikon where suppose to wipe the mft floor with their EOS M and Nikon 1 offerings... it didn't happen and won't be happening
4. Why dangerous?

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meland
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Re: mft like a DSLR only better
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 28, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

1. Flickr is useful, also the most popular image taker on flickr is the iphone and flickr's camera stats do quite accurately reflect a camera's popularity ie its sales and usage.

No they don't - all they show is the number of people posting images on Flickr with certain cameras.

But for my part I'm not continuing any further with any of this 'discussion'.

2. Most people view their images on screens ie mobile, computers and LCDs and with the most recent mft cameras it's far easier to follow fast moving subjects as the refresh rate is faster than the human eye ie about 24 frames per second. Power is everywhere nowadays people borrow/use other people's mobile phone chargers all the time ie this week other people have used my charger on their kindle, dongle and their phones.Adding micro usb charging to mft cameras is the next logicalstep plus third party batteries are cheap and plentiful. One other point with a mft camera you will take less wasted shots, more keepers and have smaller file sizes so less battery usage and faster processing.
3. Canikon where suppose to wipe the mft floor with their EOS M and Nikon 1 offerings... it didn't happen and won't be happening
4. Why dangerous?

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MichaelKJ
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Re: someone else's loss actually...
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 28, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Olympus mirrorless sales rose by 12% for the year and by 28% in q4 so those figures are someone else's loss....

living life to the Four Thirds!
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Source?

...the source is your very own Thom Hogan in his article in Feb 2013 entitled "The Final Three Results"
living life to the Four Thirds!
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Hogan's article The Final Three Results said nothing about results for the first quarter of 2013, which was the whole point of his most recent article and my thread.  The article you cited noted that Oly's MFT 2012 sales rose 12% over 2011 sales.  Thus, it says nothing about Oly's shipments for the first quarter of 2013 versus their shipments for the first quarter of 2012.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: someone else's loss actually...
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 28, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Olympus mirrorless sales rose by 12% for the year and by 28% in q4 so those figures are someone else's loss....

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Source?

...the source is your very own Thom Hogan in his article in Feb 2013 entitled "The Final Three Results"
living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Hogan's article The Final Three Results said nothing about results for the first quarter of 2013, which was the whole point of his most recent article and my thread.  The article you cited noted that Oly's MFT 2012 sales rose 12% over 2011 sales.  Thus, it says nothing about Oly's shipments for the first quarter of 2013 versus their shipments for the first quarter of 2012.

His most recent article is about the last 5 quarters (4 of the quarters are mentioned in that article) and the point of this thread (you quoted all 5 quarters). 
And as you basically admitted in this thread the figures in his most recent article say niche about mft sales.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: someone else's loss actually...
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 28, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Olympus mirrorless sales rose by 12% for the year and by 28% in q4 so those figures are someone else's loss....

living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Source?

...the source is your very own Thom Hogan in his article in Feb 2013 entitled "The Final Three Results"
living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

Hogan's article The Final Three Results said nothing about results for the first quarter of 2013, which was the whole point of his most recent article and my thread.  The article you cited noted that Oly's MFT 2012 sales rose 12% over 2011 sales.  Thus, it says nothing about Oly's shipments for the first quarter of 2013 versus their shipments for the first quarter of 2012.

His most recent article is about the last 5 quarters (4 of the quarters are mentioned in that article) and the point of this thread (you quoted all 5 quarters).

You really need to read more carefully. Hogan presented data for the past 5 quarters in his most recent article, but his statement: To put a number on it, 2013 mirrorless shipments were only 57.8% of those a year ago was a comparison of first quarter 2012 sales to first quarter 2013 sales.  That was the main point of his article. What did you think it was? Did you think he was claiming that mirrorless shipments for the past 5 quarters were down verus 2011 shipments? If so, you were mistaken.

I noticed that you appear to have dropped your claim that Olympus couldn't have been one of the companies that had decreased shipments in first quarter of 2013. The article you relied on in making this claim was written before the first quarter was over, so it obviously provides no support for your previous claim.

And as you basically admitted in this thread the figures in his most recent article say niche about mft sales.

It is theoretically possible that Olympus was not one of the mirrorless companies with decreased shipments in the first quarter, I think most would view that conclusion as highly unlikely. However, given the large 57.8% drop in mirrorless shipments and the fact that Olympus made more mirrorless cameras than any other company in 2012, it seems very unlikely that they weren't one of the companies that shipped fewer cameras.

still living life to the Four Thirds!
http://www.YouDidntDidYou.com

 MichaelKJ's gear list:MichaelKJ's gear list
Fujifilm FinePix F31fd Olympus PEN E-PL1 Olympus OM-D E-M5 +1 more
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