MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions
amalric
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Re: MFT shipments down...NOT
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 27, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

Olympus successfully targeted and saturated the camera joshi market in Japan with their mirrorless. Now Fuji, Panny and Oly and Sony somewhat are targeting the semi pro and enthusiasts segment.

Making a dull and obvious "prediction" that smartphones would affect the camera was hardly rocket science, stated elsewhere many times previously by others and would of been planned for the leading mirrorless players.

The main factor affecting mirrorless sales is the poor state of the economy in many parts of the world more people are holding back from upgrading eg look at D4 sales...lacklustre also in these times people are less likely to try something new and more inclined to stay with what they know ie DSLRs.

I never seen any figures showing mft is in the red,Oly and Panny have publicly stated that their mirrorless offerings are the profitable parts of their imaging divisions. Maybe some other camera company's mirrorless system is in the red when they failed to live up to their own internal sales targets, haven't even done a million units and what they did sell was largely sold at 60% discount *cough cough*

Mft needs to be more aggressive in targeting Russia, Brazil,India and their nearby countries, I believe mft is already doing reasonably well in China.North America is a slow burn.

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I agree with the above. The danger I see is that regardless of the models, if P & O camera divisions stay in the red the banks or boards will end up closing them.

There's also another factor at play: people don't learn photography anymore unless they have pro ambitions, the general knowledge is getting so lost that even pros in the US had to spend half of their money, not on equipment, but on photography courses, according to the.me.

IOW taking pictures, has just become an app of portable conputing. I suspect that the cameras that are still bought are just status symbols, so you see ultra expensive models with a fixed lens. Even selling more than one lens becomes difficult, as Mr. Terada remarked - and that was the 45mm, a portrait lens for the family.

One has only to look at the forums to see how photographic culture is getting lost. Instead of trying to improve their skills people only try to find another magic wand in gear. When they won't see any improvement, they'll just look for another hobby. So even  the policy of introducing some additional feature every six months, and a facelift, is going to fizzle out in the long run.

That at least is true for the oldest markets, hoping that Asia and its billions will come to the rescue at some point.

Am.

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igorek7
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since you like statistics, below is some other numbers from the Tom's posts.

  • Japan is <10% of the camera market overall. The CIPA & BCN numbers represent only about half of the retail outlets for cameras in Japan. Top sales in Japan are of previous generation products.

"While mirrorless shipments were 57.8% of last year's quarter, DSLRs were 76.8% of last year's quarter. Here are the full set of DSLR numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 3,386,386 units  (3.2 to 1)
  • Q2 2012: 4,265,825 units  (4.8 to 1)
  • Q3 2012: 4,557,378 units  (5.2 to 1)
  • Q4 2012: 3,990,862 units  (2.7 to 1)
  • Q1 2013: 2,600,765 units  (4.3 to 1)

Those numbers in parens are the DSLR-to-mirrorless sales ratio."

One thing is clear, it's a tough time for the digital camera market.

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Jorginho
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Re: MFT shipments down...NOT
In reply to amalric, Apr 27, 2013

There's also another factor at play: people don't learn photography anymore unless they have pro ambitions, the general knowledge is getting so lost that even pros in the US had to spend half of their money, not on equipment, but on photography courses, according to the.me.IOW taking pictures, has just become an app of portable conputing. I suspect that the cameras that are still bought are just status symbols, so you see ultra expensive models with a fixed lens. Even selling more than one lens becomes difficult, as Mr. Terada remarked - and that was the 45mm, a portrait lens for the family.

One has only to look at the forums to see how photographic culture is getting lost.

Every culture will have a rsie and a fall and get extinct. I do not see it as a loss, but as a change to something different. Something new. You can chose to be a part of it or not.

Instead of trying to improve their skills people only try to find another magic wand in gear. When they won't see any improvement, they'll just look for another hobby. So even  the policy of introducing some additional feature every six months, and a facelift, is going to fizzle out in the long run.

Might be correct nbut than that is the way it is. I do think that of all camera's the most serious ones will be least affected as these have always been bought by those who do care about these things.

That at least is true for the oldest markets, hoping that Asia and its billions will come to the rescue at some point.

Personally I think it is wiser not to resent things or judging them (people, devlopments). I go with the flow and make my personal choices based on what is available and what I liek. if something isn't there (anymore) then I go for what comes close.

Also I can imagine some people are still sad for the demise of film and will have a similar stance on DSLRs as compared to SLRs. It is not taking them anywhere I think rather then feeling a loss, sad etc.

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meland
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Domagoj Batinic, Apr 27, 2013

Domagoj Batinic wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

with olympus about to introduce new Pen and later in the year new OM-D ,maybe it's the case of people waiting to see what improvements will be in those camera, rather then buying existing cameras

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I fear you overestimate the impact Olympus has in terms of its market share and indeed of awareness.

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Jorginho
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to meland, Apr 27, 2013

My thought too. The OMd has little influence here.

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meland
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to igorek7, Apr 27, 2013

igorek7 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since you like statistics, below is some other numbers from the Tom's posts.

  • Japan is <10% of the camera market overall. The CIPA & BCN numbers represent only about half of the retail outlets for cameras in Japan. Top sales in Japan are of previous generation products.

Sorry - these CIPA figures are for Production and for Total Shipments Worldwide.  Of course they also have figures for the Japanese domestic market but that is not what is being quoted here.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down...NOT
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 27, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

Which company are you talking about (60% discount etc)? You got me curious.

It wasn't Olympus, Panasonic, Sony, Pentax, Samsung or Canon that means it must be....

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Franka T.L.
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shouldn't surprise
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

It was, simply a reflection of how much the market evolve and diversify. So instead of M4/3 being the only viable , there are now so many and all of them are good at something. The M4/3 no different. And of course all of them had their own short ends too.

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deckfrost
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Re: Again, this says little too
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 27, 2013

Assumptions. These numbers tell us nothing.

Assumptions, yes but logical.by the way I would love a OMD or X-E1 where I could just slot in the Iphone (instead of having a integrated liveview screen), much 100 times more powerful, more battery, more versatile, awesome ( i suppose apple's restrictions to hardware access would not permit it but with a S4 ...)


Also: if more people shoot it is possible more talented photographers will emerge, raising the standard of photography. But that is an assumption too...

So far I m horrified when I check the pics posted on dpreview forums, 99% are just awful, no composition, no background attention, just awful, some even make to make macro looks bad quite a feat ( I dont like macro but it s hard to make a pic looks bad on macro).

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Michael Yung
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since the figures are for all "mirrorless cameras", so why the subject line is "MFT shipments down" ?

May be, just may be, MFT actually performed well in that 5 quarters.

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meland
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Michael Yung, Apr 27, 2013

Michael Yung wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since the figures are for all "mirrorless cameras", so why the subject line is "MFT shipments down" ?

May be, just may be, MFT actually performed well in that 5 quarters.

You are right.  But I guess if the subject had been "Mirrorless Shipments down" perhaps it would not have prompted the same interest (defence?) in the Micro Four Thirds Talk forum?

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Jorginho
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Re: Again, this says little too
In reply to deckfrost, Apr 27, 2013

deckfrost wrote:

Assumptions. These numbers tell us nothing.

Assumptions, yes but logical.by the way I would love a OMD or X-E1 where I could just slot in the Iphone (instead of having a integrated liveview screen), much 100 times more powerful, more battery, more versatile, awesome ( i suppose apple's restrictions to hardware access would not permit it but with a S4 ...)


Also: if more people shoot it is possible more talented photographers will emerge, raising the standard of photography. But that is an assumption too...

So far I m horrified when I check the pics posted on dpreview forums, 99% are just awful, no composition, no background attention, just awful, some even make to make macro looks bad quite a feat ( I dont like macro but it s hard to make a pic looks bad on macro).

Most people do this for fun, not with the thought or conviction they are excellent. And some simply like the pics they shoot where other, more experienced shooters can easily find faults. I think it is very easy to mak e macro lookbad, certainly with a 1:1 lens. You easily can get out of focus.

Also: some post here when they are just beginning and if you wait long enough you see a learning curve.

All in all I see little reason for any strong emotions by what others do. Just think they had a lot of fun, probably did their best aand certainly had no bad intentions (to hurt you ;-)). So i do not comprehend you strong response here, to be honest. Just do your own best as much as you can and leave the rest up to others, at least that is my take on those things. at least we can see their pics but I did not find any of yours actually?

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alpha90290
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It show that the world economy is not so good (NT)
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

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Franglais91
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Differences in curves between mirrorless and DSLR is intriguing
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

The buying curves are quite different between DSLR's and Mirrorless:

- DSLR's reach a peak in the summer

- Mirrorless peak around Christmas and in Spring

My guess is that the vast majority of DSLR's are being bought by consumers who need a "decent" camera to go on holiday. New releases have little impact - Nikon D5100 owners are not eagerly awaiting the release of the D5200.

And I think that Mirrorless is mostly being bought by enthusiasts who are very interested in new models. Each new generation brings significant improvements.

I don't really follow Mirrorless very closely but it seems to me that there haven't been very many new Mirrorless models released recently so that may have slowed sales.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Michael Yung, Apr 27, 2013

Michael Yung wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since the figures are for all "mirrorless cameras", so why the subject line is "MFT shipments down"

It was my mistake and I apologize.  I didn't stop to think and the subject line reflects my concern about MFT (I could care less if sales of other mirrorless cameras are down).

?

May be, just may be, MFT actually performed well in that 5 quarters.

When you take into account the fact that MFT is the largest segment of the mirrorless market, I think this is highly unlikely.

Imo, people are using my mistake to try to wish away what is most likely negative news for MFT.

Quarterly reports should be released by most, if not all, camera makers in May.  That information should be more informative, although company explanations of results have to be taken with a grain of salt.

-
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Michael
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meland
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Michael Yung wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since the figures are for all "mirrorless cameras", so why the subject line is "MFT shipments down"

It was my mistake and I apologize.  I didn't stop to think and the subject line reflects my concern about MFT (I could care less if sales of other mirrorless cameras are down).

So you do care?

?

May be, just may be, MFT actually performed well in that 5 quarters.

When you take into account the fact that MFT is the largest segment of the mirrorless market, I think this is highly unlikely.

Imo, people are using my mistake to try to wish away what is most likely negative news for MFT.

Quarterly reports should be released by most, if not all, camera makers in May.  That information should be more informative, although company explanations of results have to be taken with a grain of salt.

-
Cheers,
Michael
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MichaelKJ
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to meland, Apr 27, 2013

meland wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Michael Yung wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since the figures are for all "mirrorless cameras", so why the subject line is "MFT shipments down"

It was my mistake and I apologize.  I didn't stop to think and the subject line reflects my concern about MFT (I could care less if sales of other mirrorless cameras are down).

So you do care?

Yes I do care about the future of MFT. I'm also have a long time fondness for Olympus. In addition to my OM-D, GH-2 and E-PL1, I still have the OM-1 that I bought in 1975.

However, unlike some here, I try to look at things as objectively as possible. Yes, it is possible that MFT is doing better than these data suggest. However, many of those who have commented in this thread seem completely unwilling to accept the possibility that aren't good news for MFT.

?

May be, just may be, MFT actually performed well in that 5 quarters.

When you take into account the fact that MFT is the largest segment of the mirrorless market, I think this is highly unlikely.

Imo, people are using my mistake to try to wish away what is most likely negative news for MFT.

Quarterly reports should be released by most, if not all, camera makers in May.  That information should be more informative, although company explanations of results have to be taken with a grain of salt.

-
Cheers,
Michael
http://www.michaelyung.com/blog/album/

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meland
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

meland wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Michael Yung wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Since the figures are for all "mirrorless cameras", so why the subject line is "MFT shipments down"

It was my mistake and I apologize.  I didn't stop to think and the subject line reflects my concern about MFT (I could care less if sales of other mirrorless cameras are down).

So you do care?

Yes I do care about the future of MFT. I'm also have a long time fondness for Olympus. In addition to my OM-D, GH-2 and E-PL1, I still have the OM-1 that I bought in 1975.

Sorry, my comment was tongue in cheek.  If you can be bothered to click on the link below this explains better than I could.  But if that's how you guys want to use the phrase, then I couldn't care less.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpw

However, unlike some here, I try to look at things as objectively as possible. Yes, it is possible that MFT is doing better than these data suggest. However, many of those who have commented in this thread seem completely unwilling to accept the possibility that aren't good news for MFT.

?

May be, just may be, MFT actually performed well in that 5 quarters.

When you take into account the fact that MFT is the largest segment of the mirrorless market, I think this is highly unlikely.

Imo, people are using my mistake to try to wish away what is most likely negative news for MFT.

Quarterly reports should be released by most, if not all, camera makers in May.  That information should be more informative, although company explanations of results have to be taken with a grain of salt.

-
Cheers,
Michael
http://www.michaelyung.com/blog/album/

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Eamon Hickey
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five quarters is an eternity
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 27, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

- 5 quarters is not meaningfull. You cannot see a trend based on 5 rather fluctuating quarters

Five quarters is 15 months. Sorry, but that's an eternity in business. Companies regularly go from profitable to bankrupt in less time than that. Entire workforces regularly get laid off and re-hired based on sales trends over shorter periods than that. Presidents and prime ministers get re-elected, or not, based on economic performance over shorter periods than that.

Now, in this particular case, the quarters do show some confusing fluctuations -- there's ups and downs, not just downs, so I agree that they don't show necessarily a clear trend.

That said, the key figure that Mr. Hogan is highlighting is the year-over-year figure. Mirrorless shipments are down more than 40% compared to the same period last year. That's a pretty important number in a business that should be growing faster than any other segment of the camera business. It's telling, and MichaelKJ is also quite right to think so. It definitely surprises me.

Mr. Hogan noted a few weeks ago that January 2013 showed lower shipments than January 2012, and I wasn't ready to give too much significance to one month year-over-year results. But a quarter is much more telling, especially since the quarter in question includes March, which is the fiscal year-end for most Japanese companies and traditionally a month when they try to ship as much product as possible to maximize their annual results.

All that said, I'm guessing this dip -- and there's no question that it's a surprising dip -- is more a reflection of global economic conditions than anything specific about the mirrorless camera business.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments NOT down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

mft has is and will continue to evolv, the mount is flexible and well thought out enough to allow this ( unlike some other mounts)...

Over the last 5 years the various mft  models have been successfully aimed at different consumer segments.I'm pretty sure Oly has the next 5 years figured out and Panny the next 3 years.

Yes it would be interesting to see a monthly or quarterly breakdown  of ALL the mirrorless players figures but this is unlikely to happen.

living life to the Four Thirds!
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