MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions
peevee1
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Re: MFT shipments down....Not!
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 26, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

1. Panny and Oly have stated their major releases/announcements would be in April as this was the best month to launch.

2.Headline extremely misleading... It's mirrorless  sales "down" which would include Nikon 1 and Eos M which might have bombed and the Nex  might of slowed.It stays nothing about mft sales!

True. k-01 died also.

3. The EM-5 has only previewed in March 2012 and didn't start shipping until late April 2012 ie the 2nd quarter.Similar story for the GX1

4.Units shipped isn't the same as sales,

Exactly for that reason "shipped" means shipped from manufacturer the stores, not to the end customers. First shipment happens around the time of announcement and a few days/weeks after when retailers make their orders, so by release date retailers would have some inventory to be able to sell the camera to customers. For example, OM-D was announced in March and some customers received it in the beginning of April (even before April 16th general availability at big retailers like Amazon). Not that it was high-volume camera at first, until the rave reviews started to come in. They don't fly each camera on a plane, and with container trucks/rail/ships/trucks/rail/trucks it takes a month or more to get from somewhere in China to a photo store near you.

They also don't trickle the cameras, they are produced and shipped in big batches, all the process is very front heavy to satisfy the heaviest first demand and fill the inventories/store shelves. A lot of cameras announced during Photokina were shipped in the 3rd/4th quarters of 2012.

In the 1st quarter of 2013 nothing new was announced, apart from a couple of unpopular Samsung NX and more popular NEX-3n. Maybe some late shipments of GH3 were made, but this is an expensive (read - low volume) camera. So few shipments are quite expected. Probably the largest shipments are NEX-3n, which is not really upgrade to anything (maybe is somebody's NEX-3 has broken down, C3 and F3 etc are just as good), so must be new customers.

This quarter so far does not look promising either, just G6 (E-P5 shapes out to be low volume at the rumored price and minimal changes to E-PL5). 2012 was probably the best year for cameras ever and will stay like that. Unless India and China will become richer and more demanding faster than smartphone cameras improve.

Wait, CIPA probably does not even count Samsung, it is a Japanese organization, right?

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

agentul wrote:

if you look at the trend, you can figure out who is buying these cameras (almost). it looks like mirorless cameras are bought mostly as a gift or a hobby item (peaks around US tax refund time and Christmas shopping season). DSLRs peaked in the summer. I'd suspect it has something to do with most weddings taking place then, but I might be wrong.

As Thom Hogan noted, the peak last year probably reflected large initial shipments of OM-D, NEX-7, GX-1 and X-Pro1.

The OMD didn't start retailing until late April 2012 and the GX1  didn't start hitting retailers in significant numbers also until April 2012.

Who was pushing out loads of mirrorless stock ( not mft) in quarter 1 of 2012 (and q4 of 2011) that they then had to mark down by 60% in q3 and then failed again with their V2,J2 and S1???

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Hen3ry
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Take some pictures and show them
In reply to ryan2007, Apr 26, 2013

ryan2007 wrote:

I can speak for the GH-3 and pre-orders with B&H for example.  If you want an item that can be pre-ordered do it today. They only authorize your card which is reducing your credit line/limit. You are charged once it ships.

I pre-ordered the GH-3 about a week after it was announced and it still took maybe 60 days to get that first delivery.

B&H until fairly recently the GH-3 has not been "in stock" it went from pre-order to backorder quickly.

Many pre-ordered the camera from B&H and Amazon and just canceled the pre-order at the other place.

You are getting in line to get the camera that most likely will be hard to get for a while.

I'm waiting to see what happens with the Xpro-2 as I decide what to do or not do with my GH-3 set-up.

While you are waiting, take some picture, Ryan, and load them up to your gallery. That's what most people on these forums do with their GH3 or other camera -- always assuming they have the camera and know how to point it and press the shutter button.

Cheers, geoff

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MichaelKJ
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Re: MFT shipments down....Not!
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 26, 2013

YouDidntDidYou wrote:

1. Panny and Oly have stated their major releases/announcements would be in April as this was the best month to launch.

2.Headline extremely misleading... It's mirrorless  sales "down"

My mistake

which would include Nikon 1 and Eos M which might have bombed and the Nex  might of slowed.It stays nothing about mft sales!

Highly unlikely that MFT shipments aren't down. At best, your comment should have been titled possibility not, since you have no idea if your interpretation is true. Since the EOS-M wasn't even shipping a year ago it obviously can't explain why March 2013 shipments were only 58% as large as March 2012. (FYI, the EOS-M double kit lens is currently the best selling mirrorless camera configuration in Japan http://bcnranking.jp/category/subcategory_0008.html )

3. The EM-5 has only previewed in March 2012 and didn't start shipping until late April 2012 ie the 2nd quarter.Similar story for the GX1

Then why did shipments decrease from March 2012 to April 2012? Based on your logic, one would expect them to have increased.

4.Units shipped isn't the same as sales,

Obviously, but you can't sell more than you ship (unless you can unload excess inventory).

also the figures might reflect tighter stock control, also the figures do not reflect average selling price( which now might be higher now because the V1 and J1 are no longer being sold at "fire sale" prices, PENs are being less discounted and Fuji,Oly and Panny are concentrating more on the enthusiasts and semi-pro market)

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down....Not!
In reply to peevee1, Apr 26, 2013

I tested a preproduction E-M5 on 6th March 2012 and spoke to a lot of retailers at the NEC show who were taking pre-orders to  ship in mid-April which is quarter 2. Also yes cameras are produced in big batches but most retailers (including amazon) operate just in time stock ( with more frequent deliveries) to maximise cash flow.

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Jorginho
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Again, this says little too
In reply to cfh25, Apr 26, 2013

We need answers if we want to know, not assumptioms.

1) Are people shooting more with iPhones etc simply because they make it easy?

2) Are they eroding all camera sales?

3) are they eroding P&S sales?

4) Are they also enhancing sales, as people get more interested in photgraphy but want better IQ (in the short run, or in the long run?)?

It is not that easy, but I suspect that the specialized camera's that are meant for people interested in pjhotgraphy will be less affected than P&S cams.

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Jorginho
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Re: Means little
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

The obvious question is:

- What causes lower demand?

- Is it the economy?

- Is it the economy in certain places?

- Is it a ongoing trend of lacking interest in ILC camera's?

5 periods most likely cannot get you anything significant. You need to have data over a longer time to say anything about a trend. Is the low last quarter a low that won't be eclipsed in the next 5 years or is it just a sign of a continuing downward trend. We cannot possibly know.

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down....Not!
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

How many of the those 1.04 million units in q1 of 2012 were Nikon 1 V1 and J1's? My guess is a good 200-300,000 or more! How many J3,J2, V2 and S1 in q1 of 2013.... Not very many!!!

I don't know if mft sales are up, down or the same but I can tell you mft user activity is very robust on flickr, preview and on the many various mft community websites...

Based on anyone's logic you can tell diddly squat about mft sales from those figures.

Hmmmm... I wonder who was unloading excess mirrorless inventory in q3 of 2012 ( probably shipped in q1 and sat on the shelves for 6 months) of their V1 and J1

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b534202
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

How much from each quarter are MFT?

I'm just wondering how you can conclusively say that MFT shipments are down and then quote numbers for all mirrorless.

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amalric
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to b534202, Apr 27, 2013

b534202 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

How much from each quarter are MFT?

I'm just wondering how you can conclusively say that MFT shipments are down and then quote numbers for all mirrorless.

Indeed. What is known is that there has been some sort of mirrorles peaking even in Japan.

Hogan also made the prediction that smartphones would be the main factor in market saturation for all cameras.

All that I am assuming is that if markets are contracting, enthusiasts and pro will buy cameras getting more expensive, while others will drop out. There might be a segment that will keep using ILS as a status symbol.

The fact that DPR was split in two, with one part for phones, should have been an eye opener.

The implicit question of the OP seems to be: should we worry about the future of m4/3 (as any other system)?

This however would need other figures: how many years the whole of m4/3 has been in the red? Are ne entrants, such as Kodak, a sign that the system is viable, albeit with cheaper labour costs?

No simple answers really. The last time I read Hogan he remarked that 50% of the camera market is still held by two actors, while the next 50% by 11 - that would be mirrorless mainly. That's too many - so presumably some concentration is needed in mirrorless. M4/3 should stand a good chance of survival, although nothing is granted.

Global markets are still not so bullish to predict a fair future for what are essentially luxury goods. But I still believe that Asia will help.

Am.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: Means little
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 27, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

The obvious question is:

- What causes lower demand?

Regardless of the cause, lower demand is lower demand.

- Is it the economy?

That probably has something to do with it, although smartphone sales continue to increase despite the global recession.

- Is it the economy in certain places?

- Is it a ongoing trend of lacking interest in ILC camera's?

Hopefully demand will increase. However, I think it is clear that these are difficult times for camera companies.  The combination of lower demand for ILCs and increased mirrorless competition is reason for concern, and I think it is foolish to pretend otherwise.  I think MFT is well positioned versus other formats, but the next couple of years are going to be difficult.

5 periods most likely cannot get you anything significant.

How many iPhones and iPads were sold in the first 5 quarters after they were launched? What was their impact on Apple's competitors in those 5 quarters?  How many quarters did it take the BlackBerry to go from being a highly profitable company to one that is fighting for survival? How long did it take Samsung to go from being a minor player in the smartphone industry to the top seller? In highly dynamic industries with disruptive technology, five quarters is a long time.

You need to have data over a longer time to say anything about a trend. Is the low last quarter a low that won't be eclipsed in the next 5 years or is it just a sign of a continuing downward trend. We cannot possibly know.

Financial results for the most recent quarter will be released by most camera companies in early May. Let's hope for the best.

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deckfrost
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Re: Again, this says little too
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 27, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

We need answers if we want to know, not assumptioms.

1) Are people shooting more with iPhones etc simply because they make it easy?

It s not only easy, it s bloody good if you do not need shallow DOF.And with your iphone you can edit with quite powerful softwares and email / upload to facebook/flikr/whatever strait away.Make a normal camera look like dinosaur.

nowdays there is very little point spending money on a clumpy camera to take pics with large DOF, the quality is incremental at best.The shallow DOF is the only thing that differentiate cameras from Iphone 5/5s/6 etc..

And these numbers show that less and less people care.Phones are becoming good enough and its only going to get worst are they are getting better each passing generation.

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Art_P
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If you average
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

Q4 '12 and Q1 '13 you get about 1,000,000 each quarter... So it's looking to me like some bought early skewing the figures

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down...NOT
In reply to amalric, Apr 27, 2013

Olympus successfully targeted and saturated the camera joshi market in Japan with their mirrorless. Now Fuji, Panny and Oly and Sony somewhat are targeting the semi pro and enthusiasts segment.

Making a dull and obvious "prediction" that smartphones would affect the camera was hardly rocket science, stated elsewhere many times previously by others and would of been planned for the leading mirrorless players.

The main factor affecting mirrorless sales is the poor state of the economy in many parts of the world more people are holding back from upgrading eg look at D4 sales...lacklustre also in these times people are less likely to try something new and more inclined to stay with what they know ie DSLRs.

I never seen any figures showing mft is in the red,Oly and Panny have publicly stated that their mirrorless offerings are the profitable parts of their imaging divisions. Maybe some other camera company's mirrorless system is in the red when they failed to live up to their own internal sales targets, haven't even done a million units and what they did sell was largely sold at 60% discount *cough cough*

Mft needs to be more aggressive in targeting Russia, Brazil,India and their nearby countries, I believe mft is already doing reasonably well in China.North America is a slow burn.

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Domagoj Batinic
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

with olympus about to introduce new Pen and later in the year new OM-D ,maybe it's the case of people waiting to see what improvements will be in those camera, rather then buying existing cameras

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Jorginho
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Re: Means little
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 27, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Jorginho wrote:

The obvious question is:

- What causes lower demand?

Regardless of the cause, lower demand is lower demand.

I did not say the demand was not lower, I said that numebr sin itself mean little. It is just like the warming of the Earth stands still since a year or 5-6. To conclude that is easy, to claim that it is probably a sign that human induced globnal warming is not real is wrong. You need to know why it happens. In my vierw that is.

- Is it the economy?

That probably has something to do with it, although smartphone sales continue to increase despite the global recession.

These are in another price range and do a lot more than shooting pictures. It is probably one of the things people feel they cannot do without and are willing to invest in still. Camera's are different.

- Is it the economy in certain places?

- Is it a ongoing trend of lacking interest in ILC camera's?

Hopefully demand will increase. However, I think it is clear that these are difficult times for camera companies.  The combination of lower demand for ILCs and increased mirrorless competition is reason for concern, and I think it is foolish to pretend otherwise.  I think MFT is well positioned versus other formats, but the next couple of years are going to be difficult.

I am not arguing with that in general. But these sales figures cannot help nor give any clue about anything you write here. They are just 5 quarters and people come up with assuimptions or conclusions. What you do know is what I was aiming for: what is the reason behind it? That seems essential. If it is the world wide economic problemmostly, than that will resolve itself. If it is that most of the sales were done by iPhone users, than it is a whole lot different.

5 periods most likely cannot get you anything significant.

How many iPhones and iPads were sold in the first 5 quarters after they were launched? What was their impact on Apple's competitors in those 5 quarters?  How many quarters did it take the BlackBerry to go from being a highly profitable company to one that is fighting for survival? How long did it take Samsung to go from being a minor player in the smartphone industry to the top seller? In highly dynamic industries with disruptive technology, five quarters is a long time.

"Most likely". In some cases, it can. But when you see things going upo and down and not in a straight line up for one brand and straight down for another, you need to come up with an explanation.

In this case, you do not know anything about seasonal variation because there has not been more than one summer season. Etc. Really complete nonsense

Also: fluctuation seems strong. whereas this quarter was poor, the Q4 of 2012 had sales almost doubled over those of Q3. No one can tell us that such a rise is to be expected. That such a rise stems from people in economic worse times to have saved to make the holidays something special still (who knows) You do not know anything about Q3 pr Q2 in 2011 so you cannot even compare with ONE previous season.

Something that responds so fast that seasonal variation is probably not that important may be can render statistical significant results. But somehting where you can at least expect seasonal variation cannot be assessed when you hae no comparison data, no reasoning behind this.

Only in this case= meaningless.

it is nitpicking: People could have said: "wow big bump in sales, mirrorless is doing very well and inspite of economically bad times they sold weel in Q4." Just nitpicking.

You need to have data over a longer time to say anything about a trend. Is the low last quarter a low that won't be eclipsed in the next 5 years or is it just a sign of a continuing downward trend. We cannot possibly know.

Financial results for the most recent quarter will be released by most camera companies in early May. Let's hope for the best.

'Let's hope for an explanation. A slow fall can be a very good result, a small rise can be a very bad result. It depends on the reasons and well founded expectations.

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Jorginho
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Re: Again, this says little too
In reply to deckfrost, Apr 27, 2013

deckfrost wrote:

Jorginho wrote:

We need answers if we want to know, not assumptioms.

1) Are people shooting more with iPhones etc simply because they make it easy?

It s not only easy, it s bloody good if you do not need shallow DOF.And with your iphone you can edit with quite powerful softwares and email / upload to facebook/flikr/whatever strait away.Make a normal camera look like dinosaur.

nowdays there is very little point spending money on a clumpy camera to take pics with large DOF, the quality is incremental at best.The shallow DOF is the only thing that differentiate cameras from Iphone 5/5s/6 etc..

And these numbers show that less and less people care.Phones are becoming good enough and its only going to get worst are they are getting better each passing generation.

Assumptions. These numbers tell us nothing. Zip. If all you base yourself on is assumptions. may be you also think a camera is good because DxOmark sensorscores show you it is a very good sensor.

There are many more aspects to a camera than just a sensor and there is more to trends and their signifcance than 5 quarters of date not even covering all seasons twice...

If an iPhone can do everything a FF can, I'll be mor ethan happy. I think these are tools, how a get from a to b to me is relevant: in the easiest way. In the end, it is the skill of the photographer that for 90% dictates if the pic is good, mediocre or bad.

Also: if more people shoot it is possible more talented photographers will emerge, raising the standard of photography. But that is an assumption too...

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Jorginho
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yes..fear..nothing to base yourself upon
In reply to amalric, Apr 27, 2013

Worrying is pretty useless. My camera's nor lenses stop working when sales hit zero..

How does worrying over something help in a case like this: where it affects each option you may consider? If I am correct this was about all mirrorless sales, isn't it? Chose somehting you simply do not like? A DSLR (for most of us) which you do not want? Is it doing much better?

You cannot live in the future, you cannot live in the past. You can only live in the present. But this society gives you the signal that the future is very important now. To some extend it is, but it is better to do somehting that influences your life in the future thatis of any signifcance and where you can have a meaningfull effect on. Go study if you want that job etc. Worrying is mostly done over things we have little control over, hence the worry. Like in this case. So if this is the signal, then just get the cam you like now for what it does for you now (and the near future, lets remain realistic). That's it.

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micronean
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Domagoj Batinic, Apr 27, 2013

Domagoj Batinic wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

with olympus about to introduce new Pen and later in the year new OM-D ,maybe it's the case of people waiting to see what improvements will be in those camera, rather then buying existing cameras

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I'm thinking it may be something along those lines.

As these are numbers of units shipped, it may be a problem with the retailers moreso than with consumers. I wonder if maybe too many products last year were shipped, but not sold, and this year, retailers are holding back their orders. Also, stores like Best Buy are having their own financial problems, and never mind the small camera shops that keep closing down. So they are hesitant on making orders until there is a very popular camera coming, or until Christmas shopping season and no more.

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Jorginho
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Re: MFT shipments down...NOT
In reply to YouDidntDidYou, Apr 27, 2013

Which company are you talking about (60% discount etc)? You got me curious.

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