MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions
MichaelKJ
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MFT shipments down
Apr 26, 2013

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

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Neurad1
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Do you know a place where they report orders? I'd like to get an idea about the demand for a couple of cameras I'm considering (Fuji X100s, Ricoh GR V) that are currently out of stock or not yet released but available for pre-order. I need one by June 1, and am not going to bother if either won't be available until after that...I realize neither of these are M43...

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cptobvious
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

Too much unsold inventory floating around.  Yet Panasonic and Olympus are still replacing some cameras that are mere months old (e.g., GF5, E-PL5).

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agentul
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to cptobvious, Apr 26, 2013

cptobvious wrote:

Too much unsold inventory floating around.  Yet Panasonic and Olympus are still replacing some cameras that are mere months old (e.g., GF5, E-PL5).

with minor updates. even though the situation is not entirely similar, they should take a look at other situations that bear some similarities, which just induce a sentiment of frustration to end customers:

- the PC market from 10 years ago

- Autodesk's business model regarding Autocad

- A lot of the car manufacturers on the "tick-tock" Intel-like 4 year cycle (tick1 = introduce model, tock1 = introduce facelift after 2 years, tick2 = introduce redesigned model after another 2 years, tock2 = introduce facelift to the new model, etc, etc). I've seen this happening a lot in recent years. It may have something to do to ever-changing safety and pollution standards, but you don't have to redesign a whole car most of the time to accommodate this.

The main underlying problem is the march towards the "consumer society" (which reminds me of the march towards the "communist society"), in which everything must be a consumable so that there is ever-increasing demand and the consumer is actually a slave that works just to pay for whatever is being produced (or just to replace what has broken down - but nobody tells you that). We could have a whole argument on this topic alone.

This whole madness is fueled by "analysts", be them marketing, financial or just people with published opinions. They are the main agents demanding ever-increasing innovation and sales, without taking into account simple facts of human life. Like: "I just bought this camera, I'd like to keep it for a few years". But, no, if a manufacturer doesn't put out a new model every few months they are bad mouthed as being on the verge of collapse - look at the people crying the end of Apple, Microsoft, maybe even Pentax, I don't know. These opinions, often presented as absolute truth, are red by investors or investment fund managers or stock traders or just normal people who just don't know better and then they decide to sell said company's stock. So the company does struggle, but not because it doesn't have a good product, but because of the stock market.

And the "Panasonic came out with a new model and it doesn't have the newest sensor in it, m4/3 is all doomed now because of it" attitude of some people doesn't really help either. It's not like you're being forced to buy it. I suspect that most people saying these things weren't even looking to buy a new camera in the near future.

The point I'm trying to make is this: market saturation+very good products+really short upgrade cycles+luxury items = decreased demand. Never forget that these cameras are luxury items for 99% of the people.And they are really really good compared to what most people use (not counting the FF people, who can't seem to grasp the concept of "value" and wonder why we don't all have $3000 cameras). So, really once you buy a m4/3 camera, why would a normal person replace it every year or so just because there's a slightly better model out? Not everybody cares, or has the time to sell the old body, or has the money for a new body, etc. Why not buy lens, filters, cases... or just be happy with what you have for 5 years?

Taking pictures (I can't say that what I do with my cameras can be called "photography") is a hobby for me. As such, it really prone to underfunding when anything slightly more important comes along.

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jcharding
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

Both the mirrorless and DSLR charts show essentially the same thing - demand for interchangeable lens cameras is significantly less than 12 months ago.  IMHO its not a doom and gloom for either type of camera - all of them are of such high quality that replacing them annually is wholly unnecessary.

Edit.  And the correct title for this thread should be mirrorless shipments down.  For all we know mft shipments were stable and NEX shipments were way down.

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agentul
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to jcharding, Apr 26, 2013

if you look at the trend, you can figure out who is buying these cameras (almost). it looks like mirorless cameras are bought mostly as a gift or a hobby item (peaks around US tax refund time and Christmas shopping season). DSLRs peaked in the summer. I'd suspect it has something to do with most weddings taking place then, but I might be wrong.

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s_grins
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Neurad1, Apr 26, 2013

Neurad1 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Do you know a place where they report orders? I'd like to get an idea about the demand for a couple of cameras I'm considering (Fuji X100s, Ricoh GR V) that are currently out of stock or not yet released but available for pre-order. I need one by June 1, and am not going to bother if either won't be available until after that...I realize neither of these are M43...

This is wrong place for looking for the camera!

Check rumors - they should help you

-- hide signature --

Looking for equilibrium...

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Neurad1
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to s_grins, Apr 26, 2013

s_grins wrote:

Neurad1 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Do you know a place where they report orders? I'd like to get an idea about the demand for a couple of cameras I'm considering (Fuji X100s, Ricoh GR V) that are currently out of stock or not yet released but available for pre-order. I need one by June 1, and am not going to bother if either won't be available until after that...I realize neither of these are M43...

This is wrong place for looking for the camera!

Check rumors - they should help you

-- hide signature --

Looking for equilibrium...

Sorry!! But I do have an OMD and 10 m43 lenses, so I'm on your team.

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s_grins
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Neurad1, Apr 26, 2013

Neurad1 wrote:

s_grins wrote:

Neurad1 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Do you know a place where they report orders? I'd like to get an idea about the demand for a couple of cameras I'm considering (Fuji X100s, Ricoh GR V) that are currently out of stock or not yet released but available for pre-order. I need one by June 1, and am not going to bother if either won't be available until after that...I realize neither of these are M43...

This is wrong place for looking for the camera!

Check rumors - they should help you

-- hide signature --

Looking for equilibrium...

Sorry!! But I do have an OMD and 10 m43 lenses, so I'm on your team.

Good for you to have all this gear you mentioned. My point was that forum has no influence on cameras supply chain.

-- hide signature --

Looking for equilibrium...

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Jorginho
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Means little
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

- 5 quarters is not meaningfull. You cannot see a trend based on 5 rather fluctuating quarters

- It is even less meaningfull if you do not know why.

Withotut a longer period, and reasining, all we can say is that there are les sales now than a year ago. That is all. We cannot say anything about its significance nor iof it means anything for the future.

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Sean Nelson
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to agentul, Apr 26, 2013

agentul wrote:

But, no, if a manufacturer doesn't put out a new model every few months they are bad mouthed as being on the verge of collapse - look at the people crying the end of Apple, Microsoft, maybe even Pentax, I don't know.

I miss the old days when consumers demanded products that were reliable and were expected to last a long time.   I was really p*ssed off when I could no longer buy the proprietary batteries required for my first cell phone, which forced me into buying a phone I didn't need.   It's one of the reasons I really, really love equipment that takes AA batteries.   I'm still using the DSLR and compact camera I bought 5 years ago, both of which take AA batteries.  They work like new.   The sole reason I'm looking for a replacement is because of HD video, and I'm taking my sweet time to choose a camera that suits me perfectly so that I don't have to go and replace it for another 5 or hopefully 10 years.

This Li-Ion proprietary battery nonsense is a real scam, and it annoys me that consumers put up with it.   There's absolutely no technical reason why the photographic and other industries couldn't standardize on some standard Li-Ion form factors.   It's greed and planned obsolescence, pure and simple.

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Einst Stein
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

What about shipping to booking ratio?, shipping is half story, booking could be more
important.

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cfh25
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Re: Means little
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 26, 2013

See the first paragraph of the article on his Nikon site:

"Apple today launched a new TV campaign. A one minute ad of people using iPhones as cameras with only one line at the end: "Every day, more photos are taken with the iPhone than any other camera."

The erosion of all areas of the traditional camera market - DSLRs, mirrorless, and compacts - is easily explained. Why carry a phone, a camera, a computer, a gps, a TV, when you can get them in one unit. Whilst there'll remain a market for the enthusiast, the casual family photographer has gone elsewhere.

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Neurad1
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to s_grins, Apr 26, 2013

s_grins wrote:

Neurad1 wrote:

s_grins wrote:

Neurad1 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Do you know a place where they report orders? I'd like to get an idea about the demand for a couple of cameras I'm considering (Fuji X100s, Ricoh GR V) that are currently out of stock or not yet released but available for pre-order. I need one by June 1, and am not going to bother if either won't be available until after that...I realize neither of these are M43...

This is wrong place for looking for the camera!

Check rumors - they should help you

-- hide signature --

Looking for equilibrium...

Sorry!! But I do have an OMD and 10 m43 lenses, so I'm on your team.

Good for you to have all this gear you mentioned. My point was that forum has no influence on cameras supply chain.

-- hide signature --

Looking for equilibrium...

I understand that, which is why I noted originally that I wish there was a way to get a feel about demand.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to agentul, Apr 26, 2013

agentul wrote:

if you look at the trend, you can figure out who is buying these cameras (almost). it looks like mirorless cameras are bought mostly as a gift or a hobby item (peaks around US tax refund time and Christmas shopping season). DSLRs peaked in the summer. I'd suspect it has something to do with most weddings taking place then, but I might be wrong.

As Thom Hogan noted, the peak last year probably reflected large initial shipments of OM-D, NEX-7, GX-1 and X-Pro1.

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MichaelKJ
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Re: Means little
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 26, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

- 5 quarters is not meaningfull. You cannot see a trend based on 5 rather fluctuating quarters

Your thinking differs greatly from that of most investors.  A significant one quarter decline can have a large impact on stock prices.  In the electronics industry, five quarters is a long time.

- It is even less meaningfull if you do not know why.

Decreased shipments almost always mean lower demand.  What information do you think one should obtain in order to consider the data meaningful?

Withotut a longer period, and reasining, all we can say is that there are les sales now than a year ago. That is all. We cannot say anything about its significance nor iof it means anything for the future.

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ryan2007
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to Neurad1, Apr 26, 2013

Neurad1 wrote:

MichaelKJ wrote:

Thom Hogan has an article on CIPA mirrorless shipments

Here are the quarter by quarter numbers:

  • Q1 2012: 1,043,846 units
  • Q2 2012: 882,783 units
  • Q3 2012: 876,919 units
  • Q4 2012: 1,456,054 units
  • Q1 2013: 603,532 units

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/mirrorless-shipments-down.html

Do you know a place where they report orders? I'd like to get an idea about the demand for a couple of cameras I'm considering (Fuji X100s, Ricoh GR V) that are currently out of stock or not yet released but available for pre-order. I need one by June 1, and am not going to bother if either won't be available until after that...I realize neither of these are M43...

I can speak for the GH-3 and pre-orders with B&H for example.  If you want an item that can be pre-ordered do it today. They only authorize your card which is reducing your credit line/limit. You are charged once it ships.

I pre-ordered the GH-3 about a week after it was announced and it still took maybe 60 days to get that first delivery.

B&H until fairly recently the GH-3 has not been "in stock" it went from pre-order to backorder quickly.

Many pre-ordered the camera from B&H and Amazon and just canceled the pre-order at the other place.

You are getting in line to get the camera that most likely will be hard to get for a while.

I'm waiting to see what happens with the Xpro-2 as I decide what to do or not do with my GH-3 set-up.

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Chatokun
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

MichaelKJ wrote:

agentul wrote:

if you look at the trend, you can figure out who is buying these cameras (almost). it looks like mirorless cameras are bought mostly as a gift or a hobby item (peaks around US tax refund time and Christmas shopping season). DSLRs peaked in the summer. I'd suspect it has something to do with most weddings taking place then, but I might be wrong.

As Thom Hogan noted, the peak last year probably reflected large initial shipments of OM-D, NEX-7, GX-1 and X-Pro1.

I purchased my GX1 randomly, but my OMD I purchased on my tax refund. However, it was first quarter 2013. So I guess I'm part of the reduced set.

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Dorus
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Re: MFT shipments down
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

A supportable interpretation of these numbers is that production and shipments were up for the holiday season (Q4 of 2012 being the best of the 5 quarters listed) and fewer units sold than anticipated, leading to a relative oversupply at retailers. This should smooth itself out. Month by month figures may be more useful for detecting trends.

Dorus

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YouDidntDidYou
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Re: MFT shipments down....Not!
In reply to MichaelKJ, Apr 26, 2013

1. Panny and Oly have stated their major releases/announcements would be in April as this was the best month to launch.

2.Headline extremely misleading... It's mirrorless  sales "down" which would include Nikon 1 and Eos M which might have bombed and the Nex  might of slowed.It stays nothing about mft sales!

3. The EM-5 has only previewed in March 2012 and didn't start shipping until late April 2012 ie the 2nd quarter.Similar story for the GX1

4.Units shipped isn't the same as sales, also the figures might reflect tighter stock control, also the figures do not reflect average selling price( which now might be higher now because the V1 and J1 are no longer being sold at "fire sale" prices, PENs are being less discounted and Fuji,Oly and Panny are concentrating more on the enthusiasts and semi-pro market)

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