Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.

Started Apr 10, 2013 | Discussions
Simon Garrett
Veteran MemberPosts: 4,024Gear list
Like?
Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
Apr 10, 2013

Interesting debate on ZDNet today: http://www.zdnet.com/debate/windows-8-can-this-os-be-saved/10117509/

(If the link doesn't work, it's a debate "Windows 8: Can this OS be saved?" on www.zdnet.com)

The two protagonists have fairly well known views: Ed Bott likes everything from Microsoft, and Steven J Vaughan-Nichols has been pretty scathing about W8's Metro UI.

-- hide signature --

Simon

 Simon Garrett's gear list:Simon Garrett's gear list
Nikon D800
malch
Forum ProPosts: 10,564
Like?
Re: Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
In reply to Simon Garrett, Apr 10, 2013

I've been playing with Win 8 a little today.

Frankly, I can't stand it. I actually want a operating system on which to carry out computing. It doesn't do that -- I have to install ClassicShell to actually do anything useful (to me).

I think Windows 8 is basically like a shopping cart with a microwave oven on board. It wants you to buy stuff and then warm it up for you.

And there will be some (significant) demand for the Win 8 paradigm, just as there is a serious demand for fast food.

However, a shopping cart and microwave does not constitute the pinnacle of culinary art. A cordon bleu chef is not going to be impressed by such things. Similarly, I don't see Windows 8 as a suitable platform for a computer professional.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Robert Mckee
New MemberPosts: 18
Like?
Re: Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
In reply to malch, Apr 10, 2013

But what else is there?

Most of all the programs I use are only available for Mac or Windows.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Tom_N
Veteran MemberPosts: 8,008
Like?
Re: Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
In reply to Robert Mckee, Apr 11, 2013

Robert Mckee wrote:

But what else is there?

Windows 7.

When Vista came out, a lot of people and corporations either avoided "upgrading" from XP to Vista, or bought copies of Vista that came with "downgrades" to XP, then used XP.

Much the same could happen with 8 and 7.  You can still get 7 preinstalled on some mail-order PCs, especially PCs marketed to business customers.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
scorrpio
Senior MemberPosts: 2,630
Like?
Re: Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
In reply to Simon Garrett, Apr 11, 2013

Win 8 is [supposedly] quite OK once you install an add-on that eliminates the Metro nonsense out of the way.   If Metro was implemented as a launch-on-demand shell for Windows Phone apps, rather than the main method of interaction with PC, there would hardly be any controversy.   Heck, I don't recall anyone ever making fuss over Windows 7 gadgets, which were available, but entirely optional.   Metro might be fine for touch-based mobile devices, although it certainly isn't storming the market there either - but on laptops, and especially desktops, it's a total flop.

Come to think of it, typical iPhone and Android experience are closer to traditional desktop, albeit touch-based.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Robert Mckee
New MemberPosts: 18
Like?
Re: Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
In reply to scorrpio, Apr 11, 2013

scorrpio wrote:

Win 8 is [supposedly] quite OK once you install an add-on that eliminates the Metro nonsense out of the way.   If Metro was implemented as a launch-on-demand shell for Windows Phone apps, rather than the main method of interaction with PC, there would hardly be any controversy.   Heck, I don't recall anyone ever making fuss over Windows 7 gadgets, which were available, but entirely optional.   Metro might be fine for touch-based mobile devices, although it certainly isn't storming the market there either - but on laptops, and especially desktops, it's a total flop.

Come to think of it, typical iPhone and Android experience are closer to traditional desktop, albeit touch-based.

How do you install the add on that eliminates Metro?

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
scorrpio
Senior MemberPosts: 2,630
Like?
Re: Why Win8 will succeed. Or fail.
In reply to Robert Mckee, Apr 11, 2013
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
CAcreeks
Senior MemberPosts: 6,381
Like?
Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Simon Garrett, Apr 11, 2013

Eweek reports the worst quarterly PC sales (globally) since 1994. That was when PCs came with DOS and Windows 3.1! IDC blames Windows 8.

idc-reports-worst-ever-q1-pc-sales-points-to-windows-8/

This article reports Mac OS X market share at 10% in the US, behind Dell 22% and HP 25%.

Windows 3.1 crashed a lot, but I remember the excitement of loading software from CD, especially Encarta (encyclopedia), games, and educational programs for my kids.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Sean Nelson
Forum ProPosts: 10,255
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to CAcreeks, Apr 11, 2013

CAcreeks wrote:

Eweek reports the worst quarterly PC sales (globally) since 1994. That was when PCs came with DOS and Windows 3.1! IDC blames Windows 8.

While I doubt Windows 8 is stimulating PC sales particularly, I'm not sure it's fair to lay the blame for poor sales at its feet.  Desktop technology has been very stable ever since the Core i5/7 series came out so there's not a lot of reason for most people to upgrade.   At the same time the mobile marketplace is taking off, which is doubtless sucking at least some people's upgrade budgets.

I don't think the interesting thing with Windows is how poor PC sales are - that's pretty much expected IMHO.   The interesting thing is what's happening with Windows mobile devices - which, as far as I can see, is very little.   Mobile is where the action is, and it seems like Windows 8 is mostly missing out on it.   I don't find that surprising, but Metro is Microsoft's ticket to the mobile marketplace.  If they can't do succeed there, then all this Metro angst is for naught.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Simon Garrett
Veteran MemberPosts: 4,024Gear list
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Sean Nelson, Apr 11, 2013

Sean Nelson wrote:

CAcreeks wrote:

Eweek reports the worst quarterly PC sales (globally) since 1994. That was when PCs came with DOS and Windows 3.1! IDC blames Windows 8.

While I doubt Windows 8 is stimulating PC sales particularly, I'm not sure it's fair to lay the blame for poor sales at its feet.  Desktop technology has been very stable ever since the Core i5/7 series came out so there's not a lot of reason for most people to upgrade.   At the same time the mobile marketplace is taking off, which is doubtless sucking at least some people's upgrade budgets.

IDC don't blame W8 entirely for the fall in PC sales, but they say it's a factor, and far from arresting the decline in PC/laptop sales, W8 may be putting people off laptop replacements, and making people think more about tablets.  And at the moment, "tablet" means Android or Apple, not Windows, so Microsoft may be pushing people towards their opponents. Microsoft will eventually have their "Gemini" (Metro) versions of Office etc, but they won't appear for another year, by when it will probably be all over.

I don't think the interesting thing with Windows is how poor PC sales are - that's pretty much expected IMHO.   The interesting thing is what's happening with Windows mobile devices - which, as far as I can see, is very little.   Mobile is where the action is, and it seems like Windows 8 is mostly missing out on it.   I don't find that surprising, but Metro is Microsoft's ticket to the mobile marketplace.  If they can't do succeed there, then all this Metro angst is for naught.

Quite.  Very high risk.  There's nothing so hard to predict as the future, but I reckon the most likely outcome is that Microsoft will fail.

One particular failure (IMHO) is likely to be their view that there should be one platform from phones through tablets to laptops and PCs.  No.  These are different beasts for different purposes.  As Steven J Vaughn-Nichols stated on the debate I cited in the OP:

"Tablets are for information consumers and PCs are for information producers."

Of course there's some overlap, and many people are both at different times, but they are quite different contexts, requiring different apps and with UI optimised to the context.

-- hide signature --

Simon

 Simon Garrett's gear list:Simon Garrett's gear list
Nikon D800
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Sean Nelson
Forum ProPosts: 10,255
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Simon Garrett, Apr 11, 2013

Simon Garrett wrote:

One particular failure (IMHO) is likely to be their view that there should be one platform from phones through tablets to laptops and PCs.  No.  These are different beasts for different purposes.  As Steven J Vaughn-Nichols stated on the debate I cited in the OP:

"Tablets are for information consumers and PCs are for information producers."

Of course there's some overlap, and many people are both at different times, but they are quite different contexts, requiring different apps and with UI optimised to the context.

I couldn't agree more with this!

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
AikenMooney
Contributing MemberPosts: 940
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Sean Nelson, Apr 11, 2013

+10 to that.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Sean Nelson
Forum ProPosts: 10,255
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Sean Nelson, Apr 11, 2013

Justifiable or not, it hit the headlines in today's Financial Post:

Microsoft’s Windows 8 gets blame for worst PC decline on record

They say there's no such thing as bad publicity, but headlines like this are surely causing concern at Microsoft.   If Windows 8 gets into the popular culture as a "flop" then it's game over for their aspirations in the mobile business.   Yes, I know the headline isn't referring to mobile, but once consumers get the memes "Windows 8" and "flop" associated in their brains, the facts of the case are going to be left behind when they're in the phone store...

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
skyglider
Senior MemberPosts: 2,994Gear list
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Simon Garrett, Apr 11, 2013

Simon Garrett wrote:

"Tablets are for information consumers and PCs are for information producers."

Of course there's some overlap, and many people are both at different times, but they are quite different contexts, requiring different apps and with UI optimised to the context.

I love that quote because it may not be obvious at first but is so true.

Sky

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
1w12q312qw1
Contributing MemberPosts: 732
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Sean Nelson, Apr 11, 2013

Sean Nelson wrote:

Justifiable or not, it hit the headlines in today's Financial Post:

Microsoft’s Windows 8 gets blame for worst PC decline on record

They say there's no such thing as bad publicity, but headlines like this are surely causing concern at Microsoft.   If Windows 8 gets into the popular culture as a "flop" then it's game over for their aspirations in the mobile business.   Yes, I know the headline isn't referring to mobile, but once consumers get the memes "Windows 8" and "flop" associated in their brains, the facts of the case are going to be left behind when they're in the phone store...

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/04/11/pc-makers-tablets-are-a-problem-but-not-the-only-problem/

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
hotdog321
Veteran MemberPosts: 9,685
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to 1w12q312qw1, Apr 11, 2013

I agree with all the previous posts and am going to pile on with one more comment. My first computer was a Kaypro 4, then Win 3.1 (gag!) 95, 98, ME, XP, now Win 7. Microsoft seems to be blaming the customer for not accepting their new OS instead of creating a product that customers want to buy, with the unsaid assumption that we should just buy it and shut up. If they had a good product, people would tear the doors off stores to get it.

Personally, I think it is a GREAT idea to have a single product that works on tablet/phone/PC, but Microsoft is way, WAY too late to the game, plus this is an awkward, non-intuitive OS.

Pant. Puff. O.K., vented enough now. Gotta go take my meds!

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
skyglider
Senior MemberPosts: 2,994Gear list
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Sean Nelson, Apr 11, 2013

Sean Nelson wrote:

Justifiable or not, it hit the headlines in today's Financial Post:

Microsoft’s Windows 8 gets blame for worst PC decline on record

I was in the local BestBuy store yesterday.  As usual, I browsed through the computer section looking at the latest and greatest.  In the past, I always saw some folks using the demo desktops and laptops, playing with them for a while and moving to another one.

Yesterday saw a few people try to use the Win8 UI but not being familiar with it, they gave up and after seeing that all of the demo units were displaying the Metro UI, they all walked away.  So in effect, all of the Win8 PCs were just sitting idle the whole time I was lurking.

I bought what I was there for, browsed through the camera section and then looked at the PC section before leaving.  Not a single person was playing with any of the Win8 PCs.

I believe Win8 is hurting the sales of PCs at BestBuy,
Sky

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
hotdog321
Veteran MemberPosts: 9,685
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to skyglider, Apr 12, 2013

That's exactly my experience. At the local Houston Galleria, there is both an Apple store (always packed) and a new equal-sized Microsoft store (crickets chirping). I've stopped in and played around with the Microsoft stuff--I really like the (overpriced) tablet/keyboard design, but the OS leaves me cold. I could be wrong, but I suspect this will be the biggest dud in Microsoft's history--including Vista and ME.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Sean Nelson
Forum ProPosts: 10,255
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to hotdog321, Apr 12, 2013

hotdog321 wrote:

I could be wrong, but I suspect this will be the biggest dud in Microsoft's history--including Vista and ME.

I think it's already more successful than Microsoft Bob...

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
hotdog321
Veteran MemberPosts: 9,685
Like?
Re: Worst. PC. Sales. Ever.
In reply to Sean Nelson, Apr 12, 2013

Don't forget Clippy--Clippy must die!

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Keyboard shortcuts:
FForum MMy threads