Windows 8

Started Mar 23, 2013 | Discussions
skyglider
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Re: "bean counters" are working hard
In reply to Jim Cockfield, Mar 27, 2013

Jim Cockfield wrote:

Yep... Given what appears to be a very "hard line" approach to force the new style on users, I suspect that the "bean counters" have been hard at work.

For example, figuring out what impact reduced sales of Windows will have because many users are going to hate it and refuse to upgrade to it (and/or switch to an alternative Operating System), versus increased revenue from software sales (since *all* apps designed for the new style UI will need to be purchased from Microsoft, where they'll make a profit on competitors applications, too).

So, they may have decided "to heck with the users", and are focusing on making more money from app sales, even if Windows sales decline because fewer buyers will want to use it.

If that scenario happens, MS will die a slow death.  The reason why so many applications are written to run on Windows is because of the huge installed base of the Windows OS.  Small base of Windows OS equals small incentive to write software for Win9 and up.  Windows users will move to Apple or Linux.

I know I'll move to Linux if the scenario you described happens.  Hmmm, maybe I should buy some Apple stocks...

Sky

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Sean Nelson
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Re: "bean counters" are working hard
In reply to skyglider, Mar 27, 2013

skyglider wrote:

Jim Cockfield wrote:

So, they may have decided "to heck with the users", and are focusing on making more money from app sales, even if Windows sales decline because fewer buyers will want to use it.

If that scenario happens, MS will die a slow death.

I think they're doomed to die a slow death anyway, because there's a sea change towards mobile computing and MS's offerings in that space are very poor.   Few apps are available for MS's mobile interface, and their traditional desktop apps aren't designed for small screens.   Even if they were, mobile devices are primarily content consuming devices, not content producing devices - so MS's strengths with products like Office are not a big advantage.

My expectation is that over time desktop computers, and Microsoft with them, are going to become a niche market primarily for content producers - much like the way mainframe computers became a very narrow niche market for very large businesses.

IBM used to be the biggest and best-known computer company in the world.   They weren't agile enough to adapt to desktop computing and now the generation of mobile users has never even heard of them.  The only people who actually care about IBM are IT technologists who work for the very largest businesses.  I see Microsoft suffering a similar fate over the coming years.

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Jim Cockfield
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already happening
In reply to skyglider, Mar 27, 2013

skyglider wrote:

If that scenario happens, MS will die a slow death.

It's already happening, hence the "Yep -- Windows is a dead/dying OS" title I used in my earlier post here.

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/post/51165166

I'm only the messenger.  If Microsoft goes through with removing desktop app compatibility (as the article about Windows Blue I linked to implies), then that's probably because they're focusing on app sales.

With very few exceptions (for example a developer license that allows "side loading"), you can't run any applications that are designed for the new style (formerly known as Metro) User Interface unless you get them from Microsoft's online store (where they'll make a profit on competitors' applications. too).

It's already that way now with Windows 8 (where you can still get desktop apps from other sources, but all apps designed for the new style UI must come from Microsoft's stores).  So ,if they remove the ability to run desktop apps (as some of the articles about where Microsoft is moving to imply), then anything you want to run will need to come from Microsoft.

IOW, on the surface, that's the revenue model they're moving to.   Also, look at the history of Windows 8 development so far.  You could bypass the Metro screens in the original Win 8 developer preview and get a traditional style start menu back again.  But, they "killed" those features in the Consumer Preview (where you needed to use third party software to get a traditional style desktop menu launcher back again), and the same thing applied to the RTM release.

Now, we're seeing articles implying that Windows "Blue" may remove the desktop entirely.

If that turns out to be the case, then any app you want to use will need to come from Microsoft's online stores.  That's the type of revenue model used by Apple for it's IOS devices (iPhone and iPad), where all apps need to come from Apple.  But, at least Apple is smart enough to allow users to install apps from other sources on devices running OS X (Mac desktops and laptops), and realizes that more than one Operating System is needed (IOS for smaller mobile devices like phones and tables, and OS X for larger notebooks and desktops).

But, it looks like Microsoft thinks that the same Operating System can be used by both desktops and mobile devices (meaning a "jack of all trades and a master at none") from what it looks like on the surface right now from analysts writing about their latest Windows Blue development that was leaked.

So, if they stick with that strategy, it looks to me that Windows is a dead/dying OS (as in the title of my previous post about it).

I know I'll move to Linux if the scenario you described happens.  Hmmm, maybe I should buy some Apple stocks...

You don't have to wait.  Just install a few of the popular Linux dstros in a multi-boot config with Windows.  Then, just pick the OS you want to use from a menu each time you reboot your PC.

That's the way all of my computers are setup -- with Windows and Multiple Linux distros on them.  But, I don't use Windows very often.

Just pick one of the popular choices and their installers will automatically create a boot loader and boot menus that include Windows.   It only takes about 10 or 15 minutes to install a mainstream LInux distro "side by side" with Windows now.

Most have "live CDs or DVDs", too.  That way, you can boot into a distro and see if you like it or not before installing it.   I'd start with some of the popular options you'll see on the right side of the main page at http://www.distrowatch.com

For example, Linux Mint, OpenSuse, and Ubuntu.  They all have installers that make it easy to use them in a dual boot config with Windows.--
JimC
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migibson99
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Re: "bean counters" are working hard
In reply to Sean Nelson, Mar 27, 2013

My expectation is that over time desktop computers, and Microsoft with them, are going to become a niche market primarily for content producers

Respectfully disagree.  While many see the rise of tablet computing as a sign that desktops are on the way out, I don't see it that way.  I think desktops/laptops will continue to be an important part of the business world for MANY years to come.  I am in a non technical field, yet I could not/would not do my job on a tablet alone.   I definitely use a tablet as one of the tools in my tool belt, but certainly not the only tool.

I think tablets will compliment, but not replace desktops and laptops for the foreseeable future.  The day that tablets take over the computing world entirely will be the day that tablets can do absolutely everything that a desktop or laptop can do, with absolutely no compromises.  Until that day, I believe that desktops and laptops will be more than a niche.

Imagine a computer hat has all the speed, all the power, and all the storage capacity of a high performance desktop, but with the footprint of a tablet.  Also imagine that you could use this computer as a stand alone device, or wirelessly connect to a keyboard and big screen monitor.  THAT would be a desktop/laptop killer for sure.  Will we ever get to that point?  I bet we do, but I don't think we're even close to seeing that device.

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Sean Nelson
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Re: "bean counters" are working hard
In reply to migibson99, Mar 27, 2013

migibson99 wrote:

My expectation is that over time desktop computers, and Microsoft with them, are going to become a niche market primarily for content producers

Respectfully disagree.  While many see the rise of tablet computing as a sign that desktops are on the way out, I don't see it that way.  I think desktops/laptops will continue to be an important part of the business world for MANY years to come.  I am in a non technical field, yet I could not/would not do my job on a tablet alone.   I definitely use a tablet as one of the tools in my tool belt, but certainly not the only tool.

To the extent that business people are "content producers", yes I agree that the desktop will remain relevant.   But there are an awful lot of job titles in corporations that are basically data lookup or data entry positions - those don't really have a need for a full-fledged desktop.   Indeed, corporate IT departments would love to lock down and simplify systems in those kinds of roles to the greatest degree possible.

And certainly in the great world outside of corporations, the desktop is destined to play second fiddle to mobile devices for most people.

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