Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers

Started Mar 19, 2013 | Discussions
Sergey Borachev
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Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
Mar 19, 2013

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

Acrill
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

nonsense

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Acrill, Mar 19, 2013

Care to elaborate?

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zxaar
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In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

never seen someone so wrong.

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zxaar
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

There are lots of its and bits.

For example "Sony — Lack of NEX lenses is going to hurt them if they're not careful." but Nikon, canon are just fine because apparently they have much more lenses than Sony NEX.

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to zxaar, Mar 19, 2013

zxaar wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

There are lots of its and bits.

For example "Sony — Lack of NEX lenses is going to hurt them if they're not careful." but Nikon, canon are just fine because apparently they have much more lenses than Sony NEX.

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::> Knowledge is mother of efficiency.

Canikon have a much much bigger following and do not need as much lenses as Sony to get a big enough market share once they start doing something serious. Brand affixation, blind faith or whatever, but that should be not under-estimated, especially given their marketing and distribution strengths.

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Acrill
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

Sorry, just countering your prediction with my own prediction.

I suppose time will tell.

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reygon
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Who is Thom?
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

Who is Thom Hogan? Did he predict Olympus will loss money last year? did he predict that Sony will invest $650 Million on Olympus this year?

It's purely speculation. DSLR is still and will still be big. Mirrorless is great for those who research and understand the system but for ordinary consumers the "Joe and Mary" it will be phone camera, P&S or DSLR. Streamlining of models, for example from 10 models to 5 or 6, is just a standard product cycle if some of those are not making money.

What is the market share of mirrorless system? If it reaches 40% then you can say it's there. But no point in speculating really, I just take pictures which every system that suits may scene and for now MFR suits mosts

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Acrill, Mar 19, 2013

Acrill wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

Sorry, just countering your prediction with my own prediction.

I suppose time will tell.

Not my prediction; Thom's, but it seems to make sense although I don't know about how severe or imminent those predicted consequences will be and he did not exactly predict when.  I think the ESOB may be only another of many steps in these unfolding events, which can of course change depending on many things that we do not know yet, e.g. how Nikon responds.

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zxaar
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

zxaar wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

There are lots of its and bits.

For example "Sony — Lack of NEX lenses is going to hurt them if they're not careful." but Nikon, canon are just fine because apparently they have much more lenses than Sony NEX.

-- hide signature --

::> Knowledge is mother of efficiency.

Canikon have a much much bigger following and do not need as much lenses as Sony to get a big enough market share once they start doing something serious. Brand affixation, blind faith or whatever, but that should be not under-estimated, especially given their marketing and distribution strengths.

Bigger following is much more of a reason to worry about lens line up. Somehow the assumption is that if a large number of people are interested in a system they can live with small number of lenses. Which is clearly absurd.

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IrishhAndy
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

He is right.  Olympus have not even persuaded me to buy more than one lens.

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Mike Fewster
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Agreed
In reply to Acrill, Mar 19, 2013

Acrill wrote:

nonsense

Thom obviously hasn't looked at the lens range available for the Nex now for a while plus there is some nice new glass close to release. mft is going just fine and is establishing itself as the small bodied system camera. Let's see how a small dslr handles movies, an increasingly important aspect of these cameras. Canon's previous mirrorless has been a flop and their larger sensor/small bodied cameras have been completely outperformed by the Sony RX100 and RX1

A lot of cameras are sold on ego., ie, the identification that some owners get by having a particular brand around their neck, rather than the actual performance of the gear.We can expect lots of sales to continue to be made on this basis, but bit by bit other brands are encroaching.

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to zxaar, Mar 19, 2013

zxaar wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

zxaar wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

There are lots of its and bits.

For example "Sony — Lack of NEX lenses is going to hurt them if they're not careful." but Nikon, canon are just fine because apparently they have much more lenses than Sony NEX.

-- hide signature --

::> Knowledge is mother of efficiency.

Canikon have a much much bigger following and do not need as much lenses as Sony to get a big enough market share once they start doing something serious. Brand affixation, blind faith or whatever, but that should be not under-estimated, especially given their marketing and distribution strengths.

Bigger following is much more of a reason to worry about lens line up. Somehow the assumption is that if a large number of people are interested in a system they can live with small number of lenses. Which is clearly absurd.

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::> Knowledge is mother of efficiency.

Nobody suggest there is no need for Canon to worry about lens line-up.  Thom was pointing out, I think, that by being able to use existing EF lenses, Canon can get started relatively easilyi.

I think quite a few of his points, while made in stronger words than needed to avoid offending some people, are not so absurd, e.g. that Pentax is for all practical purposes out of this game (barring of course any unforseeable events in future).  All predictions can only be made based on currently available information and can of course be wrong if the scenario changes after the prediction, e.g. the injection of fund by Sony into Olympus, or something like Pentax or Samsung joining M43, which might then gave those makers an much better mirrorless future!

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Agreed
In reply to Mike Fewster, Mar 19, 2013

Mike Fewster wrote:

Acrill wrote:

nonsense

Thom obviously hasn't looked at the lens range available for the Nex now for a while plus there is some nice new glass close to release. mft is going just fine and is establishing itself as the small bodied system camera. Let's see how a small dslr handles movies, an increasingly important aspect of these cameras. Canon's previous mirrorless has been a flop and their larger sensor/small bodied cameras have been completely outperformed by the Sony RX100 and RX1

A lot of cameras are sold on ego., ie, the identification that some owners get by having a particular brand around their neck, rather than the actual performance of the gear.We can expect lots of sales to continue to be made on this basis, but bit by bit other brands are encroaching.

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Mike Fewster
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I hope you are right.  I am all for competitions and not monopoly or duopoly.

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Shirozina
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

Samsung, Sony and Panasonic at least have the advantage over Canon and Nikon in that cameras and lenses are only a tiny part of their manufacturing output and income so they can afford to go toe to toe with them in sales discounts and marketing wars with a much bigger fighting fund from their main product range. To call Canon and Nikon 'Big boys' is ludicrous.

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alatchin
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to IrishhAndy, Mar 19, 2013

IrishhAndy wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

He is right. Olympus have not even persuaded me to buy more than one lens.

LOL if this is the case... You probably dont need anything they are currently selling... Despite beliefs to the contrary marketing and advertising doesnt persuade people to buy things they dont want. However it can help raise awareness of the existence of a product, the uselfulness and a level of value... This is not "persuasion" in the way you suggest above.

But I will give olympus a hand here "go on Andy.. You know you want to... buy the 17mm lens, it is really nice, and we think you would be a happier man for buying it... so go on... gooooowaaaaan. SO will that be Visa or Mastercard?"

Abraham

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to IrishhAndy, Mar 19, 2013

IrishhAndy wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

He is right. Olympus have not even persuaded me to buy more than one lens.

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A solution looking for a problem !

As we have seen there has been a sort of discount war lately, $99 lens, rebates, ...  That could easily get worse and make things very difficult for the less profitable and weaker makers, which include the M43 boys!

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zxaar
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Sergey Borachev wrote:

zxaar wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

zxaar wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

Care to elaborate?

There are lots of its and bits.

For example "Sony — Lack of NEX lenses is going to hurt them if they're not careful." but Nikon, canon are just fine because apparently they have much more lenses than Sony NEX.

-- hide signature --

::> Knowledge is mother of efficiency.

Canikon have a much much bigger following and do not need as much lenses as Sony to get a big enough market share once they start doing something serious. Brand affixation, blind faith or whatever, but that should be not under-estimated, especially given their marketing and distribution strengths.

Bigger following is much more of a reason to worry about lens line up. Somehow the assumption is that if a large number of people are interested in a system they can live with small number of lenses. Which is clearly absurd.

-- hide signature --

::> Knowledge is mother of efficiency.

Nobody suggest there is no need for Canon to worry about lens line-up. Thom was pointing out, I think, that by being able to use existing EF lenses, Canon can get started relatively easilyi.

I think quite a few of his points, while made in stronger words than needed to avoid offending some people, are not so absurd, e.g. that Pentax is for all practical purposes out of this game (barring of course any unforseeable events in future). All predictions can only be made based on currently available information and can of course be wrong if the scenario changes after the prediction, e.g. the injection of fund by Sony into Olympus, or something like Pentax or Samsung joining M43, which might then gave those makers an much better mirrorless future!

I am sorry we are not talking about EF lenses we are talking about the lenses for mirrorless. If you researched there are lots of alpha minolta lenses around so if one takes them into account then Sony is not in such a bad shape as he made them out to be. But as I said he was talking about NEX lenses and thus the same should be applied to other manufacturers too. Not doing so could only mean one of the two things (a) he miscalculated or (b) he was hypocrite (deliberately not treating everyone equals)

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Sergey Borachev
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Re: Time is running out for Samsung, Sony, and other mirrorless camera makers
In reply to Shirozina, Mar 19, 2013

Shirozina wrote:

Sergey Borachev wrote:

... to establish a stronghold before the elephants come a trampling

This is from Thom Hogan's blog

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/dancing-with-elephants.html

The big boys has made their preparation and may soon respond in a big way. First they discount heavily their lower end DSLR products and now it seems their secret mirrorless weapons are about ready.

Samsung, Sony and Panasonic at least have the advantage over Canon and Nikon in that cameras and lenses are only a tiny part of their manufacturing output and income so they can afford to go toe to toe with them in sales discounts and marketing wars with a much bigger fighting fund from their main product range. To call Canon and Nikon 'Big boys' is ludicrous.

I think you actually knew what I meant, that they are big boys in terms of camera business or more precisely non-commercial consumer still camera business. Canikon have around 80% of the camera market, so big they are big boys if they each have 8 or more times the market share. I can't see Samsung sinking in heaps of fund into a tiny part of their business that do not seem to be making inroads from their tiny patches. You were right though, this camera business is a tiny for them, and therefore more like a little toy or unimportant project. If Samsung had wanted to do more in the serious camera market, it could have done so and made its presence felt already given its resources. As for Sony and Panasonic, they are bleeding badly financially speaking even at the broader corporate level, and are in a much weaker position to subsidise their camera divisions. IMO.

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sderdiarian
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Re: Shaking in my boots
In reply to Sergey Borachev, Mar 19, 2013

Thom continues to grab at straws, his much beloved Nikon having totally tanked with the J1/V1  series which has remained stillborn due to too-small a sensor size and poor lens selection.

Now he trots out the EOS-B as his next theoretical mFT killer.  The EOS-B is a non-starter for those interested in small size systems.  We've danced round and round this, but what good is a body made small if the lenses remain large?  And it sounds ungainly as well, too narrow to hold comfortably, yet tall and thick so as to remain effectively large; weird combination.  And it will still have a Canon sensor, several generations behind Sony's.  Thanks, but no thanks.

And Nikon already owns this niche in any case with both the D3200 and D5200.

For those wanting a truly small and high quality system, Olympus simply nailed it with the E-M5 and available mFT lenses.  Success speaks louder than Thom's foolish braying.

Have fun, Canon, while continuing your swan dive in the small full-featured IL camera market.  And yes, the EOS-B will be an elephant, but one shaded pink.  My prediction.

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