COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!

Started Feb 10, 2013 | Discussions
WD
WD
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COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
Feb 10, 2013

PatMann wrote in a previous thread:

A mirrorless APS-C camera can be competitively compact only if it uses a sensor-to-flange distance much shorter than the F mount - more like a logical flange distance for the format - 35mm or less. Yes, it will require another line of lenses, and if Nikon wants to be a leading camera company 5-10 years from now, it will need to have a camera and lens system in this category. DX is positioned right between full frame and CX, all three are logical formats with their own advantages.

Nikon will need to have a full set of APS-C designed fast lenses to take this market - 60mm f/1.4 or 1.2, 35mm f/1.4 or f/1.2, 23-24mm f/1.4 or f/1.2, 16 or 18mm f/1.4 or 1.8, 12mm f/2 or f/2.8, 50-135 f/2.8 zoom. Only the wide zoom and normal zoom are covered in DX today. They haven't produced the core lenses in 14 years of APS-C reflex cameras, but they'd better get at it with mirrorless or the mirrorless makers will suck all their current APS-C customers away - it's happening every day right now - the mirrorless makers including MFT are way ahead of Nikon in prime lenses for this general category.

They can certainly provide an adapter for the transition period from F mount, but to sell the system, they need to have a new lens mount that makes the system compact when used with the core system lenses. I'd be perfectly happy to use an adapter to mount a 70-200 zoom for example, but not a 24mm f/1.4 - it needs to be half the size, bulk and weight and 1/2 to 2/3 the price of the full frame 24mm f/1.4 to sell into that market.

Perhaps Nikon is using the Nikon 1 system as a test platform for technology headed for APS-C in the future. I certainly hope they have a strategy in there somewhere, because it certainly doesn't look like it right now. At least there's nothing obvious that meets MY needs.

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I agree 100%.  I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction.  The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

Nikon realizes they're in a horse race and near the back of the pack, rounding the first turn and heading into the backstretch.  They need to show their supporters they're like Secretariat, who could come from behind and win by 10 lengths!  (I just hope Secretariat has a good Jockey!)

And while we wait, since the race has a way to go yet, give us the dang D400!   It's probably the last one you'll ever have to design.

Warren

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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
In reply to WD, Feb 10, 2013

WD wrote:

PatMann wrote in a previous thread:

A mirrorless APS-C camera can be competitively compact only if it uses a sensor-to-flange distance much shorter than the F mount - more like a logical flange distance for the format - 35mm or less. Yes, it will require another line of lenses, and if Nikon wants to be a leading camera company 5-10 years from now, it will need to have a camera and lens system in this category. DX is positioned right between full frame and CX, all three are logical formats with their own advantages.

Nikon will need to have a full set of APS-C designed fast lenses to take this market - 60mm f/1.4 or 1.2, 35mm f/1.4 or f/1.2, 23-24mm f/1.4 or f/1.2, 16 or 18mm f/1.4 or 1.8, 12mm f/2 or f/2.8, 50-135 f/2.8 zoom. Only the wide zoom and normal zoom are covered in DX today. They haven't produced the core lenses in 14 years of APS-C reflex cameras, but they'd better get at it with mirrorless or the mirrorless makers will suck all their current APS-C customers away - it's happening every day right now - the mirrorless makers including MFT are way ahead of Nikon in prime lenses for this general category.

They can certainly provide an adapter for the transition period from F mount, but to sell the system, they need to have a new lens mount that makes the system compact when used with the core system lenses. I'd be perfectly happy to use an adapter to mount a 70-200 zoom for example, but not a 24mm f/1.4 - it needs to be half the size, bulk and weight and 1/2 to 2/3 the price of the full frame 24mm f/1.4 to sell into that market.

Perhaps Nikon is using the Nikon 1 system as a test platform for technology headed for APS-C in the future. I certainly hope they have a strategy in there somewhere, because it certainly doesn't look like it right now. At least there's nothing obvious that meets MY needs.

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I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

Nikon realizes they're in a horse race and near the back of the pack, rounding the first turn and heading into the backstretch. They need to show their supporters they're like Secretariat, who could come from behind and win by 10 lengths! (I just hope Secretariat has a good Jockey!)

And while we wait, since the race has a way to go yet, give us the dang D400! It's probably the last one you'll ever have to design.

Warren

I dont see this as affecting higher end DSLR sales, but you are right, for what they offer lower end DSLR's are on the way out i.e. smaller viewfinder than both high end DSLR and competitor mirrorless i.e. smaller viewfinder on low end DSLR's, lower fps, shooting menu choices /features not as plentiful on low end DSLR.

The M 4/3 and NEX have a huge jump on this market and if I did not want the faster shooting and a few other things from the D300 (CLS) , autofocus compatibility with specific lenses etc, I would probably have gone with a NEX 7.

I think the Nikon V series should have been APS-C but maybe Nikon did not want to encroach on their own market, but now others have.

Anyway, I would expect that the one of the next D3200 or D5200 series to be mirrorless. I dont see a problem in the flamge distance though, the camras front to back is not that deep/ large, so dont see what it cant be worked into a slightly smaller camera.

That said, I think an even bigger issue will come if / when Sony release a FF NEX. That will be a watershed in cameras I think, if the NEX series is not already.

All those older legacy lenses will become cloer to 'native' focal length again, for those not minding manual focus and many dont have an issue with manual focus, which will only become even easier with a FF NEX viewfinder and focus peaking in that larger frame, than it apparently already is in the NEX series.

If they can maintain a slight advantage in shorter flange distance with that NEX FF, to make the same adapters & lenses from any brand work as is now with the NEX APS-C, it will be a winner.

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malch
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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
In reply to WD, Feb 10, 2013

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

It's going to be a tough road for Nikon.

We all know that Nikon have significant expertise in sensors, optics, AF systems etc.

But that's not going to be the battleground. The market is buying user interface, and integration with networks, computers, other hardware and applications. These are areas where Nikon has shown itself to be less than excellent or innovative.

In many ways, it started with the iPhone. But now look at the way Sony are starting to adopt those ideas into offerings like the NEX. WiFi, in-camera apps for all kinds of stuff including bracketing, HDR, panos, time lapse, social networking and more. Personally, I think Sony's implementation is still a little rough but they "get it" and will refine the details over time.

Nikon are going to have to completely reinvent themselves if they are to produce a NEX smasher in the next year or two (which is what they need to do). I just can't see it happening.

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Phil_L
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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
In reply to malch, Feb 10, 2013

malch wrote:

The market is buying user interface, and integration with networks, computers, other hardware and applications. These are areas where Nikon has shown itself to be less than excellent or innovative.

Excellent analysis, even if I probably won't be buying into that ecosystem.

And the attack is coming from the consumer or "low" end, not from the "pro" end.

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malch
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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
In reply to Phil_L, Feb 10, 2013

Phil_L wrote:

malch wrote:

The market is buying user interface, and integration with networks, computers, other hardware and applications. These are areas where Nikon has shown itself to be less than excellent or innovative.

Excellent analysis, even if I probably won't be buying into that ecosystem.

I didn't think I really needed that stuff either. But now I love being able to transfer a few pics to my computer over WiFi. The NEX apps for bracketing, time lapse etc. leave some things to be desired but they are certainly on the right track.

And the attack is coming from the consumer or "low" end, not from the "pro" end.

Yes, and from consumer electronics companies versus camera/optics companies.

Imagine Apple or Samsung churning out a high end mirrorless camera leveraging all of their smartphone experience. Possibly teaming with someone like Carl Zeiss (or even Nikon) for the better glass just as Sony have done!

It's a revolution and the chances are some blood will be spilled.

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bobn2
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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
In reply to malch, Feb 10, 2013

malch wrote:

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

It's going to be a tough road for Nikon.

We all know that Nikon have significant expertise in sensors, optics, AF systems etc.

But that's not going to be the battleground. The market is buying user interface, and integration with networks, computers, other hardware and applications. These are areas where Nikon has shown itself to be less than excellent or innovative.

In many ways, it started with the iPhone. But now look at the way Sony are starting to adopt those ideas into offerings like the NEX. WiFi, in-camera apps for all kinds of stuff including bracketing, HDR, panos, time lapse, social networking and more. Personally, I think Sony's implementation is still a little rough but they "get it" and will refine the details over time.

Nikon are going to have to completely reinvent themselves if they are to produce a NEX smasher in the next year or two (which is what they need to do). I just can't see it happening.

Spot on. I think Nikon has the most difficulty working this into their culture. Every Nikon wireless interface seems crude and hacked up compared with what the competition is doing, or indeed what they could do quite simply.

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capanikon
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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON!
In reply to WD, Feb 10, 2013

I 100 percent agree with your assessment.

F-mount is gonna be around for a long time yet, but the writing is on the wall. F-mount is gonna fade away. SLRs are the present, but mirrorless is the future.

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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON! Ipads for event photography lol
In reply to bobn2, Feb 10, 2013

bobn2 wrote:

malch wrote:

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

It's going to be a tough road for Nikon.

We all know that Nikon have significant expertise in sensors, optics, AF systems etc.

But that's not going to be the battleground. The market is buying user interface, and integration with networks, computers, other hardware and applications. These are areas where Nikon has shown itself to be less than excellent or innovative.

In many ways, it started with the iPhone. But now look at the way Sony are starting to adopt those ideas into offerings like the NEX. WiFi, in-camera apps for all kinds of stuff including bracketing, HDR, panos, time lapse, social networking and more. Personally, I think Sony's implementation is still a little rough but they "get it" and will refine the details over time.

Nikon are going to have to completely reinvent themselves if they are to produce a NEX smasher in the next year or two (which is what they need to do). I just can't see it happening.

Spot on. I think Nikon has the most difficulty working this into their culture. Every Nikon wireless interface seems crude and hacked up compared with what the competition is doing, or indeed what they could do quite simply.

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Bob

I was at an event a couple months ago cant remember where (memory! lol) but my jaw almost dropped at the sheer number of Ipads pulled out to take a photo of the event. It was like shootout at the OK Corral but with Ipads    I think it was a school do, lots of people. And IPad after Ipad was up in the air taking a shot.

That is where the 'consumer' market is headed and you are right.

At the consumer level, no one cares about ISO, aperture, shutter, they want a nice pic of their boy or girl singing or collecting a prize, or posing with their firends, that they can then email out on facebook, twitter and to the photo printing place.

Not that there is anything wrong with that, its a record of a memory, that will never pass again.

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.....Just from an amateur......''Sometimes it's to your advantage for people to think you're crazy.” I am only a hoobyist, I cannot and do not give expert advice, dont expect it, just take it as a suggestion to think about, but only if you wish to. We should try to not wait for life to happen, while it passes us by.

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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON! Ipads for event photography lol
In reply to Bajerunner, Feb 11, 2013

Bajerunner wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

malch wrote:

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

It's going to be a tough road for Nikon.

We all know that Nikon have significant expertise in sensors, optics, AF systems etc.

But that's not going to be the battleground. The market is buying user interface, and integration with networks, computers, other hardware and applications. These are areas where Nikon has shown itself to be less than excellent or innovative.

In many ways, it started with the iPhone. But now look at the way Sony are starting to adopt those ideas into offerings like the NEX. WiFi, in-camera apps for all kinds of stuff including bracketing, HDR, panos, time lapse, social networking and more. Personally, I think Sony's implementation is still a little rough but they "get it" and will refine the details over time.

Nikon are going to have to completely reinvent themselves if they are to produce a NEX smasher in the next year or two (which is what they need to do). I just can't see it happening.

Spot on. I think Nikon has the most difficulty working this into their culture. Every Nikon wireless interface seems crude and hacked up compared with what the competition is doing, or indeed what they could do quite simply.

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Bob

I was at an event a couple months ago cant remember where (memory! lol) but my jaw almost dropped at the sheer number of Ipads pulled out to take a photo of the event. It was like shootout at the OK Corral but with Ipads I think it was a school do, lots of people. And IPad after Ipad was up in the air taking a shot.

That is where the 'consumer' market is headed and you are right.

At the consumer level, no one cares about ISO, aperture, shutter, they want a nice pic of their boy or girl singing or collecting a prize, or posing with their firends, that they can then email out on facebook, twitter and to the photo printing place.

Not that there is anything wrong with that, its a record of a memory, that will never pass again.

-- hide signature --

.....Just from an amateur......''Sometimes it's to your advantage for people to think you're crazy.” I am only a hoobyist, I cannot and do not give expert advice, dont expect it, just take it as a suggestion to think about, but only if you wish to. We should try to not wait for life to happen, while it passes us by.

Not just the consumer. The ability to network your camera could be a real boon for a serious shooter. It isn't just instant download (though that is pretty good, especially if it happens in the background - imaging finish a shoot and have the whole thing ready downloaded and indexed on your disk as soon as you are done, that would save me loads of time) also remote control and remote LV. I'm thinking if I had that I could do shoots with two or more cameras at once.

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malch
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Re: COME ONNNNNNNN NIKON! Ipads for event photography lol
In reply to bobn2, Feb 11, 2013

bobn2 wrote:

Not just the consumer. The ability to network your camera could be a real boon for a serious shooter. It isn't just instant download (though that is pretty good, especially if it happens in the background - imaging finish a shoot and have the whole thing ready downloaded and indexed on your disk as soon as you are done, that would save me loads of time) also remote control and remote LV. I'm thinking if I had that I could do shoots with two or more cameras at once.

Yup. I think my NEX-6 has more than sufficient IQ for professional studio work. Sure, one would use decent glass (versus a cheap kit zoom). The flash is a bit naff but it has the standard hotshoe. That will take a Pocket Wizard to fire some good studio strobes. Done!

What's not to love about the images going via WiFi to a computer/server and thence onto a big LCD display for review by the photog and his client? Or will you miss all of the fun pulling and inserting memory cards

I think the one group that's going to have to keep on lugging around big heavy DSLR's for a while are the sports/action shooters who need the fastest and best AF performance they can get their hands on, cost be damned.

When mirrorless AF performance catches up (and I think it will) the DSLR is going to look like a dinosaur, even to pros.

With the possible exception of the Big Names, most working pros really care about costs too. The ones I know are all hurting these days. If a sub-$1k body will do the job, that's a significant help.

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MiraShootsNikon
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As an armchair corporate visionary . . .
In reply to capanikon, Feb 11, 2013

capanikon wrote:

I 100 percent agree with your assessment.

F-mount is gonna be around for a long time yet, but the writing is on the wall. F-mount is gonna fade away. SLRs are the present, but mirrorless is the future.

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I disagree, at least for photography involving people and wildlife.   The last time I spent significant shutter time with mirrorless (via a loaned Olympus OM-D), I was simultaneously impressed and disappointed: impressed by the viewfinder's fidelity, speed, and usefulness in exposure / creative visualization; disappointed by the disconnect it enforced between me and my subjects, despite its ostensible advantages.  So much of shooting great portraits involves that perfectly synchronized, perfectly real connection you get by seeing real light not digitally interpreted--so I found shooting fashion with the OM-D to be a real drag.  (Even though by any objective measure, it's a fine camera system.)  And I don't think I'm alone in that assessment.  Sony has had quite some time, now, to make a case for the electronic viewfinder in even more responsive SLR bodies, and their SLT hardware isn't flying off shelves.

I think part of the problem is that the mirrorless / EVF paradigm encourages you to think about post-processing decisions in the viewfinder.  If you shoot the OM-D, when you put your eye to the camera you see the world in Olympus JPEG color and contrast--which, of course, you should feel free to change right then and there if you like.  That was the big rub for me: I just want to concentrate on my model's expression, pose, and movement--on the decisive moment.   The post decisions--color, contrast, structure deviations from camera neutral--I'd prefer to think about on big calibrated high-resolution computer screen, which I can manipulate with truly powerful tools like Photoshop.   The whole "make an arty photograph right from the viewfinder" paradigm the mirrorless / EVF model pushes seems built to appeal to people who think "arty photograph" means manipulation of the camera's built-in "art filters," as opposed to the subject's expression, pose, and movement--elements you absolutely need that immediate visual connection to achieve.

Yikes, that sounds harsher than I mean it to be--again, I've seen some great results from mirrorless, so obviously I'm just sharing one perspective here, not laying down Hammurabi's code on practical camera development.

But I suspect Nikon sees it the way I do, because they've now positioned their DSLRs to be, bottom to top, class-leading tools with serious fundamental capability.   They've largely eschewed the "art filter" approach for features like 24 megapixel sensors, capable focus systems, system-wide creative lighting compatibility, and excellent direct controls.   What's more, every Nikon DSLR can use--and with 24 megapixels, really use--top notch Nikkor lenses.   Say what you will about Nikon dropping the ball on DX lens development, they have a top notch system as a whole.   There's nothing like the f/1.4 primes or the SB-910 / 700 CLS flash system for any mirrorless competitor out there, and all of them work wonderfully with a D3200.

The question, then, is how to leverage the "serious tools for serious artists" approach for greater commercial success?   I think the answer absolutely lies in creating an ecosystem for easy photographic sharing, publication, and distribution, but I disagree that Sony's model--integrating these features directly into the camera--is the best approach.  The goal needs to be simple and straightforward: how does one get his or her photographs out of camera and on to the net as briskly and easily as possible?   An eye-fi card and an iPad already answers that question for many Nikon shooters; but if Nikon were able to integrate WiFi straightforwardly and produce elegant mobile apps, all the better.   The camera doesn't need to replace or integrate the phone and /or tablet, especially if Nikon is really pursuing the "serious artist" approach.  But the more straightforward and trouble-free the camera's cooperation with these devices, the better.

So Nikon, thanks for the smart approach.  Now get crackin' on some equally purposeful, elegant, straightforward software.

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malch
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Re: As an armchair corporate visionary . . .
In reply to MiraShootsNikon, Feb 11, 2013

MiraShootsNikon wrote:

I think part of the problem is that the mirrorless / EVF paradigm encourages you to think about post-processing decisions in the viewfinder. If you shoot the OM-D, when you put your eye to the camera you see the world in Olympus JPEG color and contrast--which, of course, you should feel free to change right then and there if you like. That was the big rub for me: I just want to concentrate on my model's expression, pose, and movement--on the decisive moment. The post decisions--color, contrast, structure deviations from camera neutral--I'd prefer to think about on big calibrated high-resolution computer screen, which I can manipulate with truly powerful tools like Photoshop. The whole "make an arty photograph right from the viewfinder" paradigm the mirrorless / EVF model pushes seems built to appeal to people who think "arty photograph" means manipulation of the camera's built-in "art filters," as opposed to the subject's expression, pose, and movement--elements you absolutely need that immediate visual connection to achieve.

That's an interesting point and I'm sure it will be an issue for a few people.

Personally, I had no problem adapting from an optical to electronic viewfinder. And because I always shoot RAW, I'm not tempted to worry about picture controls/effects.

My kids and next generation of shooters take to electronic realities so readily that they'll probably find optical viewfinders "like totally weird, dude"

And, of course, EVF's are only going to get better.

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intensity studios
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uh, it's really obvious what is going on
In reply to WD, Feb 11, 2013

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

Nikon realizes they're in a horse race and near the back of the pack, rounding the first turn and heading into the backstretch. They need to show their supporters they're like Secretariat, who could come from behind and win by 10 lengths! (I just hope Secretariat has a good Jockey!)

And while we wait, since the race has a way to go yet, give us the dang D400! It's probably the last one you'll ever have to design.

Warren

What do you need, nikon to send  a telegram to you personally? They are slowly killing off DX while putting their main energies into FX. They are testing the waters with mirrorless, but aren't going "all in" with it. All you have to look at is last year's product announcements to see the writing on the wall. It's not that complicated.

Yes, DX will be around for a few more years. They will definitely continue the D3xxx, D5xxx and D7xxx lines for a few more generations. We *might* get a D400, there's a chance. And then what? It could be another 5 years until they update the "pro dx" line after that. Because it is not a moneymaker for Nikon.

DX always was a stopgap measure to get DSLRs to the masses. With the falling cost of full frame sensors, DX is becoming irrelevant. And please, spare me the "DX has more reach" argument. That is super amateur talk. If reach is a major concern with you, there's always teleconverters.

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malch
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Re: As an armchair corporate visionary . . .
In reply to MiraShootsNikon, Feb 11, 2013

MiraShootsNikon wrote:

The question, then, is how to leverage the "serious tools for serious artists" approach for greater commercial success? I think the answer absolutely lies in creating an ecosystem for easy photographic sharing, publication, and distribution, but I disagree that Sony's model--integrating these features directly into the camera--is the best approach. The goal needs to be simple and straightforward: how does one get his or her photographs out of camera and on to the net as briskly and easily as possible? An eye-fi card and an iPad already answers that question for many Nikon shooters; but if Nikon were able to integrate WiFi straightforwardly and produce elegant mobile apps, all the better. The camera doesn't need to replace or integrate the phone and /or tablet, especially if Nikon is really pursuing the "serious artist" approach. But the more straightforward and trouble-free the camera's cooperation with these devices, the better.

I do understand your point but I think Sony have done a better job than you suggest.

I couldn't care less about social networking integration etc. even though that is a big deal for many consumers. Nor am I interested in controlling my camera from my smartphone -- that provided 5 mins of amusement but I don't suppose I'll ever use it again.

However, Sony did give me:

1. Upload to PC via WiFi. Much more useful to me than "upload to Facebook".

2. Some in-camera apps that really do belong in the camera. e.g Multi-frame noise reduction and a time lapse app. There's also an interesting (focus and exposure) bracketing app. The current execution of the latter falls short in my view, but I think they're progressing in the right direction.

Of course, Sony are far from perfect. They've done some stupid things too, IMO. For example, making the IR shutter remote mutually exclusive with bracketing. Duh!

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WD
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Re: uh, it's really obvious what is going on
In reply to intensity studios, Feb 11, 2013

intensity studios wrote:

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

Nikon realizes they're in a horse race and near the back of the pack, rounding the first turn and heading into the backstretch. They need to show their supporters they're like Secretariat, who could come from behind and win by 10 lengths! (I just hope Secretariat has a good Jockey!)

And while we wait, since the race has a way to go yet, give us the dang D400! It's probably the last one you'll ever have to design.

Warren

What do you need, nikon to send a telegram to you personally? They are slowly killing off DX while putting their main energies into FX. They are testing the waters with mirrorless, but aren't going "all in" with it. All you have to look at is last year's product announcements to see the writing on the wall. It's not that complicated.

Yes, DX will be around for a few more years. They will definitely continue the D3xxx, D5xxx and D7xxx lines for a few more generations. We *might* get a D400, there's a chance. And then what? It could be another 5 years until they update the "pro dx" line after that. Because it is not a moneymaker for Nikon.

DX always was a stopgap measure to get DSLRs to the masses. With the falling cost of full frame sensors, DX is becoming irrelevant. And please, spare me the "DX has more reach" argument. That is super amateur talk. If reach is a major concern with you, there's always teleconverters.

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With due respect, Nikon couldn't care less what I, or you, personally think.  They will respond to market forces successfully and thrive, or follow Kodak.

Technology is racing ahead. The mirror and pentaprism is nearing its end. A high pixel sensor with embedded phase-detect focusing capability is here...now.  It's in its infancy, but this baby is already jumping rope!  In a shorter time than many think, it'll be dunking baskets over the head of SLR defenders...to coin a basketball metaphor.  The winning team will produce the best team of "starters" and "reserves on the bench."  (Cameras, lenses and accessories.)  There are more advantages to mirrorless over SLR design than the reverse, from performance to cost of production.  It's also a new, wide open and potentially fast growing market, with huge profit potential.  In what would you invest your future?

The current FX system is the culmination of 50+ years of design and production based on the old 35mm film format.  It makes perfect sense to produce cameras that take advantage of the legacy glass and wrest the highest performance from them.  It also makes sense to do it NOW to encourage  as many as possible to invest in FX dSLR because, purchases of that system will decrease when it becomes apparent it is no longer necessary to invest that level of capital to get satisfactory results.  Stimulating it now, when it's at the top of its game, is a smart move.  It'll be much more difficult to make profits with the legacy designs in the future.

When the mirror mechanism goes, then the legacy glass becomes much less valuable.  FX doesn't become worthless; it won't disappear for a long time; but the user base will steadily shrink.  (How many medium format cameras/users are around?  How profitable is that business?  Is it growing?)  The critically important point for Nikon and Canon is: they will sell fewer SLR cameras and lenses for that format which will mean shrinking profitability in that sector.

As for the dearth of DX lenses:  Why invest in design and production of new lenses for a dying product?  That's often described as the death of DX format.  I and others put forth the argument that it isn't DX format which is dying, but the SLR.  The smart company will be investing resources in future product which can grow sales and profit.  FX lenses can be used on DX SLRs, hence, we've seen numerous new and upgraded FX lenses which is spurring today's market.  Makes perfect sense.  Virtually nothing exciting and new for DX SLR...also makes sense.  It takes as much in resources to produce a lens for SLR as it does for mirrorless, and if the plans are to introduce a superb line of DX mirrorless cameras, the lenses better be ready.

I actually agree with you, Antonio, that the low-end dSLR models will continue for a few more years.  And, we may see the D400 for D300 devotees, of which I'm one.  I simply don't believe the long-term future of digital is the FX format in a dSLR, nor will I be purchasing one.  I don't need what it offers and don't want to give up what my equipment does for me.  A D400???  If it isn't too late in coming.

P.S.  Did you get a telegram??

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Warren

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jfriend00
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Re: uh, it's really obvious what is going on
In reply to intensity studios, Feb 11, 2013

intensity studios wrote:

WD wrote:

I agree 100%. I'm convinced, the reason we haven't seen a D400 or new DX lenses is that Nikon is directing their energy, research and development in the mirrorless direction. The V1 is a working test-bed from which the DX mirrorless system will evolve.

Nikon realizes they're in a horse race and near the back of the pack, rounding the first turn and heading into the backstretch. They need to show their supporters they're like Secretariat, who could come from behind and win by 10 lengths! (I just hope Secretariat has a good Jockey!)

And while we wait, since the race has a way to go yet, give us the dang D400! It's probably the last one you'll ever have to design.

Warren

What do you need, nikon to send a telegram to you personally? They are slowly killing off DX while putting their main energies into FX. They are testing the waters with mirrorless, but aren't going "all in" with it. All you have to look at is last year's product announcements to see the writing on the wall. It's not that complicated.

Yes, DX will be around for a few more years. They will definitely continue the D3xxx, D5xxx and D7xxx lines for a few more generations. We *might* get a D400, there's a chance. And then what? It could be another 5 years until they update the "pro dx" line after that. Because it is not a moneymaker for Nikon.

DX always was a stopgap measure to get DSLRs to the masses. With the falling cost of full frame sensors, DX is becoming irrelevant. And please, spare me the "DX has more reach" argument. That is super amateur talk. If reach is a major concern with you, there's always teleconverters.

There's a little problem with your argument. The price range of FX + lenses is way more than 80% of the dSLR market is willing to pay. FX lenses aren't getting less expensive - in fact they've gone up in the last few years. There's still NO FX body that costs less than the most expensive DX body from the last generation (the D300).

So, if Nikon wants to put all their eggs in the FX basket, they can do that and watch most of their customers move to more affordable options that now have very, very good IQ.

I personally have no interest in either the D600 or D800 because neither is optimized for shooting fast action which is THE reason I own a dSLR and some expensive teles and I'm not going to spend $6k for a D4.

So, instead Nikon is just not getting any of my money because they haven't made a camera FX or DX that is great for what I shoot. And, because their mirrorless is getting the pants beat off it by other mirrorless options like Sony NEX and Oly OMD-EM5, when I buy a more compact camera, it's not even going to be a Nikon either. Nikon can go focus on FX and shrink their target market to ~15% of the total market. Of course, they won't last long as a company doing only that because it won't pay all their bills. Let's hope they're not listening to your ideas. That stopgap measure (DX) is what earns most of the money at Nikon and still is even though Nikon has put so much of their recent development into FX. Good luck Nikon if you think FX and CX are enough for you to stay afloat.

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seahawk
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Re: uh, it's really obvious what is going on
In reply to WD, Feb 11, 2013

I think it would be suicide to drop the F-mount. The huge market for used lenses and the large number of lenses in possession by photographer forms a brand loyalty that only Canon is able to match at the moment. It is logical that other firms go for the mirrorless route, as they have practically lost the DSLR fight to Canon and Nikon.

For Nikon alienating the F-mount users would mean forcing them to buy new gear, not only cameras but also lenses. Now we can guess how likely it is that a Nikon lens owner, whose lens collection (which probably did cost a few thousand bugs) has just been made obsolete by Nikon, will decide to invest in yet another Nikon system. How likely will it be that the Nikon mirrorless system will be as dominating as their DSLR system when compared to anybody but Canon.

Same with the DX DSLR. Any DSLR below the D600 is DX. Most lenses sold today are kit lenses for the DX sensor. Does anybody believe that Nikon will drop thus customer base, I do not.

DX and the DSLR will stay for a very long time, their market share will be eroded by the FX DSLR and new mirrorless systems, but not by as much as people think. Most DSLR bought today are replacing older DSLRs of the same manufacturer, it is a major market, where the new entry into a system is rare. Any Nikon mirrorless system must be able to use the F mount lenses and it must be seen as an addition to the DX DSLR system, same wit the FX system which is an up-grade path from the DX DSLR system. In a mature market Nikon needs to offer as many options to the customers as possible, the last thing they should do is alienate the user base and force them to one new system.

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hobby aviation photographer

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InTheMist
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Re: FE-D
In reply to seahawk, Feb 11, 2013

I want a digital FE-2. Love that old-school look and feel with a F-mount.

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malch
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Re: uh, it's really obvious what is going on
In reply to seahawk, Feb 11, 2013

seahawk wrote:

Same with the DX DSLR. Any DSLR below the D600 is DX. Most lenses sold today are kit lenses for the DX sensor. Does anybody believe that Nikon will drop thus customer base, I do not.

I predicted they wouldn't. But I was wrong.

Nikon did drop the D300 customers.

They successfully migrated some to FX. Others are still waiting for the elusive D400, but quite a few have already abandoned ship. I think it was a huge strategic error -- one that could even prove fatal.

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bobn2
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Re: uh, it's really obvious what is going on
In reply to malch, Feb 11, 2013

malch wrote:

seahawk wrote:

Same with the DX DSLR. Any DSLR below the D600 is DX. Most lenses sold today are kit lenses for the DX sensor. Does anybody believe that Nikon will drop thus customer base, I do not.

I predicted they wouldn't. But I was wrong.

Nikon did drop the D300 customers.

No Nikon did not 'drop the D300 customers'. It provided them with different options. Many have taken the different options.

They successfully migrated some to FX. Others are still waiting for the elusive D400, but quite a few have already abandoned ship. I think it was a huge strategic error -- one that could even prove fatal.

It would be strange if many had abandoned ship, since no other manufacturer provides anywhere for them to go, if they insist on a 'D300' like camera.

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Bob

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