"Mirrorless" is the future???

Started Feb 16, 2012 | Discussions
Richard Frederick
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Re: The big issue, yet to arrive, will swing the top of the line
In reply to peevee1, Apr 15, 2012

Recently I have been shooting with a Nikon D700, a Ricoh GXR, and a modified Sony NEX-7. I like them all.

There are some physics that get in the way of a "large" (APS-C) sensor plus a zoom lens plus small size. Really compact zoom lens cameras are going to have to use a small sensor. If you attache a zoom lens to an APS-C sensor camera you get a much bigger package.

Mirror-less cameras can take advantage of their potentially smaller size by using a small sensor or using a large (APS-C) sensor with rangefinder type lenses that are semi-symetrical and whoes rear elements sit much closer to the image plane. Try fitting a lens designed for reflex cameras to a mirror-less and you will again have a much larger package, because the lens must protrude far enough from the image plane to accomodate the mirror swing of the reflex camera.

There is a place, of course for bothe reflex and EVIL types. I like the Ricoh GXR because it allows me to swap out sensor sizes, use either zoom or single focal length lenses, and use, via adaptors, almost any rangefinder lens available. Therefore the user gets to select the specific size/capability tradeoff for any situation.
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Xoom
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to BobYIL, Apr 17, 2012

The mechanical SLR part of SLR has more or less been stuck in a technological dead end for a while. I think there's room for "mirrorless" and DSLR to coexist, but things will flatten out for DSLR going forward... then there will be something else.

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alexisgreat
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Re: Mirrorless will slash is replacing archaic mirror boxes
In reply to Jay Turberville, Apr 9, 2013

Yup we still have trains, but mirrorless is the future, some people dont seem to understand that companies like Nikon and Canon can only hold the future back for so long (and they're only doing it because they are stuck in the past but now they are onboard the train leading the future also, even if they weren't there in the beginning), let's face it everyone who was using film will be dead within the next generation, and then there will be NO holding back the new technology (personally I would NEVER use any 3:2 format sensor, it looks like an eyesore and prints like one, especially at my favored resolution of 7.5 x 10):

what the great Max Planck said regarding quantum mechanics can also be said about any new technology

Planck experienced the truth of his own earlier observation from his struggle with the older views in his younger years: "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."

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alexisgreat
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to snowshovel 1, Apr 9, 2013

I dont feel bad for Nikon and Canon they have monopolized the market for FAR too long and held back advancement for far too long, but like any dinosaur, they will one day go extinct

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alexisgreat
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to Voff, Apr 9, 2013

Only among old people.

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alexisgreat
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to MrScary, Apr 9, 2013

Nah I put mirrorless (and compacts) to my eyes, but either way, it doesnt matter- DSLR are inelegant beasts with way too many moving parts.

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alexisgreat
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Re: Mirrorless is a good example of disruptive technology
In reply to Voff, Apr 9, 2013

yes it is about removing an archaic feature that is not needed as we move forward- like an appendix as it were

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bosjohn21
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Re: Mirrorless is a good example of disruptive technology
In reply to alexisgreat, Apr 9, 2013

so ok a really long discussion but bottom line is Mirrorless or electronic view finders will be featured in all but the most expensive top of the line cameras is they are much cheaper to make.  The more expensive part of the manufacturing process is glass making for prisms and mechanical mirror floppers and so one.

Its all about ecconomics.

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sandy b
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Maybe someday, not for awhile, 2012 CIPA numbers
In reply to BobYIL, Apr 10, 2013

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

What i found interesting were the CIPA numbers through Oct:

  • DSLR shipments Japan: 814k (6%)
  • DSLR shipments outside Japan: 12.9m (94%)
  • Mirrorless shipments Japan: 582k (19.1%)
  • Mirrorless shipments outside Japan: 2.46m (80.9%)

Clearly mirrorless are on the rise, but they have a LONG way to go befor they overtake dslrs, and Canon and Nikon have the lions share of the DSLR market. So while things are changing, I do not think they are changing as fast as some see it.

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SergioNevermind
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Re: Maybe someday, not for awhile, 2012 CIPA numbers
In reply to sandy b, Apr 10, 2013

SLR  came to make possible interchangeable lenses of all kinds, an aspect that Leica and others could never solve with elegance. Viewfinders never really simphatized with many different focal lenses.

Digital sensors no longer need mirror and prism for you to watch THROUGH THE LENS.

That means MIRRORLESS is obvious.

Prices should reflect this some day..... Too.

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SergioNevermind
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to jon404, Apr 10, 2013

jon404 wrote:

I have an Olympus XZ-1 with an old Pen VF-1 optical viewfinder, for bright days when I can't see the screen. My stepson showed up with a new Panasonic FZ-150 -- electronic viewfinder, 600mm lens -- and I was able to take a picture of a passing small plane, about a mile away, through tree branches -- just like that.

I don't think I could have taken that picture with a large DSLR. No way at all. The size, caused by the mirror-space needs. And -- for that kind of zoom -- an insanely heavy, hard-to-hold zoom.

I believe the future belongs to mega-zoom point 'n shoots with increased sensor quality.

Just thinking wide angle lenses are much better in viewfinder (old mirrorless film) cameras, just a design issue of less distance to the focal plane, and now DIGITAL mirrorless can achieve this short distance and through the lens view, not needing the mirror, or the prism.

Long zoom capabilities is more a matter of sensor size that of mirrorless itself. It happens that (nearly) all mirrorless cameras do have small sensors.

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digitallollygag
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to SergioNevermind, Apr 10, 2013

Wow, guys, this thread was started a year ago.  But I'll offer my two cents.  In all liklihood I've probably purchased my last DSLR with the recent acquisition of my Nikon D5100.  I simply no longer see enough advantages with DSLRs (for my needs) to continue to stick with the "upgrade" habit every three years or so.  I am middle-aged, my 80-200mm f/2.8 is heavy, and in some instances the IQ coming from my Canon S95 and my smartphone seems "good enough" to my failing eyes.

The other thing is Canon and Nikon were late to the mirrorless party.  I think these two companies are headed for a rough road ahead if they don't innovate.  Both companies, especially Nikon, are building bigger, heavier lenses, and from what I see, that is exactly opposite of what most people want.  My little crystal ball is still pretty cloudy, but I'd say the near future belongs to mirrorless cameras, smartphones and Google Glass.

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ArchiDeos
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Re: It's obviouse, isn't it? (NT)
In reply to Yargo, Apr 10, 2013

+ 3 thumbs up... no need to argue.. go out and enjoy.. make the click of the day..

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ZOIP
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to digitallollygag, Apr 10, 2013

I have no doubt at all that mirrorless cameras will ultimately supplant DSLRs and I predict it will occur within the next 4 years.

My belief is based upon several factors not all of which I will mention here but for what it is worth here are my core reasons.

I teach photography, and at each class I take along a collection of cameras, DSLRs, compacts and a mirrorless camera. With few exceptions once students see the cameras in action and understand the benefits and deficits of the options they decide that mirrorless is the way they would prefer to go. As I see it the lower demand for mirrorless is not due to any customer perceived deficiencies re mirrorless but rather a lack of consumer awareness. I fully expect we will reach a point of critical mass where consumer awareness suddenly escalates. At the moment Ii feel a lot of consumers proceed down the DSLR route simply because they are not aware they actually have an alternative viable option. Despite perhaps the interests and pursuits of DP Review forum members, relatively few consumers are actually interested in the photographic tasks where perhaps a DSLR may have a clear advantage, such as shooting sport.

Looking at the differences in a more technical way, most of the mirrorless cameras supposed inherent disavantages, ie, slower focus, poor EVFs, less native lens options, are now pretty much non-issues and will soon be of no consequence at all.

Meanwhile DSLRs have some distinct disadvantages that will be resistent to much further improvement. These include, greater bulk, form factor limitations, shutter noise, tunnel like OVFs, the limitations of not having a viewfinder preview that shows the effect of processing parameters, mirror vibration, poor implementation if DOF preview etc.

I feel the DSLR has really reached the limit of its practical development, from here on the improvements will be slight, on the other hand mirrorless is just revving up. Given a couple of more years, EVFs will be so totally superior to OVFs the argument will be moot, focus systems will be probably faster than DSLRs. And of course no one could sensibly argue that a mirrorless camera does not already offer equivalent image quality potential.

My gut feeling is Canon and Nikon have really left their run too late, it is seriously possible that Sony, Olympus and Fuji etc will eat their lunch in the next few years or at the very least seriously erode their current market dominance.

And yes I have personally commited fully to the mirrorless option for my personal work, and I cannot see my Pro level DSLR and lenses being ever replaced by a new DSLR/ lenses for paid work, the next pro cam I own will be mirrorless for sure.

No doubt there will continue to be a market for DSLRs for certain segments of the serious pro and advanced shooter market but I predict it will be increasingly smaller from now on, and given say 10 years will be of little significance in total commercial terms.
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sandy b
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Four years? Not likely.
In reply to ZOIP, Apr 10, 2013

First, their are only two camera companies that have even posted a profit in the last two years, yup, canon and nikon. They still control north of 75% of the market. You can be pretty much assured they are not asleep at the wheel. They have both introduce mirrorless camera lines. the V1 has better AF than any other mirrorless out there, and the new A has better IQ than any 4/3. As far as being a pro and giving up FF, sorry, nothing is even close to FF in image quality, other than Sony which is using a FF sensor in one of their cameras. Truth be told, no mirrorless (other than Sony) even beats the D7000 at IQ.

Lastly, Nikon and Canon are GROWING market share now, not losing it. Both will ship more dslr than ever this year, same as last year, The dslr market will grow this year to 18+ million.

I do think the mirrorless market will take off and replace consumer dslr eventually. When canon and nikon decide to do it.

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J. Qian
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to BobYIL, Apr 10, 2013

As the sensor technology advances, it's increasingly obvious that this is diminishing need to have "full frame" devices for picture taking by the majority of photographers.

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unknown member
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to alexisgreat, Apr 11, 2013

alexisgreat wrote:

I dont feel bad for Nikon and Canon they have monopolized the market for FAR too long and held back advancement for far too long, but like any dinosaur, they will one day go extinct

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LOL!  Monopoly- MONO= ONE.  Canon and Nikon > 1.  Add in Sony and Pentax and you find that there is no monopoly on SLR's.

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Re: Four years? Not likely.
In reply to sandy b, Apr 11, 2013

sandy b wrote:

First, their are only two camera companies that have even posted a profit in the last two years, yup, canon and nikon. They still control north of 75% of the market. You can be pretty much assured they are not asleep at the wheel. They have both introduce mirrorless camera lines. the V1 has better AF than any other mirrorless out there, and the new A has better IQ than any 4/3. As far as being a pro and giving up FF, sorry, nothing is even close to FF in image quality, other than Sony which is using a FF sensor in one of their cameras. Truth be told, no mirrorless (other than Sony) even beats the D7000 at IQ.

Lastly, Nikon and Canon are GROWING market share now, not losing it. Both will ship more dslr than ever this year, same as last year, The dslr market will grow this year to 18+ million.

I do think the mirrorless market will take off and replace consumer dslr eventually. When canon and nikon decide to do it.

Exactly.  No mirrorless camera is producing a penny of profit.  Not one.  Only Canon and Nikon have profits to show for their sales.  Mirrorless? Not so much.

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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to ZOIP, Apr 11, 2013

ZOIP wrote:

 

My gut feeling is Canon and Nikon have really left their run too late, it is seriously possible that Sony, Olympus and Fuji etc will eat their lunch in the next few years or at the very least seriously erode their current market dominance.

You do realize that only Canon and Nikon make money selling cameras, right?  Fujifilm makes money ONLY because of non photography related businesses.  Their Imaging Solutions division hasnt reported a profit in over 10 years.

Sony is well known to be in serious financial trouble.

Olympus is in even more trouble.  Panasonic?  No profts to report.

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jonrobertp
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to J. Qian, Apr 11, 2013

we need new cams that don't need all the post work for images...stop making half baked cams.

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