Product Cycle of the 5DII

Started Mar 1, 2010 | Discussions
V-Dubs
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Product Cycle of the 5DII
Mar 1, 2010

How long does Canon usually wait between model updates? When do we expect a 5D III?

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Hasselblad100
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 1, 2010

mkII was available Nov/Dec 2008...unless Nikon force Canon's hand then I don't see anything coming for at least 12-18 months...it still sells very well so why change it soon?

1Ds4 will be next and then 5D around 1 year later

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Ross Murphy
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to Hasselblad100, Mar 1, 2010

It was 3 years between the 5D and the MkII, who knows for Mk III, could be a while the Mk II was announced almost a year and a half ago
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kb2zuz
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 1, 2010

5D -> 5D Mk II = 37 months.
5D Mk II -> Present = 17.5 months.

Going by the one set of values (which any statistician will tell you is very bad practice) I'd say you have about 19 or 20 months left to wait--October/November of 2011.

Canon updates the lines that sell like crazy (P&S and Rebels) a lot more frequently than the top of the line that sell fewer units (1Ds.) The 5D Mk II is more popular and selling better than the original 5D did, so I wouldn't be surprised if they step up the next version by a little. That said, the absolute earliest I think one can expect to see a 5D Mk III on the shelves is Dec2010/January2011 but probably even later than that.
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David_C
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3 years would be nornal but........
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 2, 2010

here's my theory.......the 1D3 should have been a 3 year cycle (Spring 2007 to Spring 2010), but the 1D4 came out 6 months early (Fall 2009).....my theory is the 1D4 came out 6 months after Canon announced the "final fix" (Spring 2009) to the 1D3. Giving Canon 6 months to clear out old 1D3 inventory.

So to extend this to the 5D2/5D3.....the normal cycle would be 3 years so Fall 2008 to Fall 2011, but Canon will be announcing the "final film firmware" upgrade to the 5D2 Spring 2010, so I am looking for the 5D3 to come out the earliest Fall 2010 the latest Spring 2011...in other words 1 year to 6 months before the 3 year cycle is up. Canon has recently dropped the price on the 5D2 $200 US. Canon fixes the 5D2 firmware, then clears out 5D2 inventory, then new 5D3 Fall 2010.

Especially if Nikon comes out with the rumored D800 18mp FF, pro AF, 8 FPS, full video, etc, etc of the D700 Summer 2010.

Just by guess.

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Sal Baker
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 2, 2010

Canon is just announcing new features for the 5DII which take the camera to a new level for pro video use. I don't think they have ever added so many new features to a DSLR that's over a year old. I think this model will be around for a long time...

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=34678263

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DotCom Editor
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Covered to death, but read this anyway
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 2, 2010

Here are all the DSLR launch dates. Just do the math...

BY DATE

D30 – 17 May 2000
1D – 25 Sept. 2001
D60 – 22 Feb. 2002
1Ds – 24 Sept. 2002
10D – Feb. 27 2003
300D / Rebel - 20 Aug. 2003
1D Mark II – 29 Jan. 2004
20D – 19 Aug. 2004
1Ds Mark II – 21 Sept. 2004
350D / Rebel XT – 17 Feb. 2005
20Da – 1 June 2005
1D Mark IIN – 22 Aug. 2005
5D – 22 Aug. 2005
30D – 21 Feb. 2006
400D / Rebel XTi – 24 Aug. 2006
1D Mark III - 21 Feb. 2007
1Ds Mark III - 20 Aug. 2007
450D / Rebel XSi - 23 Jan. 2008
1000D / Rebel XS - 8 July 2008
40D - 20 Aug. 2007
50D - 26 Aug. 2008
5D Mark II - 17 Sept. 2008
500D / Rebel T1i - 25 March 2009
7D - 1 Sept. 2009
1D Mark IV – 20 Oct. 2009
550D / Rebel T2i – 8 Feb. 2010
1Ds Mark IV - ???

BY PRODUCT GROUP

1D – 25 Sept. 2001
1D Mark II – 29 Jan. 2004
1D Mark IIN – 22 Aug. 2005
1D Mark III - 21 Feb. 2007
1D Mark IV – 20 Oct. 2009

1Ds – 24 Sept. 2002
1Ds Mark II – 21 Sept. 2004
1Ds Mark III - 20 Aug. 2007
1Ds Mark IV - ???

5D – 22 Aug. 2005
5D Mark II - 17 Sept. 2008

D30 – 17 May 2000
D60 – 22 Feb. 2002
10D – Feb. 27 2003
20D – 19 Aug. 2004
20Da – 1 June 2005
30D – 21 Feb. 2006
40D - 20 Aug. 2007
50D - 26 Aug. 2008

7D - 1 Sept. 2009

300D / Rebel - 20 Aug. 2003
350D / Rebel XT – 17 Feb. 2005
400D / Rebel XTi – 24 Aug. 2006
450D / Rebel XSi - 23 Jan. 2008
1000D / Rebel XS - 8 July 2008
500D / Rebel T1i - 25 March 2009
550D / Rebel T2i – 8 Feb. 2010

end

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patrick c tom
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to Sal Baker, Mar 2, 2010

Sal Baker wrote:

Canon is just announcing new features for the 5DII which take the camera to a new level for pro video use. I don't think they have ever added so many new features to a DSLR that's over a year old. I think this model will be around for a long time...

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=34678263

Sal

I think it will be difficult to tell what Canon will do. I think Canon has a leg up on Nikon especially with video shooting dslr users market, I think they realize they can't rest, and play a wait and see market. My guess is they will release six months after 1ds mk4 is released it will have similar mp rate as 1dsmk4 and will have flip screen to make it video shooting friendly and other feature to make it more video shooting friendly. Expanding the market of the dslr to pro and semi pro video is perfect for eos system as it will sell all those money making L lenses as well.
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ihv
ihv
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Re: 3 years would be nornal but........
In reply to David_C, Mar 2, 2010

I think the the case with the 1D MK3 was an exception. After the Nikon's announcement they couldn't wait any longer.

The 5D MK2, on the other hand, is a solid performer. As of now I don't see any competition - D700 and 5D MK2 are targeted a bit differently as I see it. After the FM update, my guess is on full 3 years cycle.

Your specs about the hypothetical D800 look more like a Nikon D4 to me. As Nikon just had the update to its pro model, I think it will be out no earlier than for Photokina this year, PMA 2011 sounds even more plausible to me.

David_C wrote:

here's my theory.......the 1D3 should have been a 3 year cycle (Spring 2007 to Spring 2010), but the 1D4 came out 6 months early (Fall 2009).....my theory is the 1D4 came out 6 months after Canon announced the "final fix" (Spring 2009) to the 1D3. Giving Canon 6 months to clear out old 1D3 inventory.

So to extend this to the 5D2/5D3.....the normal cycle would be 3 years so Fall 2008 to Fall 2011, but Canon will be announcing the "final film firmware" upgrade to the 5D2 Spring 2010, so I am looking for the 5D3 to come out the earliest Fall 2010 the latest Spring 2011...in other words 1 year to 6 months before the 3 year cycle is up. Canon has recently dropped the price on the 5D2 $200 US. Canon fixes the 5D2 firmware, then clears out 5D2 inventory, then new 5D3 Fall 2010.

Especially if Nikon comes out with the rumored D800 18mp FF, pro AF, 8 FPS, full video, etc, etc of the D700 Summer 2010.

Just by guess.

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RedFox88
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previous history is no indicator of future performance
In reply to DotCom Editor, Mar 2, 2010

previous history is no indicator of future performance. Ever hear that, or similar wording, for investments? It holds true for cameras.

What Canon did 7 years ago when dSLR competition was weak should not be looked at in today's marketplace. And those that say Canon's pro models are on a 3 year cycle are not looking at the history of their releases. Only the 1D2 to 1D3 and 1Ds2 to 1Ds3 had 3 years between them. Other releases have been 2.5 or 2 years.

And there was a fairly decent rumor on canonrumors.com a few weeks ago that Canon moved their 5D3 release up 6 months. But was that up to 2.5 years or to 2 years? Who knows.

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joger
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 2, 2010

V-Dubs wrote:

How long does Canon usually wait between model updates? When do we expect a 5D III?

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My guess is that a 5D III can be released any time Canon needs to do.

The specs are clear already. As soon as we know the specs of the 1Ds IV we'll know the characteristics of the 5D III - in every respect but the sensor a bit less but only 1/3 the cost.

I'd be very surprised if Canon did this before they really have to - even if Nikon releases a D800 with 18MP and 8fps there would be absolutely no reason to fight against that - 21 > > 18 and not everyone needs 8fps and not everyone is satisfied with the lenses from Nikon (still missing a TS-E 17 equivalent) and not everyone is keen on faster AF (especially with the TS-E 17 / 24 / 45 / 90)

I could assume that we might see the 5D II even longer then 3 years and a 3D with a bit higher price in parallel.

The 5D II is so good that a replacement must be incredible good to motivate 5D II buyers for a replacement. A 3D would be a nice step to sell a camera for a much higher price and keep the market open for the 5D III a bit later.

Only educated guess

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lbfd
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 2, 2010

Rules in product life are not yet fixed.

But it seems that the upper-end of product (1Dx and 5D) is on a 3 years cycle whereas the lower-end slr are around just one year (the rebel).

Nikon is sensible by making a 2+1year cycle : two years for the regular and one more year with the s version. (Canon did only one time this with the 1D mk IIn)

The product life is also driven by the competitors. I believe the sales of the 1dx mk III was not superb : the 1D mk III suffer (because of the rumoured AF issue) with the D3 and the 1Ds mk III suffer also because of... the 5D mk II (maybe canon should have done a 1Ds mkIIIn with at least the same sensor of the 5D).

Canon was "in a hurry" to launch earlier the 1D mk IV. It was launch 6 month before the 3 years.

Because of the similarities between the 1D and the 1Ds on the same mk (almost all the same but the sensor). The 1Ds usually comes around 6 month after the 1D. So lot of people are waiting for it now (even if it is a 8 000$ body).

So my 1$ guessing is that unless Nikon will launch now a D700s or D800 with the 24Mpix of the D3x, canon will only launch a 5D mkIII around one year after the 1Ds mk IV.
So propbably not before april-june 2011

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joger
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Re: Product Cycle of the 5DII
In reply to lbfd, Mar 3, 2010

lbfd wrote:

So my 1$ guessing is that unless Nikon will launch now a D700s or D800 with the 24Mpix of the D3x, canon will only launch a 5D mkIII around one year after the 1Ds mk IV.
So propbably not before april-june 2011

reading teal leaves is always a nice profession

I guess you're about right with your guess.

The pre-announcement of the video features from the 5D II now leaves some space for a major announcement some one to two months later to get more attention while maintaining a lot of noise in the market for the brand.

You can't offer a firmware update and for an old model and pretend the old and the new are both the best - can you?

Canon will answer a new Nikon for the whiners that feel bad as soon as Nikon catches a bit up

IMHO the 5D II is so good that even no D700s or D800 will change the game I bet it will be in the 4 k EUR / USD range and as such too expensive for many users. Having said that - a 5D III or 3D might be in the same price league.

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julienA
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With the economic downturn and the saturation of DSLR market growth
In reply to V-Dubs, Mar 3, 2010

The manufacturers go back on the three year cycle they used to have with film cameras. So expect a 5dIII end 2011.

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RedFox88
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except dSLRs have continued to grow..
In reply to julienA, Mar 3, 2010

JulienA wrote:

The manufacturers go back on the three year cycle they used to have with film cameras. So expect a 5dIII end 2011.

Except dSLRs sales have continued to grow through this global recession because their buyers are ones that have more free cash to spend. Plus there's a rumor at Canonrumors.com that Canon has moved the 5D3 up 6 months but is that up from 3 years or 2.5 years? Who knows.

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