Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?

Started Nov 19, 2009 | Discussions
jeff-c
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Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?
Nov 19, 2009

This chart was shown at the D3s launch event in Beijing.

It shows the D3 has been out selling Canon's 1D Mk III and 1Ds Mk III combined before D3X was available, and since the D3X introduction Nikon has been getting 70-80% market share in the professional market.

There is a note saying the data is from Nikon's own survey data. When being asked about the source the data later on in Q&A session, Nikon officials claim the data is compiled by Nikon based on third party data.

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rhlpetrus
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simlalr info from D3s preview
In reply to jeff-c, Nov 19, 2009

That they have about 70% of high-end market now, likely from same chart.

But, good grief, can't Nikon hire a decent info display specialist? A perspective bar graph is anatema for anyone that knows anything about displaying quantitative info using graphs.

Interesting to see how the D3x sells well, against the common sense cry here that the price is too high.
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bikinchris
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Applause for Nikon
In reply to rhlpetrus, Nov 19, 2009

High end camera don't sell that well to begin with, but they are so very visible. Of course, it would take years for Nikon to show up on the sidelines with more black lenses than white, since that tide was going against them for so long. But this turn around is remarkable.

I am sure the D3s will keep sports shooters from switching back against a very good 1DMKIV body. Now Nikon needs to be ready for what is probably going to be a very good 1DsMKIV body to keep the lead.

I am sure the D700 is holding it's own, but the Nikon line up needs a 5DMKII killer in the D700X.
Go Nikon!

The same technology used on the D3s would be great for the D300s replacement also.
Go Nikon!
It seems you can't go wrong with Nikon.
Go Nikon!
Lets see them work on the lenses now!

rhlpetrus wrote:

That they have about 70% of high-end market now, likely from same chart.

But, good grief, can't Nikon hire a decent info display specialist? A perspective bar graph is anatema for anyone that knows anything about displaying quantitative info using graphs.

Interesting to see how the D3x sells well, against the common sense cry here that the price is too high.
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That cry wasn't from people who make money with that kind of camera. It was from people who just WANT it cheaper.

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Mel
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Re: simlalr info from D3s preview
In reply to rhlpetrus, Nov 19, 2009

Canon themselves could make a statment that Nikon is out selling them and there would still be a few here who would claim Nikon is forever behind.

This is a very good share though Jeff.

And if the numbers from sites such as B&H and Amazon, Nikon Rumors and numerous pro photogs don't convince people that Nikon is "at the very least" comfortably "in the game". Then nothing will and the words from a good friend who once said, "people do not want to know the truth if it differs from what they believe". Will forever ring true.

BTW, it was also recently shown that the D90 leads all dslr sales.
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bikinchris
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Re: simlalr info from D3s preview
In reply to Mel, Nov 19, 2009

Mel wrote:

Canon themselves could make a statment that Nikon is out selling them and there would still be a few here who would claim Nikon is forever behind.

This is a very good share though Jeff.

And if the numbers from sites such as B&H and Amazon, Nikon Rumors and numerous pro photogs don't convince people that Nikon is "at the very least" comfortably "in the game". Then nothing will and the words from a good friend who once said, "people do not want to know the truth if it differs from what they believe". Will forever ring true.

BTW, it was also recently shown that the D90 leads all dslr sales.
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fsmith
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Re: simlalr info from D3s preview
In reply to Mel, Nov 19, 2009

I think with the 1DmkIII problems, many in the Canon camp have been holding out for the next round. You can see this at all the events with those whites lenses on older bodies. I'm hoping for constant leap-frogging to keep both manufacturers on their toes!

Fran

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Mel
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Deep Chris, deep :~)
In reply to bikinchris, Nov 19, 2009
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Thom Hogan
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Re: Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?
In reply to jeff-c, Nov 19, 2009

jeff-c wrote:

This chart was shown at the D3s launch event in Beijing.

Of course this chart is meaningless.

It shows the D3 has been out selling Canon's 1D Mk III and 1Ds Mk III combined before D3X was available,

Actually, no, it does not "show" that, it only "suggests" that. Imagine for a moment what happens to the overall sales if 4/2008, 6/2008, and 8/2008 were mongo sales months with 3x the sales of the other months in that year. That would completely change the "market share" numbers. Without actual volume information, such a time chart is potentially misleading. Consider also what it would say if pro sales peaked in 11/2007 and declined on a straight line to half that by 7/2009.

There is a note saying the data is from Nikon's own survey data. When being asked about the source the data later on in Q&A session, Nikon officials claim the data is compiled by Nikon based on third party data.

Which is another problem. We don't actually know the source or the geographical area it covers. Most "third party data" sources would be retail store numbers. But this wouldn't cover direct sales (yes, I know NikonUSA does large volume sales through local dealers, but does Canon, and do both of them do that outside the US?).

And while Nikon appears to be proud of their pro camera numbers, the fact that they still trail Canon slightly overall in DSLR units sold would then indicate Nikon might not be fairing so well at the lower end, eh? (And that number is testable, because it is based upon CIPA and formal financial filings.)

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Mel
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Re: Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?
In reply to Thom Hogan, Nov 19, 2009

It sure would nice to have "actual numbers" then Thom because a few places (Nikon Rumors of late), have indicated that Nikon has the lead in overall DSLR sales with the D90. If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying Nikon does not lead in DSLR sales.

Also, would you agree then with what I have called hype, about "Nikon being seriously behind and about to go under", I believe the statement was? That in fact there is more truth to those claims than not?
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rhlpetrus
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Sorry, that doesn't make sense in real world
In reply to Thom Hogan, Nov 19, 2009

Thom Hogan wrote:

jeff-c wrote:

This chart was shown at the D3s launch event in Beijing.

Of course this chart is meaningless.

It shows the D3 has been out selling Canon's 1D Mk III and 1Ds Mk III combined before D3X was available,

Actually, no, it does not "show" that, it only "suggests" that. Imagine for a moment what happens to the overall sales if 4/2008, 6/2008, and 8/2008 were mongo sales months with 3x the sales of the other months in that year. That would completely change the "market share" numbers. Without actual volume information, such a time chart is potentially misleading. Consider also what it would say if pro sales peaked in 11/2007 and declined on a straight line to half that by 7/2009.

Thom, I follow your site and psost here, but, sorry, not probable given overall stability of markets.

There are seasonal trends, but not zig-zag behavior as needed for that to be true. 4/2008 high, 5/2008 low, 6 high, 7 low, 8 high, low, low, low ...

Moreover, Nikon is now predicting sales around 3,55 millior for current year, not an indication they are doing too poorly. Even if they have lost some share at the bottom, to do well in the larger picture would mean these trends of high-end sales is holding in absolute numbers as well.

The charts tell the truth in this case.

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ScottMac
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Re: Sorry, that doesn't make sense in real world
In reply to rhlpetrus, Nov 19, 2009

That chart looks odd to me. I have a friend who was a leading pro in Rio Brazil, he got an agent and moved to nyc where is pretty big in fashion. When he got here he started shooting with H2 and Leaf MF. He told me no one in Brazil shoots MF, they all shoot 35mm and the vast majority, he actually said everyone, shoots Canon, not Nikon. So how are the percentages in this chart possible? I have seen pros, and pro rental equipment in nyc for some time now and it is predominantly Canon also.

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zoooming
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Re: Sorry, that doesn't make sense in real world
In reply to ScottMac, Nov 19, 2009

I agree. One chart with little other info to support the stats. Where were the sales - what countries? For a company so involved in technology you'd think Nikon would place a little more emphasis on presentation than that antiquated looking bar chart.

I use Canon gear but I don't 'bag' Nikon like others on this forum. Gear is gear to me and if something does not suit me I'll look elsewhere to find something that does.

I guess we all believe what we read in the newspapers too?

Zoooming

ScottMac wrote:

That chart looks odd to me. I have a friend who was a leading pro in Rio Brazil, he got an agent and moved to nyc where is pretty big in fashion. When he got here he started shooting with H2 and Leaf MF. He told me no one in Brazil shoots MF, they all shoot 35mm and the vast majority, he actually said everyone, shoots Canon, not Nikon. So how are the percentages in this chart possible? I have seen pros, and pro rental equipment in nyc for some time now and it is predominantly Canon also.

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noirdesir
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Re: Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?
In reply to Thom Hogan, Nov 19, 2009

Thom Hogan wrote:

Of course this chart is meaningless.

It is meaningless overall because it does not say which market is looked at. It is far from meaningless for the market it represents.

It shows the D3 has been out selling Canon's 1D Mk III and 1Ds Mk III combined before D3X was available,

Actually, no, it does not "show" that, it only "suggests" that. Imagine for a moment what happens to the overall sales if 4/2008, 6/2008, and 8/2008 were mongo sales months with 3x the sales of the other months in that year.

Now, Thom, tell me how likely that is? If you average all months you get an average market share. If you then assume a variability for the monthly total sales fluctuations you get a probability band around that average. And there probably is a 1% chance that Canon was ahead.

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tyb
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Re: Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?
In reply to jeff-c, Nov 19, 2009

And why is this important?

A more important question is the market large enough at the high end for both to continue to nvest and in really better high end. Deveopment in this areas very expensive and if they don't have enough market or a good watefall strategy to the higher volume segments then who cares who has the larger market share both could be busted from a business point of view.

I could care less if my camera is outselling the camera Mr Jones has next door, or the color of my lens either.

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Thom Hogan
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Re: Sorry, that doesn't make sense in real world
In reply to rhlpetrus, Nov 19, 2009

rhlpetrus wrote:

Thom, I follow your site and psost here, but, sorry, not probable given overall stability of markets.

There are seasonal trends, but not zig-zag behavior as needed for that to be true. 4/2008 high, 5/2008 low, 6 high, 7 low, 8 high, low, low, low ...

Actually, pro body sales don't follow the same cyclical pattern as do consumer sales. There are definite peaks and valleys, and they're not exactly where you'd expect them to be. I'll give you one simple, small example: government sales. Know when the US government year ends? Know how many POs for pro bodies happen in that last month? Bottom line: I would not predict that overall pro body sales are as stable month to month as consumer sales, nor does it follow the same pattern.

Moreover, Nikon is now predicting sales around 3,55 millior for current year, not an indication they are doing too poorly.

I didn't say they were doing poorly, only that I believe that they have lost the market share lead. Nikon's current project is to finish their fiscal year (ends Mar 2010) with a year-long 35% share, which is down from Nikon's peak. Moreover, that reflects a pickup in sales in the second half of the year. I'll have to go back and look at the last Canon numbers again, but I don't think they fell below 35%. Indeed, I seem to remember 37% as their current number, though with my sickness I have to admit my head isn't always thinking clearly at the moment.

The charts tell the truth in this case.

And what truth would that be?

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noirdesir
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5DII and D700 impact not very pronounced
In reply to jeff-c, Nov 19, 2009

D3 market share hardly goes down with the introduction of the D700 (it goes down when the D3x is introduced but that is pretty certain only due to the overall market increase with the D3x sales added).

1DsIII market share only really goes down with the intro of the D3x.

If these numbers are somewhat accurate and globally representative than the notion that the D700 significantly lowered the D3 sales and that the 5DII ate the 1DsIII's lunch isn't really reflected in reality.

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rhlpetrus
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Re: Sorry, that doesn't make sense in real world
In reply to Thom Hogan, Nov 19, 2009

Thom Hogan wrote:

rhlpetrus wrote:

Thom, I follow your site and psost here, but, sorry, not probable given overall stability of markets.

There are seasonal trends, but not zig-zag behavior as needed for that to be true. 4/2008 high, 5/2008 low, 6 high, 7 low, 8 high, low, low, low ...

Actually, pro body sales don't follow the same cyclical pattern as do consumer sales. There are definite peaks and valleys, and they're not exactly where you'd expect them to be. I'll give you one simple, small example: government sales. Know when the US government year ends? Know how many POs for pro bodies happen in that last month? Bottom line: I would not predict that overall pro body sales are as stable month to month as consumer sales, nor does it follow the same pattern.

I didn't say they follow any pattern, only it's unlikely that Canon or Nikon would benefit especially from any patterns, just statistics of large numbers (and even a number like 50K bodies sold is, statistically, a large number and very unlikely to show wild fluctuations unless a new event is involved).

Moreover, Nikon is now predicting sales around 3,55 millior for current year, not an indication they are doing too poorly.

I didn't say they were doing poorly, only that I believe that they have lost the market share lead. Nikon's current project is to finish their fiscal year (ends Mar 2010) with a year-long 35% share, which is down from Nikon's peak. Moreover, that reflects a pickup in sales in the second half of the year. I'll have to go back and look at the last Canon numbers again, but I don't think they fell below 35%. Indeed, I seem to remember 37% as their current number, though with my sickness I have to admit my head isn't always thinking clearly at the moment.

Oops, hope you get better ...

The charts tell the truth in this case.

And what truth would that be?

For me, very clear, if the graph represents actual sales's shares: Nikon has outsold Canon since late 2007 in the high-end bracket by a good margin, and that lead increased and stabilized since the D3x was released.

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pixelpepper
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Some other observations
In reply to jeff-c, Nov 19, 2009

Apart from the Nikon vs Canon angle, which I don't want to get into, there are som other things interesting in this chart, to whit, the issue of sales volumes of the high end products.

What stands out is that the $8k high res models sell in the same volume as the PJ models. Canon sells as many 1DsIII's as it does 1DIII's and Nikon sells as many D3x's as it does D3's. Nikon's marketing people would have to have been brain dead to sell the D3x for any less than $8k - so much for all the amateur pundits here.

Secondly, there was no noticeable reduction in D3 sales when the D700 was released.

Cleealy, Nikon should be able to release A D700x without hammering sales of the D3x.
Seems they know their market better than we do.

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M Lammerse
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Re: Nikon's pro bodies outsell Canon's?
In reply to jeff-c, Nov 19, 2009

Mmm :-),

It is true about that Nikon uses third party data I know from one person in wholesale retail business in Japan that they keep close track of the sellings and they do a lot of surveys with their customers, these figures are handed back to Nikon. Nikon itself uses also many market research companies for doing (online) surveys.

Besides that the D3 was the reporter camera to have when it was launched ir was also with the help of Canon itself (due to poor after sales/services in relation to the focus problems that their model was suffering from) that it became so very popular.

Michel

jeff-c wrote:

This chart was shown at the D3s launch event in Beijing.

It shows the D3 has been out selling Canon's 1D Mk III and 1Ds Mk III combined before D3X was available, and since the D3X introduction Nikon has been getting 70-80% market share in the professional market.

There is a note saying the data is from Nikon's own survey data. When being asked about the source the data later on in Q&A session, Nikon officials claim the data is compiled by Nikon based on third party data.

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rhlpetrus
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Re: Sorry, that doesn't make sense in real world
In reply to ScottMac, Nov 19, 2009

Brazil is very tiny market, a D3 costs more than 10,000 USD here, a Hassy is out of question (so your friend's experience).

Given that 3 years ago there were only white lenses in any sport and most PJ's situations and that now that is about split in half (beijing Olympics was an example) and has, in some cases (indoors sports), moved in Nikon's favor, I'd say the graph makes sense.

ScottMac wrote:

That chart looks odd to me. I have a friend who was a leading pro in Rio Brazil, he got an agent and moved to nyc where is pretty big in fashion. When he got here he started shooting with H2 and Leaf MF. He told me no one in Brazil shoots MF, they all shoot 35mm and the vast majority, he actually said everyone, shoots Canon, not Nikon. So how are the percentages in this chart possible? I have seen pros, and pro rental equipment in nyc for some time now and it is predominantly Canon also.

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