D3x announcement on 1st July

Started Jun 13, 2008 | Discussions
Hardnose
Contributing MemberPosts: 543
Like?
D3x announcement on 1st July
Jun 13, 2008

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

M Lammerse
Forum ProPosts: 10,803
Like?
Re: D3x announcement on 1st July
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 13, 2008

Oh boy
Really bad I'm not allowed to gamble and that i'm under kyms

Michel

P.S. dont mix up canon and nikon...

Hardnose wrote:

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my
source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

-- hide signature --

~ Light is eveything ~

EURO CUP
~ Holland - Italia 3-0 (Italia?....bai bai) ~
~ Holland - France 4-1 (France?....bai bai) ~
1 Mission 1 Nation we are the Orange Sensation

http://www.fotopropaganda.com
http://www.pbase.com/photopropaganda

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
LarryK
Senior MemberPosts: 1,947Gear list
Like?
Re: D3x announcement on 1st July
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 13, 2008

Hardnose wrote:

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my
source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

Cash in hand, I'll take one each.

Larry

 LarryK's gear list:LarryK's gear list
RX100 III
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
thomas2279
Forum ProPosts: 10,876
Like?
Re: D3x announcement on 1st July
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 13, 2008

You never know...
--

My Pictures & Web Site: http://www.dltp.co.uk

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Andre Bomhof
Veteran MemberPosts: 4,193
Like?
Re: D3x announcement on 1st July
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 13, 2008

Hardnose wrote:

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

Hopefully on the 3rd of July, my birthday!

Cheers,

André

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Meggy
Regular MemberPosts: 385
Like?
Re: D3x announcement on 1st July
In reply to thomas2279, Jun 13, 2008

thomas2279 wrote:

You never know...

Er, you will after the 1st of July.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
ovrebekk
Veteran MemberPosts: 4,247
Like?
Re: D3x announcement on 1st July
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 13, 2008

Hardnose wrote:

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my
source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

I really hope you are right about this. I don't think im the only one waiting for a small FF camera from Nikon. I didn't expect them to increase the resolution though, but i guess it might be wise when Canon releases their 5D-succesor.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
michaeladawson
Veteran MemberPosts: 7,430Gear list
Like?
Not clear
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 14, 2008

Hardnose wrote:

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my
source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

It's not clear from your post whether there are 3 Nikons or 2 Nikons in your rumor.

There's the D3x obviously.

But then you say a "Canon 5D beater" and you make some allusion to beating any Canon 3D that surfaces. Are there rumors of a Canon 3D?

Canon will be coming out with a 5D successor, let's call it a 5D MkII. Nikon needs to match or better this 5D MkII, not the 5D.

-- hide signature --

Mike Dawson

 michaeladawson's gear list:michaeladawson's gear list
Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX3 Nikon D200 Nikon D4 Nikon D800E Nikon AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR +17 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Erciro
Senior MemberPosts: 1,679Gear list
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to michaeladawson, Jun 14, 2008

michaeladawson wrote:

Hardnose wrote:

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my
source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

It's not clear from your post whether there are 3 Nikons or 2 Nikons
in your rumor.

There's the D3x obviously.

But then you say a "Canon 5D beater" and you make some allusion to
beating any Canon 3D that surfaces. Are there rumors of a Canon 3D?

Canon will be coming out with a 5D successor, let's call it a 5D
MkII. Nikon needs to match or better this 5D MkII, not the 5D.

Many Canon users believe the 5D successor will be called 3D not 5D Mk. II.
--
Ahmet

 Erciro's gear list:Erciro's gear list
Nikon Coolpix 3100 Nikon Coolpix P50 Canon PowerShot SD780 IS Nikon D200 Nikon D300 +8 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
bobn2
Forum ProPosts: 27,838
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to michaeladawson, Jun 14, 2008

michaeladawson wrote:

Hardnose wrote:

many rumours are circling in pro circles here in London. I trust my
source.

There's also a 'Canon 5D' beater, a smaller 16mp Nikon - to trump any
Canon 3D that surfaces before Photokina.

It's not clear from your post whether there are 3 Nikons or 2 Nikons
in your rumor.

There's the D3x obviously.

But then you say a "Canon 5D beater" and you make some allusion to
beating any Canon 3D that surfaces. Are there rumors of a Canon 3D?

Canon will be coming out with a 5D successor, let's call it a 5D
MkII. Nikon needs to match or better this 5D MkII, not the 5D.

-- hide signature --

Mike Dawson

I'm no longer sure that Canon will come out with a '5D successor', or that the 'D10' or whatever will compete with an update of the 5D.
Some observations:

the 5D's never been a great seller. The production volume is apparently 7000/month, which compares with 12000/month for the D3 and 60000/month for the D300.

Canon's FF sales are less than 5% of their total sales - extrapolating from published sales volumes, that indicates something like 10500/month - thus the D3 rocketed Nikon from nowhere to #1 in the 'FF market'. If there was truly a 'FF' market, and it was cost defined, then there would be no way Nikon could leapfrog Canon with a higher price product. I think markets are defined primarily by use. The D3 is successful because it addresses a need for a high speed/high ISO camera for sports PJ's and others with similar requirements. The FX sensor is an consequence of design to meet thos requirements, not a market defining feature. The D3x will address a requirement in the studio/landscape/magazine MF replacement, which requires high enough resolution and a large enough sensor to make very large images. Canon defined that market with the 1Ds line, now Nikon will move in too.

So, on to the 'D10'. Nikon have shown the effectiveness of a two pronged approach with the D3/D300. A pro camera and a 'lo-pro', pretty much the same feature set, just using a commodity sensor that leaves it a bit short. What would be the lo-pro version of the D3x? It can't be a crop camera, since that would have really poor IQ at the kind of magnifications for which the D3x is designed. Just like the D300, it would need about the same resolution as the D3x, so it seems that we're left with essentially a D300, fitted with the already announced Sony 24.8 MPix sensor. That would give 12 bit native, 14 bit kludged (1.25fps) capture like the D300, and it would be able to use the current D300 platform without electronic modification (of course, the mechanicals would need to be modified to fit in an FX sensor/shutter/VF).

Against that, the D3x will most likely have an uprezzed version of the D3 sensor, which will give about 1/2 stop better native sensor efficiency than the Sony sensor, plus real 14 bit, plus a 10Mpix/9FPS DX crop mode. Along with the Sendai build quality, that might be enough to justify a price difference of a couple of thousand dollars. Also, this D10, as a 4.5fps camera, would be no threat to the D3.

Back to Canon. A straightforward 5D replacement would be in the middle of nowhere, just like the 5D. More likely for them is a dual release (let's call it a 3D and 3Ds), a 10-12 MPix, APS-H '1D lite' to take on the D300 and a 20-21MPix, FF '1Ds lite' to take on the D10.
--
Bob

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
rhlpetrus
Forum ProPosts: 22,874Gear list
Like?
3D and 6D rumor
In reply to bobn2, Jun 14, 2008

Thre was rumor in the Canon forum about a 3D and a 6D, one at 14-16MP other around 21MP, both compacts FF, one at 2,000, other at 3-4,000.

From what you're saying, since the market for FF, at least at this point, is not that large, and Canon would be essentialy abandoning the semi-pro crop market for a full FF line.

Seem unlikely but, who knows, a 6D 16MP launched at 2,000, soon at 1,800, direct competiton for the semi-pro market where the D300 sits, better high ISO, better body than 5D, could make sense, no?

-- hide signature --
 rhlpetrus's gear list:rhlpetrus's gear list
Nikon D7000 Nikon 1 V1 Nikon AF-S DX Nikkor 12-24mm f/4G ED-IF Nikon AF Nikkor 35mm f/2D Nikon AF-S Nikkor 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6G VR +3 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
fiinnikon
Contributing MemberPosts: 636
Like?
someone told me he is testing the D3x, today
In reply to rhlpetrus, Jun 14, 2008

I'm on vacation in Singapore and was in this camera shop with my D3 and there was this guy telling me he is currently testing the D3X and will be reporting the results to Nikon in a week or a month and he says it will be out end of the year. He says the D3x is better than the D3 in IQ and the ISO is even higher and better than the D3. He also mentions that he is testing some digital viewer screen that attach to the view finder from Nikon. I ask him about the D300 FX, but he said he don't use small camera body.

I also asked him how many frames can the D3x shoot in 24mp per second, he was counting his fingers and said 9 frames.( hard to believe)

He was also speaking loudly in the shop that canon sucks and canon only make copying machine, ..... I tried to end our conversation and get out of the shop.

I have this feeling the D3x will be lot better than the D3 but for a price ... as Nikon has impressed us with all this new cameras and lenses this year. I will buy the D3x later as the D3 is good enough for a while, for now I want to get the 200 F2 first.

I need to get a canon to print more money to get Nikon, just kidding.

-- hide signature --
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Jeff Folkins
Contributing MemberPosts: 851
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to bobn2, Jun 14, 2008

Bob

Most of what you wrote makes a lot of sense. However I am confused about why you don't address option of a D3 sensor in a D300 featured body (though obviously the body would have to be redesigned). This would surely be the "eqvuivalent" of the 5D but of course much much better. Sure, this would take a bite out of some D3 sales but so what.
Jeff

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Thom Hogan
Forum ProPosts: 13,659
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to bobn2, Jun 14, 2008

bobn2 wrote:

I'm no longer sure that Canon will come out with a '5D successor',

They will, because they'll have to. (more on that in a moment)

[unsure] that the 'D10' or whatever will compete with an update of the 5D.

That statement is probably more likely.

the 5D's never been a great seller. The production volume is
apparently 7000/month, which compares with 12000/month for the D3 and
60000/month for the D300.

Be careful of misapplying numbers. The 5D is at the tail end of a three year career. There's at least 150k of them out there, perhaps as many as 250k. Thus, the demand for a 5D at the moment is slack. End of cycle. Demand fulfilled. The opposite is true of the D3. Start of cycle. Demand barely satisfied. Hard to compare those two things.

Canon's FF sales are less than 5% of their total sales -
extrapolating from published sales volumes, that indicates something
like 10500/month - thus the D3 rocketed Nikon from nowhere to #1 in
the 'FF market'.

Are you including the 1D in there? Even though it isn't 35FF, I think you need to. Call it "larger sensor market." However, note what happened in DSLRs. Nikon went and stayed DX for eight years. During five of those years, Canon owned the larger sensor market but was progressively losing their strangle hold on the smaller sensor market. No matter, this kept margins relatively high. Now Nikon puts the pressure on the larger sensor market at almost the same time Canon decides to put more emphasis on the smaller sensor market. Ironically, Nikon was always dinged for "reacting too slow" to changing demand, but it seems that Canon is now in that same position. I'm very suspicious of Canon's strategy at the moment. It seems a little too much centered on overall market share at the expense of almost anything else. And, of course, if Nikon is successful in pulling back the larger sensor market share, this hurts Canon in the products that were generating the biggest profit margin.

I think markets are defined primarily by use.

And by legacy audience. Both Nikon and Canon have huge followings, some of which still haven't converted to digital, believe it or not (the D3 moved a lot of those off the fence, though). Nikon is currently playing to Unmet Demand. Three FX bodies across a full specification and price range will all do well for awhile, as they all play to that legacy audience. Canon's current push at the low-end doesn't really play to the legacy audience, but seems to be an attempt to shore up erosion (and almost comes too late).

What would be the lo-pro version of the D3x?

What was tested was 16mp and 18mp.

Against that, the D3x will most likely have an uprezzed version of
the D3 sensor, which will give about 1/2 stop better native sensor
efficiency than the Sony sensor, plus real 14 bit, plus a 10Mpix/9FPS
DX crop mode.

DX high speed, 5:4 crop, 14-bit, otherwise the same as the Sony sensor I think.

So, why did I say Canon has to do a 5D replacement? Because I think Nikon's three FX cameras are going to do quite well, and the same thing that we had in the Nikon camp when Canon was iterating large sensor cameras is going to now happen in the Canon camp. You can see it brewing already: "I'm going to switch. The D3 is better than the 1DIII. The D3x has more resolution than the 1DsIII. The D10 or whatever the name turns out to be has more resolution than the 5D. Nikon's wides are better."

-- hide signature --

Thom Hogan
author, Complete Guides to Nikon bodies (18 and counting)
http://www.bythom.com

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
bobn2
Forum ProPosts: 27,838
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to Jeff Folkins, Jun 14, 2008

Jeff Folkins wrote:

Bob
Most of what you wrote makes a lot of sense. However I am confused
about why you don't address option of a D3 sensor in a D300 featured
body (though obviously the body would have to be redesigned). This
would surely be the "eqvuivalent" of the 5D but of course much much
better. Sure, this would take a bite out of some D3 sales but so
what.
Jeff

For a few reasons.

i) The D300 is so close to the D3 in 'features' that a D3 sensor in a D300 featured body would really be a compact D3 (1 fps less, 1 less CF slot, no artificial horizon are the only missing features). I don't see Nikon selling a compact and cut price D3 against the D3.

ii) The D3 sensor needs a completely different front end electronics set up to the D300, and that front end electronics (six dual channel AFE chips) is expensive. I can't see that being afforded in a $3000 FF camera (it's contribution to final retail price is about $750).

iii) The Sony chipped low end and Nikon chipped high end can be accommodated with no alteration at all in the basic camera platforms of the D3 and D300. That seems to be the least resistance way to go (and that's the way Nikon have always operated - produce a platform and ring the changes). The Nikon chipped D300 requires a substantially different platform from the Sony chipped one.

iv) The 5D sells a lot less than the D3. It's not clear that a compact 12MPix FF would generate a lot of new business - it would probably mostly take business from the D3, and that means lost profit margin for Nikon - why would they replace sales of a $5k camera with a $3k+ one, which would cost them very nearly as much to make?

-- hide signature --

Bob

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
bobn2
Forum ProPosts: 27,838
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to Thom Hogan, Jun 14, 2008

Thom Hogan wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

I'm no longer sure that Canon will come out with a '5D successor',

They will, because they'll have to. (more on that in a moment)

Deal with that in a moment.

[unsure] that the 'D10' or whatever will compete with an update of the 5D.

That statement is probably more likely.

the 5D's never been a great seller. The production volume is
apparently 7000/month, which compares with 12000/month for the D3 and
60000/month for the D300.

Be careful of misapplying numbers. The 5D is at the tail end of a
three year career. There's at least 150k of them out there, perhaps
as many as 250k. Thus, the demand for a 5D at the moment is slack.
End of cycle. Demand fulfilled. The opposite is true of the D3. Start
of cycle. Demand barely satisfied. Hard to compare those two things.

I don't think cyclical demand applies in the case of the 5D. It's never had any competition. If it's exhausted the demand for a mid-range pixel count slow FF SLR, then that suggests that the market wasn't big in the first place. 250k is likely as the total run for the 5D, the D300 has outstripped that in five months.

Canon's FF sales are less than 5% of their total sales -
extrapolating from published sales volumes, that indicates something
like 10500/month - thus the D3 rocketed Nikon from nowhere to #1 in
the 'FF market'.

Are you including the 1D in there? Even though it isn't 35FF, I think
you need to.

No I'm not. The 1D is a crop camera.

Call it "larger sensor market." However, note what
happened in DSLRs. Nikon went and stayed DX for eight years. During
five of those years, Canon owned the larger sensor market but was
progressively losing their strangle hold on the smaller sensor
market.

That's kind of my point. I don't think markets are so much defined by sensor size. Canon, with a flexible sensor size policy, was better able to engineer solutions to market needs. The 1D's addressed the fast, high ISO market, as does the 3D, and as did the D2h. Using a larger sensor allowed Canon to engineer a better solution to that market. Using a bigger sensor still has allowed Nikon to engineer a better solution still, once they'd abandoned the stranglehold of the one sensor size policy.

No matter, this kept margins relatively high. Now Nikon puts
the pressure on the larger sensor market at almost the same time
Canon decides to put more emphasis on the smaller sensor market.
Ironically, Nikon was always dinged for "reacting too slow" to
changing demand, but it seems that Canon is now in that same
position. I'm very suspicious of Canon's strategy at the moment. It
seems a little too much centered on overall market share at the
expense of almost anything else. And, of course, if Nikon is
successful in pulling back the larger sensor market share, this hurts
Canon in the products that were generating the biggest profit margin.

Don't rule out a 1.3x crop as a competitor for the D300 - Canon is just rolling out the products on its development cycle. I don't believe it's reacted to Nikon at all.

I think markets are defined primarily by use.

And by legacy audience. Both Nikon and Canon have huge followings,
some of which still haven't converted to digital, believe it or not
(the D3 moved a lot of those off the fence, though). Nikon is
currently playing to Unmet Demand. Three FX bodies across a full
specification and price range will all do well for awhile, as they
all play to that legacy audience. Canon's current push at the low-end
doesn't really play to the legacy audience, but seems to be an
attempt to shore up erosion (and almost comes too late).

You could say the same about Nikon at the high end. There is no 'legacy audience' for the D3 - it's succeeding by taking sales off Canon. At the pro end, if the 'preferred supplier' doesn't offer the goods, they simply switch.

What would be the lo-pro version of the D3x?

What was tested was 16mp and 18mp.

Interesting information. Let's probe your NDA a little more. In a D300 body?

Against that, the D3x will most likely have an uprezzed version of
the D3 sensor, which will give about 1/2 stop better native sensor
efficiency than the Sony sensor, plus real 14 bit, plus a 10Mpix/9FPS
DX crop mode.

DX high speed, 5:4 crop, 14-bit, otherwise the same as the Sony
sensor I think.

14 bit doesn't work with the Sony sensor architecture (column ADC's have to count four times as fast - that's not a minor mod). Does your information say whether this sensor has a 12 channel analog output or an 8 channel digital one?

So, why did I say Canon has to do a 5D replacement? Because I think
Nikon's three FX cameras are going to do quite well, and the same
thing that we had in the Nikon camp when Canon was iterating large
sensor cameras is going to now happen in the Canon camp. You can see
it brewing already: "I'm going to switch. The D3 is better than the
1DIII. The D3x has more resolution than the 1DsIII. The D10 or
whatever the name turns out to be has more resolution than the 5D.
Nikon's wides are better."

So, if there's a market that's only got them 7000 (not very high margin) sales a month, and now there's two new competitors, will a 5DII even maintain the 7000? Why not drop it and bring in a 1.3x D300 competitor? I'm sure they'd like a slice of that 6000 a month, at decent margins (or maybe both, if they can do a Nikon and develop two cameras on the same development effort, then the FF version might be worthwhile)

-- hide signature --

Bob

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Priaptor
Senior MemberPosts: 1,996Gear list
Like?
You guys are getting worse than us Canon guys
In reply to Hardnose, Jun 14, 2008

Do you really think Nikon would release a D3X so close on the heals of the D3 before the expense of R&D has been reached.

I have been listening to my Canon Cronies talking about a 5D replacement for close to 2 years now.

Enjoy, you only have a year and half left for the D3X.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Guy Swarbrick
Veteran MemberPosts: 4,398Gear list
Like?
We're better in so many ways, though... ;)
In reply to Priaptor, Jun 14, 2008

As for recovering the R&D cost on the D3, they're aimed at completely different markets; the D3x sensor is different and the body is the same. The quicker they get it out the better...

 Guy Swarbrick's gear list:Guy Swarbrick's gear list
Nikon Coolpix P6000 Fujifilm X100S Nikon D700 Nikon D300S Nikon D4 +31 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Guy Swarbrick
Veteran MemberPosts: 4,398Gear list
Like?
Re: Not clear
In reply to bobn2, Jun 14, 2008

bobn2 wrote:

it would
probably mostly take business from the D3, and that means lost profit
margin for Nikon

Possibly. You'd need to know a lot more of the numbers to model that.

You assume that the margin will be lower, but it may not be. Let's assume it is.

You assume some people who would buy a D3 today would buy a small FF body tomorrow. You're probably right, but we don't know how many. But some people who would buy a 5D or a D300 will also buy a small FF body. The 5D margin is all incremental, as is any margin from photographers who haven't switched from digital yet.

So you'd need to know -
mS, vS - margin on small FF body, volume of small FF body
m3, v3d - margin on D3, volume of D3 defectors
v5 - volume of 5D defectors
m300, v300 - margin on D300, volume of D300 defectors
luddites - volume of late film defectors

In your model, you worry that

(mS * vS)

where v3d and vS are the same number. If vS is considerably higher than v3d, you might not care. Really what you want is more like

(mS * (v5 + v3d + v300 + luddites)) > ((m300 * v300) + (m3 * v3d))

And that's assuming D40x/60 switchers aren't a significant profit pool... And that, once they've bought a small FF body as an entry point they don't subsequently buy a D3 or D3x as an upgrade. Particularly likely for luddites, Canon switchers, recent D2Xs purchasers, D40-D60-Dwhatever ladder climbers...

I don't have the numbers, either, but my guess is that Nikon would be fine.

 Guy Swarbrick's gear list:Guy Swarbrick's gear list
Nikon Coolpix P6000 Fujifilm X100S Nikon D700 Nikon D300S Nikon D4 +31 more
Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Priaptor
Senior MemberPosts: 1,996Gear list
Like?
The markets are not as different as they are
In reply to Guy Swarbrick, Jun 14, 2008

between the MKIII and the 1DsMKIII.

I personally, don't see the rush for Nikon to rush to market with a niche product when the D3 is already FF and produces spectacular images with more than enough resolution.

As with the 1DsMKIII, there is a tradeoff with higher ISO vs. noise when comparing the the 1DsMKIII to the MKIII-something not to overlook, and not doubt the same will be true for a D3 v. D3X. Maybe a D3X to replace the D3 when the sensor technology advances to give the same specs on the D3 and then Nikon can release a cheaper FF aka the 5D.

Bottom line, I don't see the utility of releasing a FF replacement at 2-3K higher dollars, that may be less of a camera than the FF that currently exists. 1.3x Cropped sensors do have their benefit.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Keyboard shortcuts:
FForum MMy threads