Thom Hogan is leaking...

Started May 3, 2008 | Discussions
Dave Santora
Senior MemberPosts: 2,552
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Thom Hogan is leaking...
May 3, 2008

...info that is...

From this thread: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=27783287

But the more important aspect of the Olympics, like a few other events, is the > sheer number of professional photographers in one place. It'll be in the many > thousands. And both Canon CPS and Nikon NPS are there in force. They generally > use such venues to show off new equipment and have ubiquitous loaners available. > There certainly will be D3, 200mm f/2, 300mm f/2.8, 400mm f/2.8, 500mm f/4, and > 600mm f/4 all available for the sports, but it would be a missed opportunity not to > have a D3x, D10, and any new lenses there, as well.

D3x, D10 and lenses - hmm... what does Thom know???

  • duplicate in D300 forum

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Doyle
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Is prodding more like it
In reply to Dave Santora, May 3, 2008

Not much much different than what I just did on the software side.

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The Developer
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actually it it leaking
In reply to Dave Santora, May 3, 2008
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danidentity
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Re: Thom Hogan is leaking...
In reply to Dave Santora, May 4, 2008

Verrryyy interesting.

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Chromogenic
Regular MemberPosts: 109
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Nah, not leak...
In reply to Dave Santora, May 4, 2008

... just an educated guess from "two new flagship" thread in D3 forum.

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Loansharkx
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Re: Thom Hogan is leaking...
In reply to Dave Santora, May 4, 2008

LOL

Thom has stated time and again that he has no inside knowledge of anything, but he makes some very good educated guesses.

I'm sure he "obtains" some information from his own reliable, or unreliable, sources as things get closer to release but Thom does his homework and he has a good historical basis and fairly decent market and competitor analysis that helps give him some rough targets as to what Nikon will likely release.

Posts like this don't help though as we enjoy the tidbits and this kind of post can shut the "valves" off for all of us, including Thom. Upcoming releases are obviously pretty guarded secrets. Leaks are often accidentally-intentional

The D10 is something Thom has speculated on a few times because of the naming of the MB-D10 battery pack for the D300... It doesn't follow the standard Nikon naming...(otherwise it would be the MD-D300) and if you think about it, using the same battery pack / grip for more than one body makes some pretty sound manufacturing and marketing sense. (I'm surprised that it would have taken them this long....)

Also, it doesn't really take a rocket scientist to realize that there will be an FX D300 (perhaps a bit larger) size body sometime in the near future.

It is almost certain that there would be a higher resolution body to complement the D3 ... So enter the D3X at some point. The Olympics are coming. Gee... could that be a good place to test a new higher resolution body and hide the guts inside of some D3 bodies if you wanted to do it covertly or ... introduce the body and let the testers have at it at the games with delivery to the marketplace a few months after that, giving you time to correct any problems that the heavy users might discover and giving you some nice marketing promotional materials to boot?

If the new body has the same high ISO and other capabilities equal or better than the D3 and comes in at 24 megapixels... you'd better get in line quick and early... It'd definitely take a while to clear the backorder there... even at what I believe will be an $8,000 price point camera.

Let's assume that's correct...

WHoa... a hole in the price point between the D3 as the high speed PJ, sport or event shooter body and the high end FX 24 MP body... Hmm... can we fill in an FX body there with moderate speed capability at perhaps a little higher MP count and hit a middle price point between the D3 and D3X? Can you say "Room for a D10?"

Julio

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freddyNZ
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to Chromogenic, May 4, 2008

Chromogenic wrote:

... just an educated guess from "two new flagship" thread in D3 forum.

And a post which didn't really make sense, given credibility beyond reason because of including "news" about the D3x - which had been leaked anyway and was common knowledge.

A "budget" Fx would be made in Thailand - not Japan. If not, then it's not really going to be "budget" - perhaps a "compact" Fx - smaller than a D3.

MBD10 could fit the D80 replacement or a possible "compact" Fx, then again it might mean nothing specific to any camera model at all and only ever fit the D300. The old grips/drives from film days had numbers that didn't relate to specific camera models. MB4 for F3, MB11 for Fe etc.

"D* " two numeral name has been reserved for consumer cameras. I doubt you'll see a consumer Fx for quite a while yet, and I doubt any "budget" or "compact" Fx will be called a D10 - ever, but that's an "uneducated" guess. These days, Nikon making a custom grip would be a very easy process - so easy that it's probably a good idea to make them reasonably complex and integrated electronically to a camera model - so that a hurdle is put in place to prevent access to some easy profits by third party makers.

But still, if there's a need to categorise a camera that doesn't yet exist, by a name given to it by deep analysis of an unsubstantiated rumour, then call it the "D10" if you like - it doesn't actually matter.

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Sulis2
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to freddyNZ, May 4, 2008

[quote]If the new body has the same high ISO and other capabilities equal or better than the D3 and comes in at 24 megapixels... you'd better get in line quick and early... It'd definitely take a while to clear the backorder there... even at what I believe will be an $8,000 price point. [ quote]

There is no way that the D3X will have the same high ISO capability (or fps, for that matter) as the D3. Twice the pixels in the same size sensor means smaller pixels means less light-gathering capability.

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Loansharkx
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Should be more precise
In reply to Sulis2, May 4, 2008

That wasn't intended to be a foretelling of things to come or a personal expectation. I meant relatively speaking.

I wouldn't expect exactly the same high ISO performance characteristics to be identical to the D3, nor would I expect the same frame rate. (Imagine the buffer size if so?).

Julio

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freddyNZ
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to Sulis2, May 4, 2008

Sulis2 wrote:

There is no way that the D3X will have the same high ISO capability
(or fps, for that matter) as the D3. Twice the pixels in the same
size sensor means smaller pixels means less light-gathering
capability.

Wrong - the sensor is the same size, it collects the same number of photons in total, so light gathering capability is the same.

Shot noise when viewed at 100% would be greater, but 100% view at 24mp is a lot bigger than 100% view at 12mp. Print them at the same size, and they could be the same - except on a large print, you'd see the increased resolution.

FPS might be the same - perhaps in "DX crop mode" with 10.5mp or so. That might be pretty handy (OTOH the dx crop mode would be noisier than D3 full-frame)

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Cultured Vulture
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Re: Thom Hogan is leaking...
In reply to Dave Santora, May 4, 2008

I hope it doesn't ruin his carpet.
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Respond to rudeness with civility, it really annoys them.

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Jeffrey Anderson
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Re: Thom Hogan is leaking...
In reply to Loansharkx, May 4, 2008

Let's assume that's correct...

WHoa... a hole in the price point between the D3 as the high speed
PJ, sport or event shooter body and the high end FX 24 MP body...
Hmm... can we fill in an FX body there with moderate speed capability
at perhaps a little higher MP count and hit a middle price point
between the D3 and D3X? Can you say "Room for a D10?"

Julio

I believe that the D3 is actually the replacement for the D2H, and the D3X will be the replacement for the D2X. D3X: Twice the MPs, slightly slower and higher priced. The D3 will have better noise performance than the D3X. Nikon can't double the amount of pixels in the same surface area and get better or equal noise performance.

I think that the D10 would slot between the D300 and D3 in price, not necessarily MPs, performance or features. The D10 would be better called a D300X. The D10 (D300) would compete with the 5D replacement. It may have a 16-18 MP sensor as is rumored for the 5D MKII, and that sensor would be used in a camera slotted between the D3 and D3X.

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John W Peterson
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theories vs leaks
In reply to Dave Santora, May 4, 2008

The D3z (or whatever they call it) has already been pretty widely reported / rumored.
The D10 is an interesting theory and it may be in the works but time will tell.

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Muntz
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to freddyNZ, May 5, 2008

freddyNZ wrote:

Sulis2 wrote:

There is no way that the D3X will have the same high ISO capability
(or fps, for that matter) as the D3. Twice the pixels in the same
size sensor means smaller pixels means less light-gathering
capability.

Wrong - the sensor is the same size, it collects the same number of
photons in total, so light gathering capability is the same.

Not so sure. Since more pixels are crammed in the same area there may be space between the pixels to account for, which would diminish the total surface area. The least amount of wasted real estate would be if there were only one pixel (but the res would take a bit of a hit).

Shot noise when viewed at 100% would be greater, but 100% view at
24mp is a lot bigger than 100% view at 12mp. Print them at the same
size, and they could be the same - except on a large print, you'd see
the increased resolution.

Once again, I'm not so sure. I've had D2Xs and D2Hs and, although the sensors were of equal size, there was no contest at iso1600 and above; even when the pics were viewed at equal size. I would imagine if the D2X were capable of pixel binning then it would rival the D2H, but even binning may fall slightly short due to the "possible" extra pixel gaps. Someone correct me if I'm wrong ... I'm just speculating.

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freddyNZ
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to Muntz, May 5, 2008

Muntz wrote:

freddyNZ wrote:

Sulis2 wrote:

There is no way that the D3X will have the same high ISO capability
(or fps, for that matter) as the D3. Twice the pixels in the same
size sensor means smaller pixels means less light-gathering
capability.

Wrong - the sensor is the same size, it collects the same number of
photons in total, so light gathering capability is the same.

Not so sure. Since more pixels are crammed in the same area there may
be space between the pixels to account for, which would diminish the
total surface area. The least amount of wasted real estate would be
if there were only one pixel (but the res would take a bit of a hit).

The space between photosite is mainly irrelevent. Microlenses direct the photons to the photosite. IIRC Nikon released some diagrams even of a double-array microlens used in their latest sensors.

Shot noise when viewed at 100% would be greater, but 100% view at
24mp is a lot bigger than 100% view at 12mp. Print them at the same
size, and they could be the same - except on a large print, you'd see
the increased resolution.

Once again, I'm not so sure. I've had D2Xs and D2Hs and, although the
sensors were of equal size, there was no contest at iso1600 and
above; even when the pics were viewed at equal size. I would imagine
if the D2X were capable of pixel binning then it would rival the D2H,
but even binning may fall slightly short due to the "possible" extra
pixel gaps. Someone correct me if I'm wrong ... I'm just speculating.

There's been a big improvement in Nikon's sensor performance. It's not reasonable to compare an old technology D2x to a D3. You could extrapolate from this chart that if the D2x sensor was "upsized" to a 12mp FX, then it still mightn't have performed as well as a D300 sensor, and still about 1.5 stops behind the D3. How much more improvement might come - who knows?

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Muntz
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to freddyNZ, May 5, 2008

freddyNZ wrote:

Muntz wrote:

freddyNZ wrote:

Sulis2 wrote:

There is no way that the D3X will have the same high ISO capability
(or fps, for that matter) as the D3. Twice the pixels in the same
size sensor means smaller pixels means less light-gathering
capability.

Wrong - the sensor is the same size, it collects the same number of
photons in total, so light gathering capability is the same.

Not so sure. Since more pixels are crammed in the same area there may
be space between the pixels to account for, which would diminish the
total surface area. The least amount of wasted real estate would be
if there were only one pixel (but the res would take a bit of a hit).

The space between photosite is mainly irrelevent. Microlenses direct
the photons to the photosite. IIRC Nikon released some diagrams even
of a double-array microlens used in their latest sensors.

But not completely irrelevant. In fact, I believe SOME space is kept between the pixels in order to suppress blooming.

Shot noise when viewed at 100% would be greater, but 100% view at
24mp is a lot bigger than 100% view at 12mp. Print them at the same
size, and they could be the same - except on a large print, you'd see
the increased resolution.

Once again, I'm not so sure. I've had D2Xs and D2Hs and, although the
sensors were of equal size, there was no contest at iso1600 and
above; even when the pics were viewed at equal size. I would imagine
if the D2X were capable of pixel binning then it would rival the D2H,
but even binning may fall slightly short due to the "possible" extra
pixel gaps. Someone correct me if I'm wrong ... I'm just speculating.

There's been a big improvement in Nikon's sensor performance. It's
not reasonable to compare an old technology D2x to a D3. You could
extrapolate from this chart that if the D2x sensor was "upsized" to a
12mp FX, then it still mightn't have performed as well as a D300
sensor, and still about 1.5 stops behind the D3. How much more
improvement might come - who knows?

Thanks, I had seen the chart. And at the moment I have a D300 and I can definitely attest to its sensor being superior to that of the dated D2X. However, I was comparing D2X and D2H, and the comparison between THOSE two cameras is similar to comaparing a D3 and D3x (if such a 20MP+ beast will exist). You said that noise in the 20mp image will show up only if viewed at 100% (compared to the D3). What I'm saying is that in the case of the D2X compared to the D2H, the D2X was noisier, and NOT only at 100%, but with the same image at the SAME size. Therefore I think it reasonable that the D3x will ALSO exhibit more noise than the D3 when viewing their images AT THE SAME SIZE. The only way that this will not be the case is if, as you say, Nikon has ALREADY made a technological improvement in sensor technology since releasing the D3 (but it would be a pretty amazing jump in a very short time).

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freddyNZ
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to Muntz, May 5, 2008

Muntz wrote:

Therefore I think it reasonable that the D3x will ALSO
exhibit more noise than the D3 when viewing their images AT THE SAME
SIZE.

Wait and see. I tend to think that the D3x will really show the "full-frame advantage" - if you have lenses to match. The 1DsIII gets pasted as usual in these Nikon forums, but I've looked at some 1Ds raw files, and they are significantly better than D3 for sheer resolution. Noise is another matter, but at low ISO the huge DR of the D3 is almost wasted - "pushing" shadows way over 2 stops isn't normal - you can get plenty of latitude from Canon 5d or even D300 low iso files - without obtrusive noise degrading detail. High ISO is where the D3 reigns supreme - for a while anyway (don't be surprised if the "5d Mk II" meets or beats it at far lower price from a sensor POV) IMO high resolution FX can and will replace medium format film for landscape. That's why I'd want one - but not at the expected price. It's still probably years before this filters down to "affordable", but I guess that depends on definition.

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Muntz
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to freddyNZ, May 5, 2008

freddyNZ wrote:

Muntz wrote:

Therefore I think it reasonable that the D3x will ALSO
exhibit more noise than the D3 when viewing their images AT THE SAME
SIZE.

Wait and see. I tend to think that the D3x will really show the
"full-frame advantage" - if you have lenses to match. The 1DsIII
gets pasted as usual in these Nikon forums, but I've looked at some
1Ds raw files, and they are significantly better than D3 for sheer
resolution. Noise is another matter,

Well, of course. I agree with everything you're saying, but I WAS talking about noise. I have no doubt that the extra res is gonna be great. I imagine it will be essentially D300 quality (hopefully a tad better due to improvements since the latter's release) at 24MP. Yum. But, as you mentioned earlier, the D3 does have a 1.5 stop edge over the D300. But I hope you're right and that the D3x wll lag even less in noise compared to the D3.

but at low ISO the huge DR of
the D3 is almost wasted - "pushing" shadows way over 2 stops isn't
normal - you can get plenty of latitude from Canon 5d or even D300
low iso files - without obtrusive noise degrading detail. High ISO is
where the D3 reigns supreme - for a while anyway (don't be surprised
if the "5d Mk II" meets or beats it at far lower price from a sensor
POV) IMO high resolution FX can and will replace medium format film
for landscape. That's why I'd want one - but not at the expected
price. It's still probably years before this filters down to
"affordable", but I guess that depends on definition.

Yep, fully agree, except maybe about the D3's DR being almost wasted. High DR gives great latitude in post processing, and I'd luuuv to get that sensor in a D300 body (really hope those D10 rumors are true, and if I need 20MP+ I'll stitch

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freddyNZ
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Re: Nah, not leak...
In reply to Muntz, May 5, 2008

Muntz wrote:

Yep, fully agree, except maybe about the D3's DR being almost wasted.
High DR gives great latitude in post processing

Yeah I agree - but how I see it is that at base ISO, there's tons of DR latittide in Canon 5d and D300 raw files for normal PP - where I might normally force shadows by a stop, but not over 2 stops. let alone the 3+ stops the D3 allows. I've gotten in to the habit of leaving my grad NDs in the bag - there's so little advantage over pushing in pp (using NX). OTOH if you're using it over base iso, then those extra stops with the D3 will open new possibilities.

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Pradipta Dutta
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Don't think so; you are mistaking his analytical skills with leak
In reply to Dave Santora, May 5, 2008

Thom Hogan is always known to be a very good analyst of the current situation. The post you have referred to conveys nothing other than his strong analytical skills. The leaks would typically come in as an insider information without any logic. While the posts from Thom are the result of analyzing the situation and knowledge of the market.

That is not to say he does not know the insider details. He might. But he has not posted anything to say he is leaking information. This simply appears to be result of good analysis rather than leak.

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