Another FX camera coming soon? Part Two

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ralittle2
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Another FX camera coming soon? Part Two
3 months ago

The prior thread reached it's maximum comments and I was unable to respond to a question so here goes.

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ralittle2 wrote:

bobn2 wrote:

is but Nikon going with a 5 model FX lineup above $2k makes no sense either, they are just slicing a small market too many ways. So, the range is pretty much set a Dx, D8x0, D6x0 and the Df. The only room for a new one, given that the D4 and D800 have just been 'essed' is the D620, that is what it will be. As for the precise spec, at the moment, only Nikon knows.

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Bob

There is certainly room from a price point between the D610 & D810.

But not a market large enough to support another price point. Nikon already has a camera in that gap, the Df at $2750. The point is that each extra camera must create new sales, not just borrow sales from the others, if it does that, there is no point. I'd guess Nikon's thinking with the Df was that it was so off the wall it would generate significant new sales. So, let's speculate on a $2500 camera, what would it's spec have to be that would generate a lot of additional sales, without taking sales from the D610, Df and D810?

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Bob

Bob, my apologies for neglecting the Df, which is indeed in between the D610 & D810.  I wasn't trying to make a point by overlooking it; I simply forgot about it.  Now the reason I forgot about it is another story.  We have been talking about market sized for various cameras and whether there is room for another FX body in the lineup extensively.  My opinion is that the market size for the Df due to a variety of factors is much smaller than a D700 replacement, the D610 & D810 and probably for a cheaper FX body if it were to ever come.  On the last camera, I am not advocating for it, as I think a FX body cheaper than a D610 and stripped of even more features would be a poor choice.  I'd much rather have a D7100 than a D500.

Said, another way, I don't think the Df factors into whether to introduce a D710 camera.  Everything about such a camera would be vastly different than the Df.  I don't see any cross-shopping between the two.  I may be wrong, but that is my opinion.  Manufactures can and frequently do have products that overlap in price but are aimed at different markets.

There are some who argue that if a certain model did were introduced then it would adversely impact another model.  That is almost always the case, but what's important is the total revenue generated by the model range.  If a company knows that a new model will steal some sales from a top-line product, but generate more sales to more than make up for it then it would make financial and marketing sense.

To take an example from the auto industry (yes, I like cars, a lot) Porsche produces two model lines of sports cars, the 911 & Boxster/Cayman.  It is possible to spec out a Boxster that costs more than a basic 911, so there is some overlap there.  However, if the Boxster didn't exist then maybe a few folks would buy a 911 instead.  BUT, there is generally a significant price difference between the two, and more folks can afford a Boxster than a 911.  So, eliminate the Boxster, but that doesn't mean you would automatically pick up that sales number of 911s.

So, back to cameras, I content the Df and a D710 have very little overlap in what purchasers are looking for.  The price would be very similar.  However, there has been a consistent number of folks who have complained about the lack of a D700 replacement, and there was very little moaning about a Df-type camera before it was introduced.  So, that's why I think they could coexist and not step too much on each other's toes.

Time will tell what Nikon is thinking.  I think we could agree that Nikon's reasoning regarding recent models hasn't always followed the traditional thinking with regard to model replacement or new ones either.  We'll see in a few weeks (I hope) what they think we want.

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