Stats for first half - only mirrorless are growing

Started 1 month ago | Discussions thread
tko
tko
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7 years for mirrorless to equal dSLR sales
In reply to peevee1, 1 month ago

Assuming the numbers are correct and a consistent trend, mirrorless shows a 4% growth in one year starting with 269K made, dSLRs show a 14% drop starting with 807 made. Some simple math shows it will take 7 years for mirrorless to achieve equality. It will take 13 years for the roles to reverse, with mirrorless leading by 3:1

At which point there will be a new and better technology. I'm not holding my breath.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201406_e.pdf

But really, stats like this are totally meaningless. If you could compare cell phones to mirrorless, you'd predict mirrorless would be wiped off the face of the the earth soon. Of course, the real answer is that there is a base market for cell phones, a base market for mirrorless, and a base market for dSLRs, and the market is currently adjusting.

I wouldn't be proud of mirrorless sales exceeding dSLRs anymore than cell phone users should be proud their sales exceed mirrorless. To each his own. Should I gloat because dSLR sales outnumber medium format? Is medium format dead?

It's like the predictions that tablets will replace desktop computers based on sales. Tablets will take away sales as people who never needed the power of a desktop snap them up, but that doesn't mean the PC is dead.

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