Is this the year Pentax makes or breaks your FF dream?

Started 3 months ago | Discussions thread
Leandros S
Senior MemberPosts: 1,093Gear list
Like?
Crucial thing you're missing
In reply to justin23, 3 months ago

justin23 wrote:

Leandros S wrote:

justin23 wrote:

Leandros S wrote:

John_A_G wrote:

zakaria wrote:

2 years to 5 this system will be as full frame price. I MO.
--
pentaxian .

Why do you think cost will come down so rapidly?

Larger sensor, requiring larger optics and very small production runs. No manufacturing competition for sensors. There is nothing driving the cost down on that platform.

That's the chicken and egg fallacy in a lot of people's thinking. As the price goes down, so do the manufacturing costs because demand increases. Manufacturing costs are only relatively high as long as demand is low. Additionally, there are diminishing returns - small suppliers can reduce their costs more effectively in response to added demand than large suppliers can. So as demand increases, the gap between high volume and low volume producers closes.

-- hide signature --

No amount of perceived entitlement can replace actual expertise.

Demand isn't growing for FF though. Its growing for mirrorless and smaller cameras.

When prices go down, demand goes up. I don't think the downward trend in FF is big enough to not see demand increase when new price points are announced - that's the whole basis of retail dropping prices, after all. You can create new demand even for old cameras if you push the price low enough.

In any case, we weren't talking about full frame. This part of the thread follows from the suggestion that the 645D lineage is Pentax' answer to full frame. So demand projections for full frame are not all that relevant. Demand for "medium format" would be.

-- hide signature --

No amount of perceived entitlement can replace actual expertise.

Yes demand does go up when prices come down, but all prices tend to come down as well, so while the latest FF might be $3-4k, and cheapest FF $2k, MF might get down to $5-6k and aps-c and m4/3 could be easily under $1k for the best of those formats.

FF prices are going down faster than APS-C. MF prices are going down faster than FF. APS-C and m4/3 prices are not going down much any more.

People can often afford the more expensive model, the more expensive lens, more expensive car etc, but unless they see the value they still won't buy it.

Also FF prices have been coming down, but overall market share hasn't grown. MF is probably in the same boat, given there is only 1 MF that an amateur can realistically afford.

We haven't recovered from the crisis yet. Everything changes when the markets are up again. I'm not making a projection on the if and when here, just giving you the conventional wisdom.

I'm happy to be proved wrong in the next say 2-5 years. These same arguments though have been around for 10+ years and FF has come down a lot in price and the market share isn't growing that much.

One can't help but wonder what might have happened if the D600 hadn't been a debacle, though. The 6D seems to be doing well. What I find interesting is that some people have stopped seeing the format barrier. They look at flagship Pentax/Olympus and compare that to entry level FF because they're all in the 1k+ USD category. Most people don't jump in with a tele, so they don't realise the difference for a while.

-- hide signature --

No amount of perceived entitlement can replace actual expertise.

Reply   Reply with quote   Complain
Post (hide subjects)Posted by
Keyboard shortcuts:
FForum PPrevious NNext WNext unread UUpvote SSubscribe RReply QQuote BBookmark post MMy threads
Color scheme? Blue / Yellow