The Economist article on mirrorless cameras

Started 6 months ago | Discussions thread
Eamon Hickey
Veteran MemberPosts: 3,170
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time period too small
In reply to Philnw2, 6 months ago

Philnw2 wrote:

I agree with your comment, except for the last sentence. It won't take a lot of years

In the last CIPA report, for Jan, Feb March of 2014,

Column 4 is for Jan Feb Mar of 2014 compared to the same period a year previously.

A. DSLRs shipments were 82.7% for this 3 months from the previous year, 2.1 million cameras

B. Mirrorless shipments were 115.7% for this 3 months from the previous year, 0.7 million cameras

On 3-month period isn't enough to reach any conclusions or to make the 1-year projection that you made.

In the quarter just before the one you cited above, for example, DSLRs did better than mirrorless. DSLR unit shipments were down about 13% year-on-year, but mirrorless unit shipments were down about 21% year-on-year. It would have been easy for anybody to come on this forum and use those figures to project the imminent death of mirrorless -- they were after all shrinking 30% faster than DSLRs, right?

It may be that mirrorless will make another permanent gain on ILC market share starting this year (mirrorless has been stuck at about 20% of the worldwide ILC market for about a year, or slightly more). But we won't really know that's happening until we can see several consecutive quarterly reports. One quarter is not enough.

I do think that mirrorless cameras will eventually hold the majority share of the ILC market, but I'll be very surprised if that happens by 2015.

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