The Economist article on mirrorless cameras

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JonTafferOfPhotography
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Re: The Economist article on mirrorless cameras
In reply to Donny out of Element here, 2 months ago

Donny out of Element here wrote:

JonTafferOfPhotography wrote:

Dandrewk wrote:

JonTafferOfPhotography wrote:

Dandrewk wrote:

Zeisschen wrote:

A niche, yes, maybe in the American market. They forgot however, that America is not the center of the photography world.

I am pretty sure that in 5-10 years we will look at DSLR as the transition technology between analogue and digital photography. Some collectors or oldies might still use them, like the rangefinder manual focus Leicas today, but the market will be 95% mirrorless. Why? Because in 2013 and 2014 the Mirrorless could catch up in terms of viewfinder, sensor size and finally AF speed.

The Canikon DSLR systems are alomst technically obsolete, even more with the next generation of mirrorless to come. Lens systems of mirrorless systems are grown up and already almost serve all needs of professional photographers. Nobody needs 200 lenses in a system any more in a world, where zoom lenses are almost as good as primes and speed can be compensated by incredible high ISO capability of modern sensors. The average user still only has the kit lens + maybe a 50mm and a wide angle.

My last I sentence:

Canon and Nikon better play the mirrorless game serious, their DSLR systems might be niche and obsolete in less than 5 years.

I totally agree. Canon and Nikon will be seen as lens makers who still manufacture a few dinosaur DSLRs for the die-hards. They better get their mirrorless acts together, because Sony is already 1+ generations ahead.

when canikon finally make their full frame mirrorless move, I think all others will be left in the dust.

primarily including sony.

that said, I think we are several years (3-8 years or more) away from mirrorless cameras that perform (viewfinder/AF) in low light like a DSLR.

That is almost verbatim what was said regarding Apple when they introduced the iPhone. "Just wait until BlackBerry does the same, it will be all over".

If Sony continues its technological edge over its rivals, it will continue to be the market leader in this segment. As time goes by, that becomes more and more locked into reality. How many former Canon/Nikon users are now Sony users? How about people new to photography? How likely would they start with a Sony mirrorless and then go to DSLRs?

Regarding your last paragraph, that "several years" is already here. I guess you haven't been paying attention. The A7/r is already the equal of it's DSLR rivals in low light performance. The A7s blasts them clear out of the water. An EVF has it all over DSLR in low light compositions. And the $600 a6000 -outperforms- Nikon's flagship DSLR in autofocus.

The future is already here. Nikon and Canon are squarely behind the curve.

textbook false analogy. cellphones are not systems. please think before you post.

maybe we are talking about 2 different types of users, because of the dozens and dozens of my professional colleagues, zero have switched to mirrorless. amateurs may love them, but in my eyes they are just a gateway drug to DSLR. And for the amateur folks who "switched" from DSLRs, they probably owned cheap plastic crop sensor POSs and 2 slow kit zooms anyways. no one who depends on the camera for a living (in low light) can comfortably shoot mirrorless right now.

mirrorless EVFs do not perform like DSLRs in low light. if you took photos in low light with flash to pay your bills, you'd already know that.

i own and love the a6000, my 4yo nikon d5100 focuses better in low light by a wide wide margin, especially accuracy in AF-C.

sony a7/a7r are amateur systems, that's why we see all the slow glass. that said, you can shoot "pro" landscape/portrait on just about anything. so yeah, fauxtographers like trey ratcliff are pretty happy right now (because he doesn't care about adapted lens corner performance).

when canikon make their pro systems they will have us in mind. we saw this same thing happen with film vs. digital, but for other market segments. canikon moves painfully slow, but they have the long view. and when they move, it will be their mirrorless systems you will lust after.

About Canikon move... too little too late. Canikon is already a 2 generations behind in sensor tech. there is simply physics and common sense - they won't be able to catch up for a long time now. And the gap is only growing.

And one more thing. About lenses. If you look closer - no one wants to use DSLR designed lenses on mirrorless cameras, and Canon will have to start over again to build a nicer lenses with new concept in mind. Fun times ahead.

A) two years is nothing in the camera world (they are not 2 generations behind, we've only really had two generations of bayer sensors, to begin with) how many years did canon have full frame before nikon? who has the worlds best full frame sensors today?

B) i guess that's why the LAEA4 adapter exists? or the nikon FT-1 adapter sells used for 85% of what it cost new 3 years ago? you might be right for some folks, but full frame fast glass is big, on any system, that's why we see nothing but slow e-mount glass. furthermore, in the pro use case, mirrorless will not be about compactness and size, it must be about reliability and performance. the performance isnt there right now, it's just a fact. pros already roll pelicans full of gear, mirrorless won't change that. so what about big lenses?

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