Where is the industry heading - some thoughts.

Started 7 months ago | Discussions thread
Richard Weisgrau
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Re: Where is the industry heading - some thoughts.
In reply to GeraldW, 7 months ago

Personally, I think the fact that Apple has hired camera designers in the iPhone division and has applied for several related patents is a predictor of the future of smart phones. Cell phones have put a dent in P&S sales. The newest (good) smart phones are pounding that dent deeper and deeper and will continue to do so. As I often remark about my iPhone: "I have a camera that has a phone built into it." I have no doubts that smart phones will squeeze the P&S makers harder and harder over the next decade.  I do not think that the top end FLCs will be as affected during that decade.  That will come later when the smart phone cameras reach a state of sensor technology to enable switching.

That said, I think sensor and EVF technology will be the determining factor in what ILCs take top billing. Right now the SLR optical finder can't be matched with an EVF. But in 2005 I had a Panasonic Lumix 5mp Lc1 with a crude EVF. Today I have a Lumix G6, and its EVF is many times better than  that of the Lc1. The introduction of hybrid VFs as in some Fuji models offers a glimpse of the kind of innovation that could be a game changer when it comes to preferred VF systems. It remains to be seen, but the SLR optical has pretty much reached its pinnacle, so if an EVF can ever match it, look out DSLRs.

When it comes to the popular camera companies I don't see any of them dropping out. They will adapt, stop selling some configurations, and add others. But this digital camera market (worldwide - and that is an important word) is in its infancy, and big players do not lay down and roll over when the going gets tough. They tend more to adapt to changing markets. Years (1960s) ago Leica and Nikon each made one camera. As the market changed they changed with it. Except Leica Camera almost went out of business because it was slow to give up its old strategy. Who would have ever thought that Leica would design and set the QC standard for some Panasonic lenses? No one!

I have seen so many changes in the photography marketplace over the past 5 decades that I just take them in stride and wait to se how they turn out.  In the meantime, I buy the gear I think will work best for me and what I want to do with it. My Nikons (47 year user) are gone and Panny Lumix G gear is growing.

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Richard Weisgrau
www.drawnwithlight.com
www.show-my-house.com

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