Who will abandon mirrorless first?

Started 9 months ago | Polls thread
David Hull
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Re: Who will abandon mirrorless first?
In reply to EinsteinsGhost, 9 months ago

EinsteinsGhost wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

David Hull wrote:

EinsteinsGhost wrote:

EinsteinsGhost wrote:

So at least we have proven one thing. You are no eyeinstyne.
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When you learn to spell, you might figure out that one doesn't need to be Einstein to figure out that digital photography will only become more digital.

I think a better way to say it is that we can expect the mechanical stuff more and more be replaced by electronic equivelents -- where it makes sense. I think the devil is in the details when it comes to the "where it makes sense part". Right now, I suspect that the mechanical solution is still cheaper (particularly for the manufacturers that traditionally have built them that way). I think that it is a nobrainier to make the long term prediction that the flip up mirror will someday be a thing of the past but the question is when. It seems that there are issues of. cost, performance and perception that need to be addressed in the meantime.

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I don't think cost is an issue. If anything, it would be cheaper approach to go mirrorless. However, at this time the mirrorless systems are new and the typical consumer largely driven by "tradition". Being new also increases development costs especially of support system (lenses) and need to advance the technology to do it differently. Even the m43 system is barely six years old. Sony's E-mount will turn four this summer.

I am not convinced. Do you think it is cheaper to include a flip-up mirror, the little motor that drives it and the pentaprisim than the display, driver SoC etc. for the electronic approach? I am guessing not, mechanical stuff is really cheap particularly when it has been optimized for years.

You are guessing wrong. Electronic parts get cheaper all the time. SoC is in camera anyway. And for DSLR, you forgot separate focusing system, and OVFs include some kind of display to show some basic information too (at least activity of focus).

Precision mechanics is expensive and always will be.

I guarantee you, if you were to go through the BOM costing exercise on any of these cameras regardless of the design (mirrorless or otherwise) the biggest cost items will be the semiconductors display drivers and the displays themselves.

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Compared to which parts (and their assembly, warranty/repair costs)? One of the keys to lower cost has been digitization and consolidation.

With a DSLR you have a mirror, a secondary mirror, a metering module, an AF module and cost tk assemble these together. You still need electronics to put them all together to work. Then, any misalignment needs addressing (most cameras don't but higher end models do). With mirrorless, the sensor has it all integrated.

Then consider mechanical shutters. With NEX-6, I shoot exclusively with EFCS on. The shutter lag is already incredibly low (at 0.02s). Now we are also talking about some of the fastest AF tracking off sensor data. We are looking at $650 camera doing 11fps with ability to track continuously. We might eventually see more widespread use of electronic shutter probably enabling significantly high shutter speed.

IMO, improvement in sensor's imaging capabilities is now slowing down so these other areas will undoubtedly become a focal point.

This all may be true -- it is anyone's guess really.  However, we are not seeing the mirrorless coming in at any significant reduction in cost.  This may be the manufacturers pricing to "perceived value" rather than manufacturing cost.  We'll know the reality once the things have been out for a while and the real price starts to become known.  For example we know that Canon doesn't need to sell the 5DIII for $3500 if they don't want to.  What will the mirrorless devices come down to?

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