Pentax interview pretty clear about FF inevitability....

Started 10 months ago | Discussions thread
Philnw2
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Re: For all the FF hype, the estimated FF percentage seems stagnent for this year
In reply to Jim in Hudson, 10 months ago

Jim in Hudson wrote:

Philnw2 wrote:

Zvonimir Tosic wrote:

FF market is already very crowded, and yet, still in single % digits of the overall camera market. See what is all available there, new and second-hand:

— Nikon

D3, D3s, D3x
D4, soon D4s
D800/800e
D600/610

— Canon

1D4, 1DX
5D, 5DII, 5DIII
6D

— Sony

A800, A850, A99,
A7/A7r
RX1

— Leica

M9, M9P, M-240, M-E

That is some 25 cameras! Perhaps I have omitted some.

If you wanted to introduce something new and interesting, how would you act? To do something worthwhile in such a crowded, yet very small market, one needs to make something really interesting in terms of a camera, and also in terms of lenses.

And still be perfectly aware that sales won’t excite at all in a single digit market.

Whatever Pentax does, won’t change anything. Because even D600/6D did not change anything.

A turning point in the camera market will the moment when both Nikon and Canon start implementing FF sensors in their consumer grade cameras, like D5xxxx series, the next 80D or something similar, and keep the prices same or similar

Or, when (and if) they completely erase those lower end lines in favour of D610 and 6D camera lines but keep the prices same or very similar.

But are we there yet? And are the customers ready for another round of purchases?

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Madamina, il catalogo è questo; Delle belle che amò il padron mio; un catalogo egli è che ho fatt'io; Osservate, leggete con me.

From all the FF fans out there, and from all the hype at Nikon, Canon and Sony, one would think the FF market is going to explode. But when i started a thread on the other forum and asked folks to estimate what the percentage of ILC sales would FF be in 2014, most responders thought it wouldn't be much more than it is today.

Seems like a big disconnect to me.

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Phil B
Nex 6, 5n, Pentax K5, Epson R3000, 3880

I don't see how anyone can even give an opinion on the future size of the FF ILC market without first being handed an assumption about the premium to be paid for FF over APS-C (like for like). Certainly everyone would answer differently if they knew the premium was $200 vs $2000. Right now, I doubt there are any really good predictions of what that premium will be in three years.

Yes, but that hasn't stopped FF fans from insisting that we all must move to FF cameras.  I agree with you, cost is very much of a factor.  When this is pointed up to the FF fans, they then switch to the assertions that costs are going down on chips, as always.  It seems so silly that whenever i ask what estimate will proponents make regarding the size of the FF share of ILCs, that folks stop talking about FF.  I've gotten far more opinions that the FF share size is not going to get much larger anytime soon than the opposite.  In fact when i mentioned my est. of FF share was to be 15% at the end of 2014, i was told that's probably too high.

Surely Nikon, Canon and Sony are estimating their returns on investment in FF.

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Phil B
Pentax K-3(Best APS Camera) Nex 6, 5n, Epson R3000, 3880

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