Mirrorless Spanked at 2014 World Press Photo Comp.

Started Feb 20, 2014 | Discussions thread
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Re: Mirrorless Spanked at 2014 World Press Photo Comp.
In reply to Graham Hill, Feb 21, 2014

Graham Hill wrote:

Jim Salvas wrote:

I suspect a similar chart from 2002 would have had a 2% slice for digital cameras and there would be some fool loudly proclaiming that "digital got spanked."

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Jim Salvas

Your analogy fails completely.

Digital had a steady level of growth over film once it became affordable. There was NO stopping digital. That was transparent to anyone but the clueless.

Mirrorless has sputtered, coughed, wheezed, and stalled after its early adoption. By any metric available mirrorless is in decline faster than the SLR market. By ANY metric available, mirrorless is losing their manufacturers tens of millions of dollars every quarter. We are all STILL waiting for a single, solitary mirrorless maker to post $1 in profit. Just a single $1.

Year after year after year after year, mirrorless cameras lose millions upon millions of dollars.

I think his analogy nails it. Any mechanical components that can be replaced by electronic versions likely will be in the future.

Moving parts fail. Sure, manufacturers could probably start building shutter mechanisms out of graphene or some other crazy material, but why? Finding a whole new way to build a mechanical device is hard, but improvements in electronic capabilities are steady, consistent- safe and predictable, just like manufacturers like it. Solid state drives will replace hard drives, and mirrorless will replace mirrors.

But what about viewfinders? 10 years from now, electronic viewfinders will have such high resolution and refresh rates that they will be indistinguishable from OVFs to the human eye. They will give large magnification and 100% coverage like expensive OVFs, but cost less to produce. The only inherent benefit of an OVF is that it's like looking through a window, at nothing at all. The future EVF will do this and then some.

The last frontier will probably be lenses without moving parts, but they're working on it. Liquid lenses already exist that replace the AF motor- the most likely part to fail on a lens- and control focus electrically. As soon as lenses don't need mechanical motors, they won't have them.

Mirrorless IS the future, it's only a matter of time. Admittedly, it has a ways to go. The problem is that much of the tech is still in its infancy. Calling it dead now is like someone looking at the first Model T and saying "Henry Ford is crazy. Look at that thing- it's slower than my horse, it breaks down more than my horse, its louder than my horse....who would ever sell such a thing?"

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