Interesting read by Thom Hogan

Started 10 months ago | Discussions thread
SQLGuy
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Re: Interesting read by Thom Hogan
In reply to Geedorama, 10 months ago

Seems like a pretty loaded article. For instance, he talks about how there were just a few mounts to consider in the early SLR/Rangefinder days, including Canon and Nikon. There he completely skips over the fact that Nikon had S and F, and Canon has S and R and FL/FD. There were certainly no less competing mount formats back then than now, and it's only in hindsight that you know F mount went on to such longevity.

Canon was successful with FL/FD/nFD for over 20 years, but then they dropped it and went to EF. FD was a successful mount system, but eventually things in the market and technology changed too much for it to continue to be viable (also, Canon probably wanted to force their loyal customers to buy new lenses). Trying to predict the future by looking at the past when things are changing dramatically is a risky gamble. If I had asked you in 2002 what Kodak (who had been the dominant imaging company for over 100 years) would be doing in imaging 10 years down the road, do you think you would have predicted their demise?

As to "trusting" the manufacturers: you've got to be kidding. They are not charitable organizations, they are for-profit businesses. When they can, they will do whatever they think will make them most money in the long run. When they are squeezed, they will do whatever they have to to survive. Neither path includes any kind of altruism other than the hopes that building loyal customers will make them more money in the long run.

So, for now, you can probably play it safe... the safe-est being Nikon full frame, or maybe Leica full frame, and bet on somebody supporting that wealth of lenses even if the parent companies go the way of Kodak (I think this is what Thom was advocating at the end of his article), or you can be realistic about buying into leading edge tech now that will give you a lot of good pictures now, and, as a system, may be as short lived as a Contax G in the longer term.

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