Rolling the Dice on 2014

Started 9 months ago | Discussions thread
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Vera Cognome
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Rolling the Dice on 2014
9 months ago

Well, it's that time of year again. Instead of a horse handicapping theme, though, I thought I'd switch gambling games to something more appropriate for Nikon's last year. Hence, a craps theme, which comes close to a good description of Nikon's financial results. All odds shown are "true" odds and exclude the house edge.  This is not a gambling site.

Pass Line Bet:

Last year, Nikon took a Pass on the higher-end DX format market and didn't introduce a D400 or a 16-85mm f/4 or a 17-55mm f/2.8 VR. In the meantime, Canon went with Don't Pass with the 70D, and Sigma made a stunning bet with the 18-35mm f/1.8. That lens was by far the most interesting release of the year; I can almost hear the boardroom conversations.

  • Chief Marketer: Why didn't you make this lens for me.
  • Chief Designer: Why didn't you tell me you wanted it?

Will Nikon decide there's money to be made in DX upsells? See the below for my odds.

Come Bet:

In 2012, Nikon placed a bet that the time for MILC cameras had come. In 2013, they backed that bet with odds with the 32mm f/1.2, two other lenses and an underwater product. The odds remain against
this bet, so don't expect Nikon to press it too hard in 2014.

Multi Roll Bets:

4 Hard Way: (8-1 odds) Nikon ships a 20mm f/1.8 FX.
6 Hard Way: (10-1) Nikon ships a 17mm PC-E.
8 Hard Way: (10-1) Nikon ships a 3rd generation 70-200mm f/2.8 VR.
10 Hard Way: (8-1) Nikon ships a 24-70mm f/2.8 VR.
Big 6: (6-5) Nikon ships a V2 successor in 2014
Big 8: (6-5) Nikon ships a D4 successor in 2014

Single Roll Bets:

The Field: (5-4 odds) Nikon ships at least one more "Special Edition" lens for the DF.
Whirl Bet 1: (2-1) Nikon ships a 135mm f/1.8 or f/2 lens.
Whirl Bet 2: (2-1) Nikon ships a new 180mm or 200mm Micro.
Any 7: (5-1 per dinosaur replaced) Nikon ships a 14mm f/2.8G, 20mm f/2.8G, 24mm f/2.8G, 28mm f/2.8G, 105mm f/2G VR, 180mm f/2.8G VR, or 300mm f/4G VR. (The 35mm f/2D replacement is off the board.)
Horn Bet: (5-1) Nikon ships a "real" D400, 17-55mm f/2.8 DX VR, and/or 16-85mm f/4 VR.
Any Craps: (8-1) Nikon ships a wide angle DX prime other than a fisheye.
Ace-Deuce: (17-1) Nikon ships a slower 400mm prime (f/4 or f/5.6)
Yo (17-1) Nikon ships any f/1.8 or f/2 DX or FX zoom.
Snake Eyes: (35-1) Nikon ships any f/1.2 FX or DX prime. Sorry folks, but Otus and Noct "tribute" announcements pretty much killed this hope.
Box Cars: (35-1) Nikon either exits the MILC market or introduces a MILC camera with a larger sensor.

Enjoy and Happy New Year!

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