Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

Started Nov 10, 2013 | Discussions thread
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Re: Prepare yourselves for a new landscape
In reply to meland, Nov 12, 2013

meland wrote:

May I make a prediction? Many of you are not going to like it, but before you throw your toys out of the pram please hear me out.

In ten or fifteen years (the exact time span is not the main point of this prediction) mainstream enthusiast photography may have gone small format. Forget full frame. Forget APS-C. Forget M4/3. These may all be then regarded as medium format and as such only the province of a few professionals and quality fetishists.

The manufacturers are already come to the realisation that tinkering at the edges with the formats we have today no longer produces sufficient sales to support the market. The debate about mirrorless v DSLR will have long gone.

They (the manufacturers) will have realised that what the markets really want is not ultimate image quality but small and convenient products. Using small sensors (which will have improved a bit, although not as much as many here hope or expect) it will be possible to create small systems that have tremendous mass appeal. While we accept the size of current products the new customer simply will not. The market for people who will accept cameras the size of,say, a 6D or 700D (and I only mention those as roughly representative of the breed of DSLRs we have today) and huge lenses such as a 70-200/2.8, or even a 24-105/4 will be over once consumers are offered something much smaller and lighter.

It is not prediction about the future, it is the description of the recent past. Over the last 15 years or so (digital camera age), cameras with small sensors (2/3" and smaller) outsold everything else 50 to 1 or so, and if counting cameras built-in into other devices such as phones and tablets, probably 1000:1.

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