Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

Started Nov 10, 2013 | Discussions thread
stevo23
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Re: you think there will be F/0.6 zooms in 15 years
In reply to meland, Nov 12, 2013

meland wrote:

RussellInCincinnati wrote:

But what you are really predicting is not that bigger cameras will disappear, because that's silly. Bigger cameras will always take nicer photos, whatever the era. No what you're really predicting is that in 10 or 15 years there will be no photographers. I.e. there will be no people that enjoy taking as nice as photos as they reasonably can of the world around them.

That prediction is as likely to come true, as it is likely that neither you nor any significant number of viewers of this forum message, will click on the above image to see what it looks like at full size.

No Russell, what I am saying is that with a relatively small increase in small sensor quality (and not nearly as much as you say I am implying) the majority of fairly-interested photographers, or should I say non-obsessed by IQ photographers, may be completely satisfied. They may not care as much as you do, or perhaps even I do, about beautifully smooth and detailed/crisp images. But the images they do get will be good enough and will satisfy them. And I am certainly not saying there will be, or even implying there might be, any massive increase in lens aperture or performance to achieve this. I know enough about optical design and materials having worked in this particular field for more years than I care to admit to know that is very unlikely if not impossible. And I don't think I ever mentioned low light performance in any case.

The really serious enthusiasts and a few professionals may not be satisfied, in fact they probably will not be. But that reduced number of people who really care about what you so eloquently describe may not be sufficient to support a camera market like we have today.

I don't think that number is reduced. The proportion of the population who are "image quality conscious" (my own term) hasn't changed. It's probably important to spell this out a little more clearly as I tend to think that you're onto something. See my comment below.

High end stuff, at a price, will still exist for the reduced numbers of people who really do care - but the price of entry is likely to be much much higher because of reduced demand. That is actually what I am saying. I hope I have been able to clarify things?

I think high end stuff has always been high end stuff and I don't think the proportion of interested buyers has increased. The question is whether or not the middle and low cost market of low end DSLRs, compacts etc. was helping fund the higher end stuff and whether or not that means higher prices for enthusiasts and pros like us. I don't personally think it will mean higher prices. I think it will mean longer periods between new models and features.

If you compare it to what happened with medium format, I can your point. It could happen that way. But if the current fad of full frame sensors continues, it could be that the history of 110 is more of the future predictor than the history of medium format.

I also think image quality has some bearing. If M43 sensors get to 36Mp (quality 36Mp that is) and we see f/.6 lenses, fewer people would be interested in full frame. Heck, even 36 Mp and f/1.0 would do it I think.

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