Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

Started 8 months ago | Discussions thread
SomebodyFamous
Regular MemberPosts: 324
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Re: I'll make my own prediction
In reply to Aberaeron, 8 months ago

Aberaeron wrote:

SomebodyFamous wrote:

Aberaeron wrote:

With even the paparazzi professionals being replaced by reporters with iPhones, I don't really think that the expensive 'professional' DSLR has much of a future. If the volume of high end product drops significantly, the remaining products in that sector will have to rise in price. There is no room for a rise in price because the cat is out of the bag and people know that less expensive cameras will do the same job. And so do the professionals know this also, and they will have to become more efficient and have lower costs in future, not higher costs, if they are to derive a meaningful income from still images. In fact the demand is already there for combined still and video shooters. If neither the camera manufacturers nor the photographers get in the groove on this, there are plenty of others to take their place. Low cost, efficient workflow, innovative products and services, that is what the market will increasingly demand of both professional photogs and equipment manufacturers. Nobody can afford a stagnant market for long. They just will not survive unless they rise to the challenge.

Look at the B&H catalog. There are two pages of medium format digital. Some doesn't make it past 16 megapixels. Medium format users don't care about high-isos - they want maximum quality and use low isos.

The vast majority of the medium format digitals are 40 megapixels or under. That's pretty much a Nikon D800. I suspect MF users would use the same complaints that DSLR users use against compact sized sensors.

There are a couple of 50, 60 and one 80 megapixel sensor. The prices are well out of the pocket of the average amateur though at up to about $40K.

The fact I see fewer medium format cameras that amateurs can afford makes me suspect that the medium format market is shrinking with former medium format people using the 35mm format instead.

I can well see a gradual downsizing of cameras. To be honest, I can't really see much point in anything other than the 28 - 1,000 superzooms for most amateurs.

There will always be people who want something a bit different and challenging compared to others.

Yes, downsizing is inevitable. As is mechanical simplification in order to decrease manufacturing cost and increase reliability. How many moving parts does a phone-cam have, even ignoring the ratio of parts and physical controls to its almost limitless list of functions and versatility? The potential of cameras and phone-cams is only limited by the imagination of designers and developers. Users tend to have the least imagination of all. As can be seen from these topics on this forum, many people are blinkered and stuck in a rut.

What I think is happening is this: 35mm DSLRs are fast becoming the new medium format. Compact ILCs are becoming the format for the new amateur. Think of it as the old film days when professionals used plate camera and amateurs used 120/200 then it became professionals using 120/220 and amateurs using 35mm. Then they had a debacle with APS film where they tried to push an unwanted format that was not sufficiently different to take off.

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I take photos for my own pleasure. I write books for my own pleasure too. If people buy them then fine. If not then I don't really care. The fun was in writing them. Income is just icing on top of the cake.

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