Prepare yourselves for a new landscape

Started Nov 10, 2013 | Discussions thread
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meland OP
Senior MemberPosts: 5,336
Re: Nothing to see here, move along.
In reply to quadrox, Nov 11, 2013

quadrox wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

meland wrote:

quadrox wrote:

Sorry, but I think you forgot to specify what part of your description is different than todays reality. Millions of people make do with smartphone cameras as it is. So called professional photographers participate in advertisement where they praise this phone or that instead of a DSRL. Anything larger than a point and shoot will only be used by enthusiasts, and enthusiasts will always exists.

In other words, nothing to see here, move along.

"Nothing to see here, move along." That's such a cliché isn't it.

But that's what makes it fun

Of course enthusiasts will always exist.

Glad we agree on something.

The difference from today's reality is that the enthusiast's format probably won't be FF, APS-C or M4/3 but something with a sensor (of whatever technology/design that exists then) that is very much smaller.

Unless we get lenses that provide the same amount of light (would be huge), image quality, and shallow DOF capabilities that's just not going to happen.

I love shallow DOF but I don't think it's the driver some assume it is.

Agreed. But light gathering and image quality (sharpness, aberations, etc.) are easier to attain with larger lenses for larger sensors, that's just a simple fact. So unless we get some dramatic improvement in lens construction, I think POS style cameras are near their possible peak performance - And if you want more you just HAVE to go to a larger system.

Of course I'm talking about a more mainstream market now but my technical department used to receive more queries (complaints) that everything was not in focus than ever they did queries about how they could get less in focus.

I understand this, and I realize that the larger format markets will still shrink a bit more because there still are people who buy a DSLR "just because" without understanding the advantages and limitations. Once they understand they will switch to smaller formats.

But I believe that the vast majority of people has already made that switch, and there are only few people left who have no business buying larger cameras. Therefore I say we are pretty much already "there".

In that respect small sensors with their inherent large depth of field do suit more people than large sensor cameras with wide aperture lenses. It would indeed be a shame to lose that ability to differential focus but I also know manufacturers are looking at ways of enhancing the effect via software should there be the anticipated move to smaller sensors.

As for the rest of your original post, as was said before, the changes you foresee have already happened. But there will always be enthusiasts and gear heads that want more. There are still people who use MF (would if I could) or shoot film, and there will always be people who want a DSLR or MFT or what have you.

Yes indeed - but less of them. That was my point.

See above, I think the vast majority of people have already decided that smaller systems are good enough for them and have made that switch. Those that are still using larger systems do it (mostly) because it really is what they want or need.

I don't believe most people have already switched as you suggest. Sales and production figures certainly don't bear that out. There is a lag in the market in switching out because a variety of people are still telling new entrants to photography that DSLRs or M4/3, or whatever, is what they need if they want good results. And the alternatives are not quite compelling enough - yet.

Whether these well meaning people are Uncle Bobs who has been into photography for years, or camera shops who are staffed by people who are believers and who have stock to shift, or by photo magazines who also depend on preaching the gospel for advertising revenue, there are still a lot of them.

Given time and a compelling alternative these missionaries will have moved on and that, combined with a strong marketing message from the manufacturers, will eventually cause the majority to switch to a more compelling alternative.  Whether it is a better alternative (in terms of IQ) is another point altogether.

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