Olympus profit - the cat is out of the bag (a little early)

Started 9 months ago | Discussions thread
Eamon Hickey
Veteran MemberPosts: 3,094
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and, as expected, mirrorless is down
In reply to Abrak, 8 months ago

Just to add to the highlights you noted, several things stood out to me. Most prominently -- and because I like Olympus, I'm sorry to be saying this -- the part of the presentation materials concerning the camera business is an insult to any investor with a brain (as you noted elsewhere, Abrak). I'm going to temper my editorial comments from this point on, but you get the drift.

1. As was completely predictable (and predicted by many of us), mirrorless sales are down year-over-year. In other threads, many people have gone to tortured lengths to explain how Olympus ILC sales could be up while the rest of the market is down. Of course that was fantasy. Olympus acknowledges ILC sales are down, but won't say by how much. That decision to hide the specifics disturbs me. How bad is it?

Canon and Nikon, for example, have specified exactly how many units they are down year-over-year, and they have specified exactly how far they are falling short of original sales targets. And Olympus gives a figure for how much compacts are down (50%). Why not be forthright and say how much mirrorless is down? Instead, they tried the sleight-of-hand of creating slides about how many good reviews the E-M1 got on web sites. I won't say what I think of including that material in an earnings report.

2. As you noted, they are forecasting a 41% year-over-year increase in ILC sales for the second half of the year (i.e. October through next March). This in a market that is down by about 10% by value and 20% by units so far this year. It would take a miracle to achieve that forecast.

3. And since this part of the thread is based on a post I made about the nonsensical idea that the camera division is the R&D lab for medical, I'll post a slide that shows their R&D expenditures by business segment. They spend 4X as much on medical R&D as they do on camera R&D. Yes, medical has its own R&D, and it's much, much bigger than camera R&D. What a shock.

And here are two slides, where they note that a) mirrorless sales are down and b) mirrorless sales are falling short of sales targets. But again, they won't say by how much.

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