Mirrorless shipments surge....

Started 8 months ago | Discussions thread
Abrak
Senior MemberPosts: 1,336
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Re: Delta between mirrorless and SLRs has moved only fractionally
In reply to boggis the cat, 8 months ago

boggis the cat wrote:

peevee1 wrote:

The better metric is the "Jan.-Sep." comparison relative to last year. 'SLR' production is at 78.5% of last year whereas 'other' (includes "mirrorless") is at 77.8%. That doesn't seem very good.

You are looking at some wrong place.

I quoted production, not revenue. The OP was on about production.

Jan-Sep - worldwide revenue from DSLRs 82.4% of the same period previous year.

Non-reflex (meaning mirrorless) - 94.5%.

For medium-to-long term future sales, Asia market (the only long-term growth market among the specifically listed there, and already the biggest) excluding Japan is the most interesting:

DSLRs - 77.2%.

Mirrorless - 101.9%.

Quite a difference.

You have to factor in that DSLRs still dwarf 'mirrorless' (the category is "other"), so that 2% revenue increase is blown away by the 23% loss on a much larger revenue.

The situation is not healthy for anyone.

Nikon are responding with the DF, and it seems likely that all manufacturers will shift to EVFs and higher end equipment as soon as they can in order to reduce production costs and increase margin.

The numbers for Asia dont really surprise. A major stumbling block for the penetration of mirrorless is the existing stock of some 250m legacy lenses. There is a high barrier to entry for anyone to switch from his DSLR to a mirrorless - maybe they might buy a mirrorless as a supplementary system.

In markets where there is a lower penetration of ILC camera users to begin with, you might expect mirrorless to fair pretty well and do worse in markets which are more mature - which is roughly what you see.

Conversely, Canikon are in fact doing rather well due to lens sales. The 18% rise in FF lens sales in the first 9 months, pretty much makes up for the decline in DSLR sales, especially if as one suspects, lens margins are higher than ILC margins (gateway drug effect).

The stat I find most remarkable is that the lens market alone is now bigger than the whole of the point and shoot market.

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