Mirrorless shipments surge....

Started 11 months ago | Discussions thread
Grevture
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Sales, market shares and money earned ...
In reply to Abrak, 11 months ago

Abrak wrote:

amalric wrote:

Profits and market share are separate. While I remember that all camera makers sales were down last year, mirrorless were less down by a fair amount, if I am not mistaken.

So there would be market saturation and the effects of the downturn, but mirrorless would still increase market share.

Again this is typical of Asia (Ex Oriente Lux) but it's heartening if the percentage of mirrorless is almost doubling in the Americas.

That corresponds to the Long Term plan of Olympus and probably Panny. They never expected short term profits. That's probably why we don't see American camera companies

Am.

Actually it is by no means certain that mirrorless is going to gain market share against DSLRs this year. For instance if DSLRs ship the same as they did in September for each of the next 3 months, then they would ship a total of 14m units down 13% on 2012. If mirrorless shipped the same 355k units in September for the next 3 months then mirrorless would be 3.2, down 19% on the 4.0m shipped in 2012.

I see nothing heartening in mirrorless sales to the US. Total shipments from 8 mirrorless manufacturers has been 271,000 units in the first 9 months - down 40% compared to last year. In value terms, mirrorless accounts for less than 5% of the total digital camera market in the US. I really dont know why they bother.

- First of all, thanks to you and Cipher for the interesting statistics!

- Second, I boldfaced a part of your reply to point out one of the major problems so far with milc/csc sales numbers - so far they tend to almost only be about numbers of sold units, not value of sales ... It is after all the latter category which really matter to the camera companies, and that is the area where DSLR still looks pretty good in spite of dropping sales numbers. The same seem to be true of compacts, the part of the compact camera market which has been all but killed by smartphones is the cheap low-margin compacts while the higher margin luxury compacts (RX100 etc), superzooms (20x and above) and Tough-type (waterproof) compacts sell pretty well. In other words: much fewer compacts are sold, but the ones that are, are sold at higher prices and better margins.

The main issue with milc/csc sales in Europe, and from what I have seen here, in the US is that they only sell well (in numbers) either when on sale or when heavily advertised. While DSLR's sell reasonably well without much advertising or price drops.

- Third, one thing many people tend to forget when looking at sales numbers is they tend to only reflect numbers of sold cameras (camera bodies and/or camera kits). And here is another shortcoming so far of the mirrorless - they have not generated much of secondary sales of lenses and accessories, another area where DSLR shines. I have no numbers, but it seem a substantial part of the earnings of Canon and Nikon comes from selling lenses, flashes, battery grips etc. And these products have much, much better margins. And to accentuate this further, the retailers love DSLR's since they know the typical DSLR buyer also tend to buy backpacks and other camera bags, tripods, monopods, memory cards, filters - all products with very good margins.

- Fourth, while DSLR sales have dropped as of late, lets not forget they drop from a historically very, very high level. DSLR sales grew massively for the first ten years of this millennia, and while a drop of 20% sure is not welcome to Canon and Nikon, they are still well above their sales just three or four years ago ... In another thread, a guy made a interesting graph, I am not sure how correct it looks, but it seem ok:

Interesting post in another thread

My conclusion: The death of DSLR:s is probably not nearly as imminent as some tries to make it look. Personally, I am pretty sure we will have a smaller but healthy DSLR market share also five years from now. And very probably also in ten years time.

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