DSLR future prediction by EOSHD from Andrew Reid

Started Oct 31, 2013 | Discussions thread
jkoch2
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Mr. EOSHD Reid & All Consumer Cameras (not just DSLRs)
In reply to stan_pustylnik, Nov 1, 2013

stan_pustylnik wrote:

So far I found this article most interesting for DSLR predictions.

http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years

A. Reid forecasts the demise of all budget system cameras (DSLR or mirrorless), as the quality of smartphone cameras rises and as enthusiasts cease to see need to upgrade.  This goes beyond the observation that the P&S market is essentially near rigor mortis.

He is quite realistic about the fact that most people have no need whatever for a dedicated camera, if they can document their social or ceremonial experiences quite nicely with an all-round tool that fits in their pockets and always with them.

He thinks this is "good news" if it forces the surviving camera makers to focus on innovation for the high end niche.  For him this means putting a RED into a $2,500 full-frame camera, compatible with assorted cinema lenses.  He wants cameras that capture uncompressed 4k or 8k video at hyper bitrates.  If on-board flash memory is not enough, then enthusiasts can lug arround separate recording devices.

The goal: high grade music videos that win Zacuto (but not Sundance or even YouTube) type competitions, or which connoiseurs will spend hours to download in 250 mbps formats to see in RAW splendor at 24fps on large screens.  Very fine.

However, there is a certain unreality about this:

  1. Even Reid acknowledges that the vast public doesn't care a great deal about IQ and is happy to see sub-DVD resolution on screens revved up to 240 hz with ugly enhancements.
  2. RAW formats require massive memory and heaps of rendering time, which won't pay-off after compression to formats most viewers will actually use when viewing on their phone screens.
  3. Commercial clients won't pay extra for RAW 1080p or 4k, but might eventually demand it when it costs them nothing extra
  4. Absent the revenue support from consumer sales, the prices of enthusiast or small-pro stuff will have to rise.
  5. Canon and Nikon must still honor their still-photo roots and clientele, of which a quotient hates the intrusion of video worse than gallstone pain.
  6. Canon, Sony, and Panasonic don't want to ruin their dedicated camcorder franchises entirely.
  7. FF sensors are prone to moiré and FF gear is too bulky or difficult to focus for action or non-staged video.

Any video-oriented person probably stands to gain more from improved stabilization devices, audio capture, or editing techniques, than from ploughing money into stuff whose marginal refinements are not perceptible or of importance to most viewers.  "Superior low light performance" still looks "dark, yuck" to the ordinary eye.

But if, in 2015, an RX10ii with 4k video sells for under $1,200, hmmm....

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