Will Nikon be out of business in 5 years?

Started 6 months ago | Discussions thread
Eamon Hickey
Senior MemberPosts: 2,974
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indeed, general overall consumer market will grow
In reply to rhlpetrus, 6 months ago

rhlpetrus wrote:

All these doomsday predictions look only at trends in the industrialized countries. Surely markets there are not going to grow much and may actually shrink in many aspects.

Yes, there's post after post here -- and some blog articles cited here -- and elsewhere that talk about market saturation, and all of those posts and blog prognostications seem unaware that the overall consumer market will almost inevitably grow much larger than it is now as the huge populations of the so-called BRIC countries grow more affluent.

But all financial analysts and certainly all company executives are aware of these basic economic trends. Nikon's planning certainly takes these things into account.

I'm not sure what accounts for the fall off in ILC sales (and it's happening to both SLRs and mirrorless models) over the past 8-12 months. (The cratering of point-and-shoots sales over the past 3 years, on the other hand, is easy to figure out.)

It could be a temporary dip, as the camera companies seem to think (or at least are saying), caused by global economic sluggishness. But it could also be the end of a consumer market bubble. SLR cameras went through a bubble once before, peaking in the early-to-mid 1980s and falling by about 50% over the next 10-12 years before the advent of digital sparked a resurgence.

But in the long run, even if a bubble is bursting now, all those new middle-class consumer that will be emerging over the next few decades in the BRIC countries are a huge growth opportunity. Some small percentage of them will fall in love with photography, and they'll need advanced imaging devices to feed their passion. Somebody will be providing them.

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