Will Nikon be out of business in 5 years?

Started 11 months ago | Discussions thread
rhlpetrus
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Forums shares Re: The smaller players...
In reply to Olymore, 11 months ago

Olymore wrote:

Some of those smaller players have been around a long time and have been a small part of the market for a long time.
Canikon huge sales increases were predominantly due to the non enthusiast market buying the default choice. And it is that market which is shrinking.

The enthusiast market is a little different and people who are knowledgeable about photography are more likely to buy one of the smaller or specialised brands.

You only have to look at the forums here. 80% of the posts on here would be on the Canikon forums if enthusiasts reflected the overall market split and that certainly isn't the case.

Why 80%? They don't have 80% of the ILC market. They have 80%+ of the dslrs market, a different thing. The breakdwown here for the ILCs forums (Minolta, Leica and Kodak are in others, Panny does not have an ILC forum now, it's in mft) is:

62% looks pretty close to what likely is C/N participation in the ILC market. So, your argument does not hold.

So my predictions are,

All photography companies/ divisions will sell less cameras and shrink in size which may not be a problem for the camera companies if they cut their costs quickly enough

False in the long term, possibly true in the next few years. After that the emerging markets will come to rescue the survivors, since about 6/7 of the world population still live in countries with relatively low disposable income. Most people and these analysts think the world in 10 years will be the same as today's.

The market will become more specialised and niche.

Not necessarily, ILCs will still be divided into 3 categories, as ever, entry-level (<1,000USD body price), midrange (1,000-2,000 USD), prolevel (>2,000USD). My guess is that ML will become the dominant system, eventually, all makers doin them.

Cameras will rise in price due to lower volumes

Possibly, but not by much due to fierce competition.

Smaller players will increase their market share (of a smaller market) as they target the enthusiast looking for something a bit different (see Fuji for example).

I doubt that

Product cycles (and progress) will slow.

Not true, due to increasing competition.

Canikon will still be the biggest players.

True, about same shares as today is my guess, with some new players possibly showing up. My guess C/N and Oly, with Sony, will be the more relevant players. Pentax, well, I doubt them staying long.

I don't believe in these doomsday predictions, companies don't just die away that easily. It took Kodak more than 20 years to slowly die, and they tried as hard as they could to be out of touch with reality.

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