Nikon's 5 year plan...

Started Oct 23, 2013 | Discussions thread
chipmaster
Contributing MemberPosts: 841Gear list
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Re: Nikon's 5 year plan...
In reply to stevo23, Oct 24, 2013

Technology trends are hard to predict, sometimes you can be blindsided

P&S business is finished, all the people who bought these have smartphone and a smartphone is all one needs for most personal image capture.  The Nokia Lumina commercial is funny and accurate.  That pretty much sums up my experience, bunch of smart phones and me with DSLR.  3-5  years ago a few iPhone users, mostly P&S and handful of DSLR.   5-8 years a few more DSLR ( DSLR capabilities were amazing in early days ) and mostly P&S and a rare film guy.  Tomorrow with even more capable phones, with 100M run rates, huge computational power and software built in, ability to upload and share immediatly, almost no one cares much that a DSLR can take a superior image except for those blink of eye sports or image to be blown up, thus how big is this market over the next 5 years?

Professional, hobbiest/nostalgic is the only area that I see where you have an ongoing market.   For studio/Wedding/Art etc. etc. how much more does one need than a D800e/D4 or 1DMkX 5DMKIII?     The D5 / D900 if it does faster video won't get me to shell out thousands.   Does 12 FPS at 24Meg and 25600 ISO with every frame razor sharp, that won't get me to shell another dime.   Fancier and faster focusing lenses with more VR, that won't get me to shell out.    The professionals and crazy hobbiest will continue to buy, but how big is that market, is it big enough to plow the money into new chips, new sensors new optics, new factories.. likely not...      The amazing ride that digital enabled is the same amazing revolution that kills the growth to a small nice product, just like High-fidelity stereo or medium frame is what the business will look like.   Specialized, very expensive and slower innovation as there won't be demand to generate volumes to generage money to drive more innovation.

Canikon are finished as huge conglomerate with presence in magazines etc. etc.    They will be in the same space as Hasselblad and Leica, nich product line with long history.    Poorly managed they could end up like Kodak, Motorolla, Blackberry

 chipmaster's gear list:chipmaster's gear list
Nikon 1 V1 Nikon Df Nikon D810 Nikon AF-S Nikkor 24-70mm f/2.8G ED Nikon AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II +7 more
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