Why Thom is wrong...

Started 10 months ago | Discussions thread
Beach Bum
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Re: Think about it...warning, long post.
In reply to stevo23, 10 months ago

stevo23 wrote:

Richard wrote:

And Mirrorless is dead. Now before you go getting emotional, ponder the logic.

1.DSLRs act like mirrorless as they are right now. They push the mirror out of the way when they go into live view. The first objection is that the AF is faster on mirrorless, sure using on sensor AF on a DSLR. Right now that is true but if you think Canonikon is going to sit on the hands and not improve live view to the point it is better than current mirrorless, I think they are smarter than that. It will happen or Canonikon will die. Mirrorless will lose the AF advantage in live view.

2. Canikon already have EVF, on the back of the camera for live view. They also can use a laptop, tablet or smart phone as a remote. They have had this for some time. Mirrorless has no advantage there.

3. Canikon can make smaller dslrs with APS-C that will be able to compete with mirrorless or they can produce better EOSM and V1 units. Again, they cover Pro, Advanced amateur, beginner, small size DSLRs. (they both produce point and shoots too.)

At this point mirrorless has no advantage and has disadvantages compared to Canikon solutions.

So is mirrorless really going to be dead? No, I think M43 because of the number of lenses and market penetration even though small will survived as a niche market camera. BUT I only think there will be 2 major players, Sony and Panny, possibly Sony and Oly but Oly seems to be on its way out or at least to a reduced market share and segment at this point.

Thom can predict, but so can I. I think that cell phones will only get better and be good enough for the masses, and Canikon will take up the rest of the market with some mirrorless being niche while other disappear. Because Japanese culture is different, it is hard for me to predict what they will buy. I am sure budding Asian markets will embrace cell phones, with pros and advanced amatuers buying Canikon.

Canikons strength is not just DSLR, it is lenses APS-C for smaller cameras and FF which mirrorless lacks.

I think most camera people know these points already and if they are honest with themselves, they already know mirrorless in its present form is not where it is at.

- Compacts won't die completely, but Nikon have vowed to own what's left while Panasonic have vowed to reduce their compact efforts and focus on higher value/higher end cameras.

Any links for these claims. One thing is for sure. If Nikon owns the compact market, it'll be a sad day. You're literally talking about the best compact maker (Panasonic) vs the worst (Nikon). This would be worse than the camera phone for the camera market.

I've said it before, but Panasonic rarely exits anything. All they really need to do is invest more in advertising and possibly some restructuring. They already have a quality product. Plus they have much bigger money losers than their camera business, and it has a major upside. I don't believe they even list their camera business specifically with respect to losses/gains because I don't believe it's a significant enough chunk of their assets to do so.

- But there will not be enough demand to keep them all in business. Some or someone will exit. The companies who can hang on will dictate what survives. But one thing is likely - Canon and Nikon will survive.

Hopefully, they're eventually reduced to just players. Because I think they're damaging the camera market.

- If the trend is toward more enthusiasts and pros, then the demand for and appreciation for full frame will naturally be a larger portion of the market profile.

So, will mirrorless win? That's not the first question to ask in my mind. The question to ask is, who will survive? Then you can ask if and when things will change and what they will look like. Panasonic and Olympus probably can't cause this change on their own - they might not even continue making cameras. It will take the big three - Sony, Nikon and Canon.

Panasonic isn't exiting either. You're talking about a megacorp here. They make a lot of imaging gear from pro camcorders to compacts to ILCs, and, even then, it's small fries to them. If they really cared that much, they'd spend more on advertising of restructure before ever considering leaving.

To say otherwise is FUD IMO.

Ditto for Sony, almost word for word. Except Sony spends more on advertising.

So I think that when it becomes economical and sensible for Nikon and Canon to go mirrorless in their big cameras, they will. People who own DSLRs and previous film SLR owners bought into systems and tended to keep them through many marketing / sales cycles. I don't know what that cycle is/was, but it wasn't annual. That included lenses.

You're making the assumption that they can easily transition into mirrorless with a competitive market share. Both have already tried and failed.

And you can't take Thom Hogan or Ming Thien or Ken Rockwell as indications of what's about to happen. They're just human and expressing opinions.

I could say the same about you.

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