Why Thom is wrong...

Started Sep 25, 2013 | Discussions thread
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marvin t martian
marvin t martian Forum Member • Posts: 58
Re: Why Thom is wrong...

Thom can predict, but so can I. I think that cell phones will only get better and be good enough for the masses, and Canikon will take up the rest of the market with some mirrorless being niche while other disappear.

In the long run I think the market will trifurcate with cell phones at the low end (good enough for the masses), FF DSLRs at the top end for situations where IQ matters more than portability, and some form of mirrorless (be it interchangeable lens or large sensor fixed lens) filling the remaining cases where cell phones can't provide enough quality and FF DSLRs can't provide enough portability.

There are physical limits on how little DOF and how much low light IQ the tiny lenses on cell phones can provide. There are also physical limits on how small FF DSLRs can get. People who need/want something better than a phone cam but can't take the bulk of a FF DSLR will look for alternatives and mirrorless, with larger lenses than phones but less bulk than FF DSLR, will be one of those alternatives.

Whether any of the existing mirrorless brands ultimately comes to dominate the gap has a lot to do with whether any one of them develops a reputation for building mirrorless cameras that don't come with design flaws that restrict them to narrow use cases.

Mirrorless has been disappointing because all of the offerings so far have serious problems.  M4/3 has shutter shock. Olympus m4/3 has horrific IS in all but its 5-axis IBIS models. Panasonic m4/3 has issues with record histograms.  Fuji X and the Canon M have bad AF performance.  Nikon 1 is overpriced and has a small sensor. NEX has the level of durability expected from Sony. Etc.

It's premature to write-off mirrorless as a concept until someone releases a mirrorless camera that isn't self-sabotaging. If that doesn't happen--or if it does and the camera is a commercial failure--then mirrorless probably doesn't have a future.  I don't expect this, however.  In the long run, the gap between phones and FF DSLR is too big to be left unbridged.

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