Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Started 11 months ago | Discussions thread
Eamon Hickey
Veteran MemberPosts: 3,144
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generally correct, but you're reading CIPA wrong
In reply to jim stirling, 11 months ago

jim stirling wrote:

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

Jim, your general point about mirrorless sales is absolutely correct (not that it will ever penetrate the many closed minds on this forum).

But you're reading the CIPA data incorrectly. The numbers you cited are value (in 1,000s of yen), not units.

So your numbers are saying that for the first six months of this calendar year worldwide DSLR shipments had a value of 250 million thousand yen (i.e. 250 billion yen, or about 3 billion dollars), and worldwide mirrorless sales had a value of 43 million thousand yen (i.e. 43 billion yen or about 500 million dollars).

Just for context, the greatest sales year ever for interchangeable-lens cameras of all types was calendar year 2012 and the combined worldwide number was 20 million units (16 million DSLRs and 4 million mirrorless). 250 million units would be about 15-20 years worth of production, at recent sales rates. The peak of the consumer point-and-shoot market, in units, was about 130-140 million.

The unit numbers are right above the value numbers in CIPA's charts. So for the first six months of this year, the unit numbers are:

DSLR: 6.3 million units

Mirrorless: 1.3 million units

Percentages of worldwide ILC market share are:

DSLR: 85% by value; 83% by unit

Mirrorless: 15% by value; 17% by unit

Notes: these are factory shipments, which over short time periods (3-6 months), are not exactly the same as consumer sales, although quite close. The figures do not include Samsung's ILC business (the NX line), but it is tiny and might alter the numbers by 1 or 2 percentage points at most.

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