Thom Hogan: Impact of mFT on Nikon DX line

Started Sep 20, 2013 | Discussions thread
jim stirling
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Re: Missing the mark, somewhat
In reply to happypoppeye, Sep 21, 2013

happypoppeye wrote:

TrapperJohn wrote:

Nikon hasn't made any big leaps and bounds since the D3... unless you count the D90's video (a first, building on Oly's live view in the 330)... but that's also true of the dslr in general. It isn't seeing the big leaps and bounds of functionality that were evident in the mid 2000's.

The D7100's greatest competition isn't the EM1. It's the D7000. The D7100 didn't improve on it all that much, so Nikon lost much of their largest potential customer base: D7000 owners. Not so much a Nikon problem as an industry problem. Canon's sales of 5DIII were lower than expected for the same reason - many 5DII owners decided that the improvements didn't justify the expense. In both cases, the global recession didn't help matters any.

Sony... until Sony learns how and especially why to build good lenses, and lots of them, they'll remain a perennial also-ran. It's the most common reason people choose µ43 over NEX: not much glass, and what little they have is quite large.

What Nikon faces is what any camera company heavily vested in the dslr design faces: stagnation. The design has been pushed about as far as it can go. Sensor tech is at the point where further improvement does not yield much in the way of tangible results under typical photo circumstances, so the large sensor advantage isn't nearly what it once was. The optical viewfinder might get better with digital overlays, but it's expensive to do that, and still doesn't deliver the preview and review modes of the EVF. The only real improvement that can be made is - size. And the dslr's VF, legacy film lens mount and registration distance limit how much it can be improved there.

The dslr has also lost the enthusiasm and excitement that drove much of it's booming sales in the 2000's. Where are those great leaps and bounds happening today? Right here. Look at the dpr top ten clicked list today: two high end compacts, three dslr's, and five mirrorless. Including one, the EM5, that's been on that list since January, 2012.

Perhaps you should look at the top selling cameras in each area to see what is actually selling clicks on DPreview do nothing for the balance book.

There is exactly one mFT camera in the top 50 sellers in Amazon USA

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_hi_3?rh=n%3A172282%2Cn%3A!493964%2Cn%3A502394%2Cn%3A281052&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776702

In the UK not even one mFT makes it into the top 75 selling cameras

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=sr_pg_1?rh=n%3A560798%2Cn%3A!560800%2Cn%3A560834%2Cn%3A560836&ie=UTF8&qid=1379776931

What about Japan surely mFT will be wiping the floor with its huge oversized DSLR rivals , one mFT in the top 20, 6 out of the top 10 selling models are DSLR’S

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

For a more complete overview have a look through the CIPA that show all cameras shipped from Japan .Here are the total numbers for the first 6 months of the year

http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf

Almost 6 times more DSLR cameras shipped than all mirrorless put together { 250 million compared to 43million } Even in Japan the most successful market in the world for mirrorless 65% of models shipping are DSLR, in the worst market for mirroless the USA you are hitting 90% DSLR. These are cold hard facts in black and white from non biased sources.

That enthusiasm may not be reflected directly in current sales, but it's pretty unambiguous handwriting on the wall. That's where things are headed.

How about some wide primes? The one point I disagree with on your post is that the "design has been pushed about as far as it can go". m43 has many short end primes ...Nikon/Canon have none, zip, nadda, zero. Nothing under a 36mm equivalent.

We have the 12mm F2 ,which does the same job as a 16mm F2.8mm on Nikon APS, regards wide primes you have the 10.5mm F2.8 fish eye , the wider 14mm F2.8 and 16mm f2.8 all from Nikon, then you have the independents , including the rather cheap Samyang 14mmF2.8. The problem is not that the lenses don't exist they clearly do the problem is they are typically FF designs and therefore much larger than they need to be.

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