Warming whoops: Scientists debate the falling rate of rising temperatures

Started Sep 18, 2013 | Discussions thread
boggis the cat
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Temperature still rising, Arctic ice still shrinking
In reply to kcbeatty, Sep 19, 2013

kcbeatty wrote:

The world has warmed 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade over the past 15 years, a fraction of the 0.2ºC (0.36ºF) per decade rate confidently predicted by the U.N. six years ago, according to a leaked copy of the foremost climate report in the world.

“The rate of warming over the past 15 years (0.05°C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (0.12°C per decade),” the draft report states.

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/17/is-global-warming-actually-far-lower-than-scientists-predicted

That’s the upshot of a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change

that compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the study’s author told FoxNews.com, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming.

IPCC AR4 Models

On average, the predictions forecasted two times more global warming than actually occurred.

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/12/climate-models-wildly-overestimated-global-warming-study-finds/?intcmp=related

That depends on which models (or 'predictions') are being discussed, doesn't it?  Are these the AR4 models?  There are only ten models used in AR4, so where have these '117 climate predictions' come from?

It appears not to be hugely relevant to the AR4 models, as they have proven to be quite accurate.

Despite Doubling Down, Climate Change Article Still Very Misleading

However, over recent years, that increase has flattened considerably. This is almost certainly due to the extra heat being absorbed by deep ocean water; measurements have confirmed that. Apparently, the rate that heat from the ocean's surface could be transported to lower depths was not well determined at the time. But bear in mind, that extra heating exists. It's real. It's in the water, not the air, and so surface temperatures over land have not increased as fast as the models initially predicted. Rose doesn’t mention this.

But that heat is still there, building up. At the same time, the ocean surface has a natural oscillation in temperature, up and down, over timescales of a decade or more. This affects land surface temperatures on short time scales like a few years. We're in a downswing right now, which is another reason temperatures over land have flattened.

But that won't last forever. The ocean surface will warm once again, the heat inside will be released, and temperatures will go up again. It's difficult to say exactly when, but it won’t last forever.

Also there's this:

About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013,"

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/09/arctic-sea-ice-up-60-percent-in-2013/?intcmp=related

"Whopping increase" shown at far right of graph.

Also, the "predictions of an 'ice-free Arctic in 2013'" is a misrepresentation. One scientist suggested that the Arctic may be ice free as early as 2016 plus or minus three years (where the 2013 is coming from), while most believe that this will take place later -- probably around 2030. Recent faster ice loss have caused most scientists to revise their estimates down, however, so I wouldn't rule out 2016 just yet. (Indeed, Russia is expecting to be dealing with a lot of summer shipping by mid-decade and is working on how to increase their maritime patrols to cover the Arctic.)

The UN will officially release the full report soon. Some how this information was leaked out ahead of the report. They are scrambling to try and rewrite the reports to make them not as damaging to the AGW predictions.

No, they aren't doing anything of the sort. That isn't a 'mistake' of any sort, it's a straight-up lie.

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