Will Thom's prediction come true? Locked

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Will Thom's prediction come true?
10 months ago

The challenge for Sigma--the current owner of Foveon--is whether they can move fast or well enough to keep the bigger companies from eventually just having their own, better, three-layer solutions. (Hard hat back on) My prediction is that Sigma will not stay in front. Any advantage they have today at the sensor could be lost in the not too distant future if other camera companies deliver three-layer sensors, which leaves Sigma competing with cameras that still have catching up to do in other technologies.

This is another aspect that you have to look at in evaluating technologies of the future: viability. Can the first mover stay the best mover? In the case of Foveon and Sigma and three-layer sensors, I see the answer as likely being no. In the case of Lytro and Toshiba with light field, the answer is also likely no.

[MOD: edited to decrease inflammatory nature of original post]

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