MFT shipments down

Started Apr 26, 2013 | Discussions thread
Eamon Hickey
Veteran MemberPosts: 3,148
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five quarters is an eternity
In reply to Jorginho, Apr 27, 2013

Jorginho wrote:

- 5 quarters is not meaningfull. You cannot see a trend based on 5 rather fluctuating quarters

Five quarters is 15 months. Sorry, but that's an eternity in business. Companies regularly go from profitable to bankrupt in less time than that. Entire workforces regularly get laid off and re-hired based on sales trends over shorter periods than that. Presidents and prime ministers get re-elected, or not, based on economic performance over shorter periods than that.

Now, in this particular case, the quarters do show some confusing fluctuations -- there's ups and downs, not just downs, so I agree that they don't show necessarily a clear trend.

That said, the key figure that Mr. Hogan is highlighting is the year-over-year figure. Mirrorless shipments are down more than 40% compared to the same period last year. That's a pretty important number in a business that should be growing faster than any other segment of the camera business. It's telling, and MichaelKJ is also quite right to think so. It definitely surprises me.

Mr. Hogan noted a few weeks ago that January 2013 showed lower shipments than January 2012, and I wasn't ready to give too much significance to one month year-over-year results. But a quarter is much more telling, especially since the quarter in question includes March, which is the fiscal year-end for most Japanese companies and traditionally a month when they try to ship as much product as possible to maximize their annual results.

All that said, I'm guessing this dip -- and there's no question that it's a surprising dip -- is more a reflection of global economic conditions than anything specific about the mirrorless camera business.

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