Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
Shop cameras & lenses ▾
Erik Magnuson Forum Pro • Posts: 12,237
Re: It's not a zero sum game

nelsonal wrote:

Thom's first line:  "I've added a moving average line to illustrate a point: note that the slope of the DSLR growth is higher than that of the mirrorless growth."

I read this as his belief that the first derivative is lower for mirrorless, which it's not, yet.

No, because his slope is for delta in millions of units.  Projections for 2013 are DSLR sales grow by 1.6 million units.  MILC by 1 million units.   Growth in units is 1.6x higher for DSLRs.   How can mirrorless catch up with DSLR with this trend?   You have to assume some disruption of the current trends.

I'd be cautious extrapolating the 2013 rate of deceleration too far out.  DSLR's also show a pretty substantial deceleration (20% growth to 10%)

Yes, the market is not infinitely elastic.

I'd expect mirrorless growth to continue to slow but moderately,  narrowing spread between the DSLR growth rate and current rate of 20%

Slow but moderately doesn't cut it when you are that far behind in units.

-- hide signature --

Erik

 Erik Magnuson's gear list:Erik Magnuson's gear list
Canon EOS 5D Mark II Canon EOS 450D Sigma SD10 Sony Alpha NEX-5 Nikon D3200 +28 more
Post (hide subjects) Posted by
(unknown member)
(unknown member)
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
(unknown member)
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
(unknown member)
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
Biggs23 MOD
(unknown member)
(unknown member)
Keyboard shortcuts:
FForum PPrevious NNext WNext unread UUpvote SSubscribe RReply QQuote BBookmark MMy threads
Color scheme? Blue / Yellow