Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
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Erik Magnuson
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Re: It's not a zero sum game
In reply to nelsonal, Apr 13, 2013

nelsonal wrote:

Thom's first line:  "I've added a moving average line to illustrate a point: note that the slope of the DSLR growth is higher than that of the mirrorless growth."

I read this as his belief that the first derivative is lower for mirrorless, which it's not, yet.

No, because his slope is for delta in millions of units.  Projections for 2013 are DSLR sales grow by 1.6 million units.  MILC by 1 million units.   Growth in units is 1.6x higher for DSLRs.   How can mirrorless catch up with DSLR with this trend?   You have to assume some disruption of the current trends.

I'd be cautious extrapolating the 2013 rate of deceleration too far out.  DSLR's also show a pretty substantial deceleration (20% growth to 10%)

Yes, the market is not infinitely elastic.

I'd expect mirrorless growth to continue to slow but moderately,  narrowing spread between the DSLR growth rate and current rate of 20%

Slow but moderately doesn't cut it when you are that far behind in units.

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