Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
nelsonal
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Re: It's not a zero sum game
In reply to Erik Magnuson, Apr 13, 2013

Erik Magnuson wrote:

nelsonal wrote:

But if we're considering growth the base figure matters.

That's why you have to take the 2nd derivative to project the change in growth.  Mirrorless is flattening compared to DSLR.  Try plotting just the sales delta in millions of units w/o the base level (which is what Thom's trend line does.) That will show if MILC is really gaining ground in terms of units (and likely dollars).  Mirrorless growth in percentage or market share matters  only if you assume that every mirrorless sale is one less DSLR sale OR that the market is infinitely elastic.

This is very true but is quite a different point than the one Thom is making.

That's not how I read Thom's posting.

Thom's first line:  "I've added a moving average line to illustrate a point: note that the slope of the DSLR growth is higher than that of the mirrorless growth."

I read this as his belief that the first derivative is lower for mirrorless, which it's not, yet.

I'm not sure I'd agree yet that mirrorless sales are doomed to continue to have a rapidly declining 2nd derivative,

It's the only conclusion you can draw from this data series other than no conclusion.

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Erik

I'd be cautious extrapolating the 2013 rate of deceleration too far out.  DSLR's also show a pretty substantial deceleration (20% growth to 10%) so Chinese economic data is likely a major factor in both results.  I'd guess that it's a bigger factor weighing on mirrorless results than DSLRs, if for no other reason than Asian nations are closer linked with China than Western nations, and mirrorless have been more popular there as well.  If I were to make a forecast, presuming China continues at a pace similar to this year, I'd expect mirrorless growth to continue to slow but moderately,  narrowing spread between the DSLR growth rate and current rate of 20% (ie if I were predicting a 3 year average of 10% growth for DSLRs).  I'd predict a growth rate of 16-18% in 2014 15% in 2015 and 12% to 14% in 2016.  As an ongoing matter, I'd be watching Asian economic data pretty carefully.

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