Is FF sensors going to slowly phase out?

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
Erik Magnuson
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Re: Those are APS compacts with slow lenses
In reply to forpetessake, Apr 13, 2013

forpetessake wrote:

I don't know what information you have found on the web making you saying that,

Everything written about semi-conductor manufacturing.

but what I've seen even from 5 years ago the APS-C sensors were selling in the range of $50-100 pop, and some estimates indicated that FF sensors were 5-10 times more expensive, i.e. comfortably in the range of $250-1000. I've found costs quoted $43 for a 4/3rds sensor, $91 for an APS-C and $650 for a full frame sensor in 2008. I would expect FF sensors to be well under $500 now as the production volumes increased and R&D and equipment costs being amortized. Also margins on FF sensors were historically substantial and will be falling as the case with every other commodity, so there are all reasons to believe that $100 goal will be achieved sooner rather than later.

You have some data, but draw the wrong conclusion  still fooled by Moore's observation thinking. Costs are decreasing, but slowly (i.e. more units means lower per unit for fixed costs, yeilds may increase but you can't increase yield past 100%, etc.)   The final factor you fail to consider is that 24x36mm sensors cannot be made "single shot" as that exceeds the area+resolution of the stepper reticles.   So making 24x36mm sensors requires MORE steps than smaller sensors (increasing time to process a wafer and decreasing yields.)  Here is where experience and technology are increasing yields but again much more slowly than you get with memory/cpu die shrinkage.

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Erik

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