Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
nelsonal
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Re: It's not a zero sum game
In reply to Erik Magnuson, Apr 12, 2013

Erik Magnuson wrote:

Look at the actual numbers:

2012-2013:  DLSR up 1.6 million units, MILC up 1 million units.

2010-2013: DSLR sales up 6.4 million units, MILC up 5.5 million units.

Over any period you choose, sales of DSLRs have grown more units than mirrorless.  As a percentage,  it's less but only because the base figure is different.

But if we're considering growth the base figure matters.

There can be plenty of debate about whether the trend will continue but it is an incorrect conclusion (drawn from looking at on the wrong type of chart to compare rates of change).

It's a different trend fit to the data.  You can see on your graph where a 2nd derivative shows the mirrorless sales are flattening out (i.e. slope of each segment is lower than previous segment.) Combine this with the actual numbers and mirrorless will never exceed DSLR sales unless you project a different trend than shown there.

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Erik

This is very true but is quite a different point than the one Thom is making.  Also it depends on how much one expects mirrorless to continue to flatten.  The listed DSLR sales went from 20% growth in 2012 to 10% forecast in 2013, so there appears to be plenty of room for both to bounce around.  I'm not sure I'd agree yet that mirrorless sales are doomed to continue to have a rapidly declining 2nd derivative, but it's incorrect to say that they already have a lower first derivative (which was Thom's point).

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