Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
Erik Magnuson
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It's not a zero sum game
In reply to nelsonal, Apr 12, 2013

nelsonal wrote:

The glance conclusion is incorrect, here's the numbers on a log scale 2012-2013:

Notice the slopes. The rate of growth of mirrorless remains above that of DSLRs.

Look at the actual numbers:

2012-2013:  DLSR up 1.6 million units, MILC up 1 million units.

2010-2013: DSLR sales up 6.4 million units, MILC up 5.5 million units.

Over any period you choose, sales of DSLRs have grown more units than mirrorless.  As a percentage,  it's less but only because the base figure is different.

There can be plenty of debate about whether the trend will continue but it is an incorrect conclusion (drawn from looking at on the wrong type of chart to compare rates of change).

It's a different trend fit to the data.  You can see on your graph where a 2nd derivative shows the mirrorless sales are flattening out (i.e. slope of each segment is lower than previous segment.) Combine this with the actual numbers and mirrorless will never exceed DSLR sales unless you project a different trend than shown there.

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Erik

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