Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
nelsonal
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Re: Figures show mirrorless gaining ground?
In reply to Mike CH, Apr 12, 2013

Mike CH wrote:

nelsonal wrote:

The trend curve shows the same thing (faster growth for mirrorless).

If we are looking at the same graph, no. The lower curve has a less steep slope.

The glance conclusion is incorrect, here's the numbers on a log scale 2012-2013:

Notice the slopes. The rate of growth of mirrorless remains above that of DSLRs.  There can be plenty of debate about whether the trend will continue but it is an incorrect conclusion (drawn from looking at on the wrong type of chart to compare rates of change).

Thom and others here, seem to be confused by the # of additional sales vs rate of growth.  If one sells 20m units one year and 24m units the next, the increase of 4 million units means a 25% growth rate.  If another product sells 5 m units one year and 7 m units the next the unit increase of 2 million units is a 40% growth rate.

That is all well and good. But the trend end curves shown are linear. Whether they are a best fit is another question. At a first glance, the numbers do not seem  exponential. Difficult to tell from the graph, though.

Here's a close up of the first few periods of the 20%/8% growth.  Notice that plotted linearly, because it's difficult to see the differences in the second derivative, the 8% growth line has a bigger slope, even though it's growing more slowly.

Change to the log plot, and the differences in growth rate become obvious.

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